Tough spot.

Blind vs Blind can get a little crazy because our opponent can easily make this move with light holdings.

If we were against an aggressive opponent I’d just shove it in this spot.

Without a read though? Well if our opponent is playing based on a hand then we aren’t in good shape.

Against Top or middle pair we’re winning 47%
Against AK we’re winning 39%
Against Two pair we’re winning 37%
Against a set we’re winning 27%

We don’t have the odds to just call here to see the turn plus our stack size means we are committed if we decide to play.

So its raise/fold or shove into an opponent we have no read on who is showing lots of strength when we hold a marginal drawing hand.

Toss it and go find another table.

Ship it. We only need a small amount of FE for this move to be +EV as our hand is 48% against an opponent holding a K.

A lot of people advocated call in the archive based on the pot-odds. But our odds to win this hand our based on seeing two cards. There is absolutely no way we have the odds to call if we fold the turn and our odds to hit our draw on the next card are obviously half that of hitting it by the river.

We cannot call here and fold the turn. So unless we think calling here sets us up for a free river card we may as well shove the flop for the fold equity.

Personally I don’t see our opponent checking to us on the turn. They aren’t slow playing this hand on the flop so what is there to think they would slow down on the turn.

We definately should’ve just called. If we think our opponent is c-betting light in this spot floating the flop with our draw is the right play, not raising.

@ Richard

That’s some pretty marginal +EV and you’re only considering a portion of his range.

To believe we have fold equity against a preflop raise, flop bet, flop re-raise and then range them on a weak king?

Even if we believe we have fold equity here. Even if we believe they just have a king. That is +EV by the smallest amount that variance and rake alone makes it unprofitable.

Call, check-fold turn if no A or club hits and he doesn’t give you odds to call.

Call to preserve value and for small implied odds. If he holds Kcxc and you spike one of the 7 clubs, you’ll double up.

At this level I place a weak king at the top of his range in this spot - SB vs BB a flop 3bet is pretty standard. Rake is obv EV neutral.

I voted in the minority - fold. Tough to do, but I don’t believe we can get paid by calling and making a flush. Looks like the SB has a K, although could be holding something like A-high, 78. Problem is that a Kx may be K6 or K4. There is no strong read, so shoving does not sit well with me. Hopefully the weak play can be used positively later on.

I voted:

Tell him you know where he lives and that if doesn’t fold you’ll kill his family