Daily Hand Quiz

I don’t think he has AA, KK (he would raise less) so, getting those two hands out of his range, 99 becomes a call.

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I would lean to a fold here, although if i would have just got moved to that table having no reads/notes on anybody i would probably look for villains’ overall stats @ opr as fast as i can and for those of that flatcaller as well. Some might call w/ a very strong hand hoping another player will come over the top. I then would reevaluate based on the players skill and either shove to isolate obviously or fold. But as i said, i lean towards folding the nines here.
Very rough spot. AQ would be an easy fold imo. Don’t think guy pushes a weaker ace, but that also depends. If he’s a bad blayer, which is not unlikely in a 10 rebuy he might overvalue hands; KQo=nutz e.g.
Curious about the result in that hand if hero called/pushed.

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Easy fold.

Lets switch this around and look at the thinking for the Button. A new player comes to the table with a decent sized stack which means they have been playing well. They raise UTG. You have to give that player credit for a hand. Anything else is insane.

To shove over the top of that player and a flat caller means you are either a maniac or you have a hand that dominates or at the very least flips with 99.

So since we have no read on the button as being a maniac we give them credit for a hand we are not ahead of and fold.

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If we don’t defend an UTG raise with 9-9, we won’t be able to steal anymore. If we bust him we’ll become the table captain and nobody will mess around with us knowing that we’ll commit if re-raised.

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With antes in,every orbit costs you 1000 chips to play.

Obv.Button is desperate for chips and he certainly needs to make a move rather soon.
Even giving him a very tight range like 77+,AK,AQs+ you have 42.5% equity.

You are getting 1.44 pot odds here and your equity is about 1.36,being his range as tight as hell.

So I am playing the hand,which in this case is a clear push to get rid of the first overcaller.

The funny thing is that

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@ kaimano

You’re talking about if we were re-raised and could shove in response. We can’t. The button shoved for his entire stack whilst approaching the money and did it against an under the gun raise from a big stack which was flat called by another big stack.

That is just not a scenario under which a squeeze play is made. Unless the button is a maniac and relying purely on the strength such a move screams then it is what is is – a sign of a hand better than 99.

Yes if we bust him we are in a good position, but we are already in a good position – 2nd biggest stack. We don’t need to commit half our stack (or more) on 99 here.

I don’t even think call should be an option. This is either shove to isolate or fold.

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….the funny thing is that I cannot raise here,is not an option,so I guess I call.

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If there was no cold caller this would be a snap call HU (with 99 that is, not AQ) as the button with M < 10 could be making a move with most pairs and A10+ even against an UTG range. We would be getting a good price and have the stack to take a hit.

But now we have to tighten his range considerably as he just shipped it in against two opponents. I’d think only 10+ and AQ+ show up here so it’s an easy fold, especially as the cold caller could be trapping.

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@ alekhine

use your own logic and put yourself in the button’s position.

You’ve said you’d call/push. I presume if you were the flat caller and UTG folded you’d be inclined to call with an even wider range.

So if you were the button when you make this move you’d have to think that there is a good chance you’ll be called by one of the big stacks.

Therefore its not a steal. You squeeze to get folds. You don’t squeeze if you’re likely to get called.

We’re not in the money yet and the button has put his tournament on the line in a situation where getting called in at least one spot is likely. We’re not a favourite against his range at all. And we still have the chip leader at this table to contend with.

Why risk the stack we’ve built in such a marginal spot?

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Fold.

Part of a squeeze play is having a read on opponent. We have no read on him because we are new, he has o read on us. 1010 makes up a huge part of his range and this would probably be close to optimal way to play the hand given his stack size of 10M and a bunch of overs. Can we see him making this move with say 77 or 88? Problem is we don’t know because we’re new to table. Would a squeeze play here work? Problem is he doesn’t know because we are new to table (or maybe he datamined us and does know ).

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Voted fold. Hero is nearing the money, there is another player to act, and new to the table. I have to give credit here. The BB M~10 is not low enough yet to prompt a shove with a wide range. Our fold may be perceived as weak, but this may work to our advantage later, when we come over the top with a stronger hand. I’d fold AQ as well unless it is suited. I’d call with JJ+ and AK.

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Blackfair and Huck have already said it best. Staff needs to change the title of the quiz to “9′s facing a probably not squeeze.”

Arguments in favor of squeeze: Button still has M=10. That is not quite desperation mode, although it is getting close. The stack behind you smooth-called and has 23k behind, which makes your call rather nasty if you get re-shoved. We are also nearing the money so button might be counting on the bubble effect.

Arguments against squeeze: The button still has enough chips to slide into the money. There is no need to risk chips on anything speculative such as 77 or 88, especially against an UTG raiser with a big old stack o’ chips. Furthermore, with two larger stacks live behind him/her, villain is absolutely expecting a call. Even if hero (the strong UTG raiser) folds, chances are D will call and villain knows this. I would not be at all surprised if button flipped over AA, KK, QQ or AKs. Finally, with a premium hand button would probably NOT raise less. Why bother? There was a strong raise in front and two big stacks are in play. Might as well make one fold and go heads up with the other to double up.

Ergo, I don’t think this is a squeeze play at all. Hero has only invested 1/25th of his/her stack. I think domination is a strong possibility here with a flip at best. I toss 99. Also, I don’t even think with AQ, I toss that too. Sure, D might call and button flips 88, but that happens sometimes. I think a more interesting scenario would be when hero holds TT, JJ, QQ or AK.

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i voted call.

first of all, i agree with kaimano that aa and kk are unlikely, leaving only 3 pp’s above us to worry about. statistically speaking having one of those 3 hands is much less likely then having big broadway cards. i also dont necessarily put the button on the super tight range he’s been assigned here. this seems like a good spot for a squeeze. think about what a great pickup this would be for the button. and he has exactly the right size stack for this play. as players stacks dwindle and ante’s start to chip away. a player in late position can easily make a move to put pressure on other players and try to steal a nice boost to their stack. it wouldnt shock me to find j/10s or a hand like that that plays well against a 3-bet all in calling range. much less likely then a legit top tier hand, but definitely a possibility. remember, we dont him, and he may be counting on that fact to help tilt our decision to a fold.

also, if we shove, we can be almost sure the flat caller drops it. so now with the dead money, and us likely being a 55/45 favorite, this seems like a good time to defend our utg raise. what message does it send, right off the bat if we get to a new table, raise with a legitimate hand, and fold in a squeeze scenario? if we win we have a dominating stack. that is how you chip up and get ready to make a deep run. if we lose we are still middle of the pack and have shown in our one opportunity that we are raising with real hands and will defend our chips…which may help in later steal attempts. right now im looking to pick off a smaller stack, knock one more guy out, and establish myself as a player to fear.

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@black fair

your point about this not being a typical spot for a squeeze is well taken, and i understand your reasoning for folding. his move is designed to, and pretty much does represent strength.

the part i disagree with is saying that he has to give us credit for a big hand, and we have to give him credit for a big hand. just because we show up to a table with chips and raise utg doesnt mean we are playing a tight range. in fact, isnt there commonly a lag who has managed to build up a big stack by taking chances?

similarly, just because we have no read on him doesnt mean we default to assuming hes got a monster. it means simply that since we have no read, we have to rely on other criteria to determine what to do. for me, im choosing statistical probabilities of him holding certain hands, along with weighing in the scenario and stack-to-blind ratio.

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@ City

Sure, statistically speaking AK is always more like than AA/KK etc. But the fact that the button raiser has showed a lot of strength (try to place yourself in his/her shoes) makes it MORE likely that villain has a good hand, not less.

Furthermore, I think calling for the sake of “defending hero’s UTG raise” is a pretty poor reason to call, considering that 99 is not at all a premium holding UTG. I would argue conversely that folding here gives us +EV down the line when we pick up a premium hand and raise it and someone plays back at us thinking we have a marginal holding.

Finally, calling or reshoving here doesn’t make us table captain, it shows everyone our cards. It also allows people to watch us lose 40% of our stack to someone when we are 55% at the very best and likely 17.5%. I think playing aggressively is important, but I also think we can pick spots to do so when opponents show weakness, not when they shove their stack into two big stacks who have showed considerable strength.

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@Loki

Not surprisingly, I respectfully disagree with almost all of your conclusions. We both agree having the big pocket pair is less likely statistically, and we both agree he is likely to have a better hand than a worse one. But beyond that, we differ on our interpretation of what that means. I figure a few things. based on the all in, i weigh aa and kk less. based on statistics, i weigh TT-QQ less than i weigh broadway combos, which can still be considered “good” hands. based on scenario, i factor in, and dont ignore x-factor squeeze play type hands such as suited connectors and small pairs. if i put myself in his shoes, that is where i am at.

I also disagree that defending your raise is a poor reason to call. there are 5 hands in all of poker that we dont want to see…..and many more that suit us fine right here when we factor in the dead money and the advantage we gain in future confrontations from people knowing we are not scared to put the chips in. especially when we are the initial raiser. if we are going to be folding to reraises everytime someone represents strength, its going to be a short run for us. in your assessment, you feel we gain more by setting people up to make raises against us when we are holding primo’s, but lets look at the bigger picture, most of the time we’d rather take it down uncontested, or have our moves be respected. and folding here doesnt really mean that people are just going to donk out and stack off against us with nothing later anyway. taking this confrontation on here has MUCH more of a psychological impact on the table helping my desired image, than folding helps yours.

i think shoving here absolutely make us table captain…if we win. if we lose, of course not, we are middle of the pack. but either way in future confrontations, like i said, people will know we arent scared to get the money in and that will make them hesitant to mess with us.

i also disagree we are 55% at absolute best and likely 17.5%. first off, i think there is a chance he has a pair lower than 9′s, second of all imo, we are most likely to be a 55% favorite, and we are around 20% even in the less likely event we are dominated.

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@ City

I do agree with some of your conclusions. It would be nice to have tons of chips and an aggressive image if hero wins. No disagreement there. I also don’t think it would necessarily be better for our image to do things the tight way (fold and have people donk off to us later).

But I still don’t think this is a squeeze. Sure, if I had a good read on the button/table I would absolutely reshove here. But I’m new, and this is what the button has seen:

1. Big stack, new to table, raises UTG.
2. Big stack calls.

It just seems to me that a shove here is begging for one of those stacks to call because it is so likely that at least one of them will.

It’s nitty, I admit, and could be the wrong play. And the fact that I have 24k live chips who smooth-called hero’s UTG raise behind doesn’t make me feel great, which is what a squeeze is supposed to do. I still fold it and cruise into the money.

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yeah _cityborn_ has the better points i think. why can’t the button do this with AK-A10 or 88 making this a correct call. It could also be a legitimate squeeze too.

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I voted fold because:

I have ZERO reads on the table. Maybe the button player is super tight? I wouldn’t know.

I think there will be better spots to risk 40% of my stack with more information available.

Also, i think the probability of a squeeze is slightly reduced because of OUR position. If were were an EP/MP opener, a squeeze is more common, but we’re UTG. Our position alone indicates strength.

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If you were new to a table, would you want to get involved quickly UTG? I would want to see a revolution if possible to get a sense of how the table plays. Therefore, it’s reasonable to put us on a much stronger hand than 99. Would you squeeze this image as the villain? I doubt it.

Fold and pick a better spot.

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Кстати у меня есть рисунки на эту тему. Куда можно скинуть ?

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I agree with Loki and Jeff. Without a feel for the table, I am reluctant to engage in a likely coin flip for half my stack at this point in a tourney (or all of it, if we reshove to isolate – probably the better play than call). Perhaps villian is a pro and is engaging in second tier thinking – that we will fold anything but a monster because his play doesn’t fit the normal squeeze definition. Conversely, it is possible that he may be inexperienced enough to believe that this is a normal squeeze play and call/shove be correct. In an $11 rebuy, I put him on traditional play unless shown otherwise.

The caller has the read and, if he is a maniac, will keep him honest.

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Ставлю отлично!

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Results: You called and were shown 78o, 78 improved to the nut straight on the river and you broke your hand.

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