Daily Hand Quiz

Ah if only the shove wasn’t such an overbet you’d be good to go here.

He check-raised the ace and led the river so you know he likes his hand the question is will he be able to get away from it?

I think if you shove here he folds. He’s played back at you hard and you’re still up for playing for stacks. Its screams so much strength that I think a TAG will lay their hand down here and acknowledge the slow played 9.

There shouldn’t be much doubt that we have the best hand so this is just about maximising our value bet on the river.

The Min – 3x raise would be correct if there had’ve been only minor action on the turn and we thought the river bet was a blocking bet / bluff.

However given the check-raise on the turn I think you can 3x his bet here and expect to get paid off most of the time.

Our image is aggressive, our opponent seems to like his hand so 3x his raise and watch him tank.

He’ll want to know what you’ve got and will look you up most of the time here.

Hmmm….. on second thoughts. He has a nine. Raise all in.

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black fair Reply:
July 16th, 2009 at 12:34 am

On third thoughts stick with the 3x raise. He’ll shove over the top if he has a nine anyway.

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Raise 3x+

I would interpret an all-in as, “I have 3 9s with a good kicker or a fullhouse.” I think that is a believable story and I would believe it in opponents shoes. Call is silly, the Q9, K9,109, for some players any 9 will pay the reraise with a call so that’s losing a lot of value. Chances are because he checked preflop and on the flop he didn’t have an overpair so the JJ and AA fullhouses are very reduced in probability. AJ and 66 are POSSIBLE but of reduced likelyhood due to the check preflop. Most likely we have this hand locked up.

So call and all-in are out, so do we min bet or 3x+raise? I think min bet is more suspicous because it seems likely it would be unsuccessful at bluffing an opponent who’s shown strength out, he may determine bluffing is not our motive which is indeed the case and thus he will give value up less frequently. It will suggest more strength than 3x+raise and thus will be called down with the same or less frequency as the hands that would call the 3xraise. If we hold the winning hand, that is called losing value. So 3xraise it is and hopefully he has a 9 or boat we can beat 66, 69.

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Voted min-raise. V has shown strength with the turn c-r and riv lead. What are possible holdings? With three 9s out, probability of v holding the case 9 is unlikely. I think a TAG with 66 would have waited until the riv to pop an agg opponent. Nevertheless c-r turn with 66 is certainly possible. Perhaps the v is holding a weak ace – A6, A7, A8 and thinks it is good since hero limped pre-flop. At worst they are thinking chop. A large raise will get 66 (and 9x) to call/raise, however Ax will fold imo. I’ll try and get a bit of value here with a mini.

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if he has A9, we are going broke and that is fine. If he has some other hand with a 9 in it we will get paid off and may even get raised all in after we bet. So if he has just an ace, then min raise is best, I would even consider the absolute min raise after thinking about it for a while. An all in from us will get him to fold any ace.

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the guy could have anything becaus eits an unraised pot, so 9x is the most probable hand, but wouldn’t be surprised if he’s flat out bluffing. raise it 3x and don’t really worry about A9 too much, because if he was slow playing the flop with the trips and his hand improved on the turn he would probably check-call and let us fire another barrell on the river

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I too raise 3x. If the villain was bluffing he obv. won’t call our river bet. If the CR was an ace then we MIGHT get a crying call but I still feel that minraise would lose value when figuring in the cases where the opponent holds a 9 – which does look likely here given the action.

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I agree with most of you, pop it about 3x

I think his call/fold threshold leaves him with around 10-11k chips. I don’t think he’ll call anything that leaves him with single digit (thousand) chips.

This is a good quiz question because it’s a fine line to maximize value here. He’s got a strong hand, but is very likely to fold to a shove and only min raising is a missed opportunity for extraction.

I dont like 6400 at all b/c it’s conveniently 4k more and <6400 is a little light…looks too much like a “call me please!” bet.

6600-6900 is where i’m settling.

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Jeff Reply:
July 16th, 2009 at 10:16 am

Correction:

Upon further considertion, i like the full 3x to 7200

…it still leaves him with 10,800 and can still be considered a spewey move w/ a 9 from someone with our image.

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We have an aggressive image. This is the kind of hand where you get an aggressive image to pay out. I’m not worried that I’m behind as AA should would have tried to build the pot with a value bet after flop and/or turn, and JJ check raise after turn with A showing is just odd (not to mention no preflop raise. A9 has some credibility here, but given the TAG image, I would expect some action before my turn bet. More likely, he’s holding Ax or 9x.

At this point, calling is out of the question. I read that I’m ahead with a very slim chance of being behind to a monster hand, so I’ll take my chance in building more payout. The question is how much. I don’t like a min raise here unless I think he will 3 bet which would actually spook me a bit.

What does villain read? I have a pretty big range given my aggressive image and tepid play to this point. A big bet doesn’t really narrow my range. And a big overbet can easily be interpreted as a semi bluff with suspect holdings. Ax might even call hoping for a split pot.

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What if we have K8 instead?

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3x raise, then hit myself for open limping on the button w/ J9s, then thank the poker gods for not punishing my horrible play

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Wvery aggressive. I am big blind. Det is how I slow play my aces to take all your monies and stick it in you, Mr. Aggressive. Ha, I fool you with obvious pot build check raise on turn so you think I am doing somethink tricky. I hef been watching you stealink my blinds and I know if you have a 9 dis is how to get all your monies.

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What’s the point of the open limp on the button with a niceish starting hand like this?

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raise 3x. first of all, we have the best hand. if hes got the case 9 with an ace, oh well, thats just a cooler. pocket jacks and pocket aces seem very unlikely.

so, now…..air will fold to any raise. a shove looks too strong against a villain who’s shown a lot of strength. he knows we probably wouldnt shove without the goods here…..and he’ll be forced to make a huge call for his tournament life. he’s been representing a strong hand, if we raise and he wasnt bluffing, he’ll at least call, if not come over the top. a min-raise loses value….anything that calls the min raise calls the 3x.

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3x is the best, not to big not to small… free money to play poker at: pokerstrateg y.xxom/u2YAUB

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So, I’ve thought through all of this, and it looks like this is a shoving situation. The V checked the flop, waitied till the turn hit with an ace, and reraised you, then bet into the river. The line looks like one of two things, he either has a nine of an ace. Most a likely a nine. The arguments for raising 3x and u will get paid off with an ace, where the shove won’t. And thee argument also goes, if he does have a nine, he will reraise you all in, so 3xing is the best play b/c, you get the aces to pay off, and u get to stack the nines anyway.

The only problem, is the small percent of the time when he does have a nine, but only calls, this can happen more often then you think, especially if the kicker is low, and he is a good player, as experianced players know that when there is a huge pot building, and trips on the bored, if often means another player has trips as well, and posesibly with a bigger kicker, or a full house (especially when they check the flop, then start playing very strongly, classic slowplay)….one of the reasons is because if they r 2 of 1 card on the bored, it gives less things other ppl can make, also, we are pretty deepstacked, and the logics of deepstack poker dicktate that oftentimes when we have something real nutty, it’s a good idea to shove, because even if he calls only once in a while, we get a lot more then if we just squeeze a few extra bets out with smallish raises. Look at the stack sizes, he just he just has to make a call with a nine, weak kicker one time out of about every 4 for us to lose equity by raising 3x and not shoving….if he has an a9, aa, or jj, that is just bad luck, while he will call with all in witha nine he might not come over the top all the time.

Shove, hope he has a nine and calls.

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Actually, I just thought about it again..and now I’m not so sure, lol. The real heart of the question is what to do when has an ace, aces and jacks, or a nine with a real bad kicker, because if he has a worse, or better boat, or nine with a good kicker, all the money is going in the pot no matter what, and we will win or loose (mostly win)…..Lets go through this.
The trouble with my last analysis, I think is that it might be flawed, because if against a weak nine, if you go all in, he might actually fold, whereas if you reraise 3x there is a very good possibility he will interuprt that as an “I have a pretty good ace, raise.” and shove himself.

On the other hand…..dahm getting the most value here is real confusing….I dunno, lol.

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First of all we are fairly ahead here. I think the only possible hand that have us beat is only A9. JJ and AA will be raised pre-flop as we were deep and he was OOP.

I will raise for value here for about almost 3x like 7500 in order to make an ace call.

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