Daily Hand Quiz

Leading or check raising is hard to do when we’re second to act. With the call the pot becomes 52 with opp only having 75 more. So I ship it all in on the flop for maximise both my hand equity (by getting to see 2 cards) and fold equity and then wish I hadn’t called a 3bet with J10o OOP when I stack off.

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My tendency would be to get it all in the middle now. I probably have two overcards and am up against A9s/A8s or complete air. If we count the J and the T as outs then we have 14outs x 4 = 56% which I would round down to about 52%. This added to the chance that my opponent will fold make a ship a good option.

There is a possibility we are up against a higher pair TT-QQ perhaps, in which case we are 8 outs which is about 32% to win. But you are against a multi-tabler here and I have found that multi-tablers (and TAG opponents) are much less likely to call all-ins when they c-bet because they prefer to be the player pushing all-in.

If you go all-in, my guess is your opponent will fold and curse him/herself for c-betting with AQ against a tight player when he/she could have checked for a free card.

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Raising all in seems like semi bluff. Raise 45 seems like you gat a big hand. If he calls just push on turn if no diamonds came.

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Voted call and eval turn. With suited cards, as well as connectors on the flop, a shove may be read as a draw and will be called by a hand that is ahead like 9+over.

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Why are we acting first?

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This is clearly a check raise situation. As for whether to shove….

This is something I come across pretty often. Theres *appearing* to have the big hand by raising small, and then theres the stark reality that sometimes a big bet is simply intimidating and uncomfortable for an opponent to call, and gets them to fold. Which one is the right move depends on opponents hand and skill level. The lesser the opponent, the more you need to use big bets to get them off marginal hands. If it is a skilled thinking opponent, I agree with samo2, they will see through it and make the call if it looks like youre trying to buy it with a draw. So which situation are we in here? Our opponent is multitabling and “not getting out of line”, which means hes not thinking too much. That means shove it. Unless hes got a set or overpair, hes not calling, and if he does call, we have outs…..thats poker.

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@ CityBorn

Well said. That was my reasoning also. Many online players do not see a shove all-in as a semi-bluff. In fact, you are a tight player so a shove might mean “I’m so excited I just hit a set and someone bet into me!”

Sure, if you’re up against someone who’s really skilled then he/she would snap call that. But a multi-tabler is more likely to think that his/her pair is beat or behind and thus he/she won’t be willing to put an entire stack in with a pair.

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cliche:bought:Kabul lynxes devise!ago ancestor!Seagate.mummies!

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If he has 88, 99, 1010, JJ, QQ, KK,AA,any 2 diamonds greater than or equal to 10, he will rereraise if reraised. Non-diamond overs and 33 to 77 fold to the reraise. If he has AK he probably will fold to reraise given the read “not out of line”.

So math wise:
Sum (i probabilty of our win)*number of duplicate situations*number of card combinations

88, 99, 1010, JJ, QQ, KK,AA,any 2 diamonds greater than or equal to 10, he will rereraise if reraised.

Card combinations he will rereraise with:
4*3+3*6+4+3+2+1=40 cc

Non-diamond overs and 33 to 77 he will fold with:

Breakdown:

10& x, x>=J: 9+3*12
J&x,x>=Q:3*12
QK,AQ, AK: 3*16
9+3*12+3*12+3*16=129
minus those that we know are diamonds
129-10=119. Modify for fold 70% Ak non-diamond
.7*15=10.5 implies 4.5 decrease from fold section and must add 4.5 to call section
Modified villain’s reraising cc:40+4.5=44.5
Modified his folding cc 119-4.5=114.5
Total cc:114.5+44.5=159
He calls=44.5/159=.28 of the time
He folds: 1-.28= .72 of the time.

If he reraises, his base cc is: 4*3+3*6+4+3+2+1+4.5=44.5 cc

Our Winning CC modifers
If he has 88 or 99: .25
If he has 1010: .4
If he has JJ: .3
If he has QQ-AA: .33
vs dominating diamonds for 10–
Jd10d: 0
Qd10d:.18
Kd10d and Ad10d:.24

vs dominating diamdons for Jd +x>=Qd
JdQd:.18
JdKd and JdAd:.24

vs dominating over diamonds
KQd, AdQd, AdKd: .29

vs AK: .5

Modified rereaising cc that we win:
.25*2*3+ .4*3+.3*3+.33*3*6+0*1+.18+2*.24+3*.29+.5*4.5=11.9 cc

Chance of winning if I reraise and am called versus his range: 11.9/44.5=.26

Pot and stack gain/loss for the decision, not the hand:
If I raise and he folds: 37 pot
If I raise, he reraises and I win:112 (pot+ rest of his stack)
If I raise and lose: -96, (my stack)

Total EV modified for chance of winning and losing:
.72*37+.28*.26*112+.28*.74*-96=14.9 *1BB/$1=+14.9BB/decision

So reraising is EV positive by about 14.9BB per decision on average.

Note: Can I get a validity check on the EV reasoning? I feel like I can’t compare this EV to a call then fire EV on the turn because that EV will be inflated if my opponent folds because the pot gained $15 from our call but we won the same amount of money from our opponent. I am unsure if I incorporated pot in correct way in the calculation and if I incorporated pot in an accurate reference to the term EV, which I think sets a fold at 0 EV for any decision and a negative BB/hand expectation. If so, should I use a function from EV and prior investments to BB/hand then compare the BB/hand for the various decisions?

*sighs* Now this EV needs to be compared to the EV versus his range for the call, re-evaluate turn. Hopefully someone can get that done

I voted lead all turns but upon reflection that is incorrect.

Call and lead turn for 3/4 pot if it blanks. Call for pot odds if reraised.

Call and check turn if you hit.
If he raises little and you have straight, call
If he raises medium to a lot and you have straight, reraise in.

If you hit the 10 or J, check the turn.

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@ McGowish, chill out man!

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McGowish u r-tard, get a life.

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Should I be more like you Mare, a person who goes out of his way to insult others for posting in depth analysis on an analysis page?
XD. I’ll pass.

I think you’re aware that you lack the ability to analyze on the same level I can and are quite jealous because you know that with people like me out there, you’ll never be close to the best

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Mc Menish

Yes, you are the best there ever was, i grovel. I challenge you to heads up anyday. Don’t forget i created you (i fucked your mum) so I CAN DESTROY YOU!

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