Call, but think about raising.

I wouldn’t consider folding this for a second.

I’d prefer to know what sort of hands the MP player limps with but for this spot I’m going to assume he’s not going to 3-bet.

As a call its $840 to call into a pot that most likely will be just under 5K when we see a flop. The implied odds mean we clearly have value to set mine our tens.

If this was a cash game I’d 3-bet in this spot but I prefer to see flops in tournaments and a call here is quite cheap for a shot at stacking off the original raiser.

I voted fold, but after careful consideration, I’ll go with call.

Let’s examine our three options as a case can be made for calling and folding

Raise: You raise 4 or 5000. The original raiser will know you are committed to the hand and will have to make a decision whether to play for all his chips against a TAG’s reraise. If no one else has a substantial hand, they should fold and you scoop a nice pot to add 22% to your stack. If player D slow-played a big hand, you are screwed. If player E has JJ, QQ, KK, or AA, you are likewise screwed. Player G has shown substantial weakness by not raising and will likely not call in the face of your strength despite the drawing to flop odds because the hand he is drawing to may already be beat.

I’ll say 15% D limped with an overpair while 31.1% E has an overpair.

That means for your raise there is a 58.5% neither has an overpair. If D doesn’t have an overpair, having called then seen a tight player raise and another tight player reraise, he will fold.

If E doesn’t have an overpair but has a decent hand ie a hand within the range assigned to him of AJo+ KQs+, 1010+, he will likely still race with you due to 3000 bet with 7000 to win which is larger than his remaining stack by reraising allin.

But you have nothing held by E dominated while some of his holdings such as the overpair dominate you. A tie-lose scenario is hardly worth getting involved in.

Call: If player D didn’t limp in with a big pair he will probably call. If he did, he will reraise and let you know in which case you will fold. Upside: From preflop action, you will be able to only worry about E having an overpair and be knowledgable that D and G having one is unlikely. There is a 30% the flop will come all unders that aren’t all of the same suit which is greater than your likely contribution to the pot preflop: 25% contribution with 4 players. There is also an additional 9% chance that you will flop a set, so about 39% of the time you will have a playable hand and 61% a hand with an over on the board in a 4 way pot which implies check-fold.

For my pot-flop equity vs E, I assign him the following range: AJo+, KQs, 1010+.

card combinations of overs: 3*16+4=52
tie: 1
overpair: 4*6=24.

total card combinations: 77

After the flop :
You are 74.4% versus 2 overs.
50% vs tie.
8.4% vs overpair without a set.

your winning cc versus opponent’s range when postflop all unders: .774*52+.5*1+.084*24=41.2

Your winning percentage versus opponent’s range when postflop is all unders: winning cc/ total cc = 41.2/77=53.5%

If you flop a set, you are 96.7% versus 2 overs and 91.4% favorite versus the overpair

Your winning cc with set: .967*52+.914*24=95.0% favorite

So if you call preflop and D raises, you fold
If you call pf and D calls, 30% of the time non-monochromatic unders will flop and you will be 53.5% favorite and 9% of the time for any flop, you will flop a set and be a 95.0% favorite.

So is the investment worth it?
I’ll say 15% of the time D repops it preflop with an overpair.

EV: D repops it 15% preflop with overpair and you fold.
frequency: 15%
result: -1120

D call preflop and 1 or more overs flop and you don’t hit a set:
frequency: .85*.61=.519
result: -1120

D calls preflop, flop comes all non-monochromatic unders. E raises, you reraise, and E completes due to odds and your 1010 winds.
frequency: .85*.30*.535=.136
result: +10330

D calls preflop, flop comes all non-monochromatic unders. E raises, you reraise, E completes due to odds your hand loses
frequency: .85*.30*.465=.119
result: -7434

D calls preflop, you hit a set and win
frequency: .85*.09*.95=.073
result:+10330

D calls preflop, you hit a set and lose
frequency: .85*.09*.05=.0038
result:-7434

sum of linear combination of frequency*result=
= +501 chips.

Thus we stand to benefit by around 500 chips on average by calling here and playing reasonably after the flop with our value coming from winning a race situation and set value.

Many of the unaccounted-for factors revise our EV down. For example, an opponent (not E) hitting a set while we have an overpair.

Also, my analysis didn’t include if we hit a set with a monochrome board, in which rare case our expection would be lowered by the flush draw.

I also assumed E would ship after the flop with air 100% of the time due to his stacksize, which isn’t accurate because there are some missed boards with 4 players that someone with air won’t ship with when you have a set, in that case though, you will likely get paid due to stack size vs pot by someone else, perhaps less or more handsomely.

Sidenote: With regards to the 1% of the time the unders are of the same suit you are either a slight dog in a coin flip against 2 overs with 1 over suited to the board, crushed by an overpair, or crushed by the made flush. I am not comfortable playing tie-lose situations with a small to mediumish pot for all my stack and will likely check-fold there.

Fold: There just isn’t enough value to compensate for the 12.2% of the time your stack is crippled to 3566 which is unavoidable if you seek to play the hand profitably compared to the 20.8% you grow to 21k. ie: the risk outweighs reward.

I chose call because
1) it’s +EV.
2) The 63.0% versus 37.0% doubled versus crippled percentages while my position is largely unaffected by calling and losing the 1120 initial investment.

I wouldn’t 3bet in this spot OOP in a cash game.

This is a definite call. Any raise has to be a shove which I kinda like to pick up the 29% increase to our stack but there is so much more value here, without the risk of busto, if we hit our set.

Jeez dude. All those calculations but you misrepresent a basic percentage which is the percentage to hit a set on the flop. Its 12%.

Post flop play is pretty simple here, check-fold if you miss, check-raise if you hit your set.

This is a call solely to set mine. Attempting to play TT even if the board is all unders out of position against multiple opponents should not be seriously considered.

An important data point to consider here is that you have the chance to knock out a strong opponent. If you hit your set you will almost certainly stack him. Removing a solid winning regular from the table would be worth more that just the chips you win.

We’re the BB, the extra 840 to call a pot this size is cheap as.

@ Richard

“I wouldn’t 3bet in this spot OOP in a cash game.”

The 3-bet is precisely because you don’t want to play TT out of position.

@black fair

Thanks for pointing that out that it’s about 12% not 9%. thought 9% instead of 1 in 9 argh. Seeing as most of our value is coming from winning with a set and not folding post flop, yeah that’s pretty big.

That throws some of the calculations off and makes the case for calling stronger and also the case for folding weaker. I posted the original text followed by revisions.

Original text:”D call preflop and 1 or more overs flop and you don’t hit a set:
frequency: .85*.61=.519
result: -1120

…

…

D calls preflop, you hit a set and win
frequency: .85*.09*.95=.073
result:+10330

D calls preflop, you hit a set and lose
frequency: .85*.09*.05=.0038
result:-7434

sum of linear combination of frequency*result=
= +501 chips.”

The calculations above need to be adjusted due to the chance of flopping a set (or quads) being around 12%.

Revised:”D call preflop and 1 or more overs flop and you don’t hit a set:
frequency: .85*.58=.493
result: -1120

…

…

D calls preflop, you hit a set and win
frequency: .85*.12*.95=.097
result:+10330

D calls preflop, you hit a set and lose
frequency: .85*.12*.05=.0051
result:-7434

sum of linear combination of frequency*result=
= +770 chips.”

Adjusted expected win with call is on average 770 chips.

The case for folding’s proportions alters also with the increase in set hitting at the expense of check folding flops comes higher doubling rate and slightly higher cripple percentage.

Original text: “Fold: There just isn’t enough value to compensate for the 12.2% of the time your stack is crippled to 3566 which is unavoidable if you seek to play the hand profitably compared to the 20.8% you grow to 21k. ie: the risk outweighs reward.

I chose call because
1) it’s +EV.
2) The 63.0% versus 37.0% doubled versus crippled percentages while my position is largely unaffected by calling and losing the 1120 initial investment.”

With 12.4% crippled vs 23.3% doubled this becomes…

Revised: “Fold: There just isn’t enough value to compensate for the 12.4% of the time your stack is crippled to 3566 which is unavoidable if you seek to play the hand profitably compared to the 23.3% you grow to 21k. ie: the risk outweighs reward.

I chose call because
1) it’s +EV.
2) The 65.3% versus 34.7% in doubled versus crippled percentages while my position is largely unaffected by calling and losing the 1120 initial investment.”

Now this is a clear call.

I’d rather call for set value in a cash game too as if 3bet we will be called by at least one opp and have set up the c’bet OOP when there will likely be at least one over. Not fun. Against a single raiser or two limpers then standard 3bet from the blind.

The math is all well and good but Blackfair nailed it. You want to play this hand in a big multiway pot and hope to hit your set. You’ve got the implied odds, so call and check the flop hit or miss - in a live game I’d check dark.

@Donkalicious: agreed, except that checking dark kind of gives away your hand eh? So just check is probably fine

Im raising. The only player here who scares me is the raiser. He doesnt scare me that much, but he’s the only one who looks like he could have JJ+

The thing is, the mid position limper almost definitely doesnt have JJ+ unless its aces and its an aggressive table…and it doesnt make sense for the button to flat with that much in the pot and JJ+…he’d be inviting in the blinds and the original limper to crack his hand. Theres enough in there for him to put in a raise, isolate or take it down.

So for me, that means a lot of dead money and one out of 3 opponents who MIGHT have me beat. Im gonna find out if he does or doesnt right here rather than play for set value and most likely toss away 1120 when i miss the flop and have no idea where im at oop. i can see the call for set mining purposes, i just think the dead money here is worth trying to pick up since you most likely dont hit the set. also…and this has happened to me more than enough times, even if you hit the set, doesnt mean someone else doesnt make a flush or straight or higher set anyway….if we can take it down here, thats a nice boost.

Im making it something like 3450 and considering a fold if the raiser shoves.

I think McCowish’s time ran out right around “Your winning cc with…” and his hand was automatically folded…well done.

I love how McGowish did tons of maths, which is all based on pulling two numbers out of the air. Seems like a great spot with a squeeze. Limper is usually weak unless you have a strong read otherwise, raiser is going to be isolating the fish with a wide range, while the button is probably not strong or he’d have 3bet himself. Also the raiser is sufficiently short-stacked that he can’t 4bet as a bluff. If he’s getting it in with a tight range (JJ+, AK)then you have 33% pot equity plus a ton of fold equity, if he’s going with a wide range (88+,AQ) then you’re flipping with an overlay.

I don’t really like set-mining here since we’re out of position and raiser is shallow stacked so implied odds are poor.

Voted call. I’m in-line with Black Fair’s reasoning. Folding is out. Raising and committing 30-35% of stack hoping to get 3 folds does not seem appealing or even possible. You may be ahead p/f, but overheads will hit vast majority of time. Pot odds are ~4-1, so the implied odds of calling and hitting your set are there. If you hit the set on a dangerous board, open-shove. Otherwise, navigate and play poker.

overcards not overheads … that’s what happens when I take this quiz at work.

In principle I agree that putting in a big raise would be a very tempting play here - and one I would choose in abstract terms pretty much exactly for the reasons that CityBorn outlined. The trouble is, however, that repop to 3450 might not be big enough a raise to take the pot down - as there is already 3165 in the middle.

Once we make it 3450 let’s consider what will happen next. I agree that MP is dead money - he can’t call because of a very high risk of orig. raiser coming over the top and he is very unlikely to have a strong enough hand to reship himself. Original raiser is the real question, however. The pot is now 6615 and villain has 6325 behind - what would his shoving range be here? And after he shoves (and assuming everyone else folds) we’re left with 6k to call to pick up 12k - would it be correct to fall against villain’s range at this point?

And another thing to consider - MP and OR fold, button calls, and we end up playing 6.6k pot with 9k behind, OOP against the big stack which doesn’t leave much space for post-flop maneuvering.

If the stacks were slightly different (i.e. both us and OR being a little deeper) I would reraise, but here I am too leaning towards calling and mining for a set.

Call is fine IMO, can’t see MP shoving from here.

Potential for a huge multi-way pot, so you’ve definitely got odds for set mining here