Daily Hand Quiz

I’d raise. I would be thinking it is time to protect my trips and get it down to two-handed play if possible for the river. Thats a healthy pot already and I don’t want to allow two drawing hands seeing a river card against my made hand.

I raise to around $14K hoping at least one draw folds while lower trips and two pair hands continue with me, or better yet shove over the top thinking I’m on a steal.

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Raising to 14k prices in the draws. If we raise, and I most likely would when any A, Q, 10 or 9 could complete a straight and 7 clubs can beat us, then it has to be a shove IMO otherwise better to just call.

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You could be right, 14K might be a little low. I’m not sure its the right price for the BB if they are on a weaker draw like 68 clubs when he’s faced with a quick call then a raise, and now has to decide what to do with another player to act again.

I think its only the strong combo draws that really scare you AQ, A10, Q10 of clubs. And I’m not sure a shove given your weak line will scare those hands off. And when you do play against them you are still a strong favourite.

You want a raise that keeps two-pair and JJ/55/77 playing along but has a good chance at folding out weaker drawing hands.

A call is not terrible i just see it as a bit risky.

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fold imo. they always river the flush.

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I raise because that is the entire point of slowplaying your hand. Your set is very well disguised here because you called and checked behind on the flop. Go ahead and raise and hope that your opponent puts you on the draw and ships it in.
I also raise here because I have two people with me on the turn, which makes it more likely I’m going to get action. Your opponents can’t put you on much here and if one of them does have 55/77/JJ you’re going to get all their money right now without the risk of letting someone catch a cheap draw on the river.
Also, there is a bet and a call in front of you, not two checks, so one of them if not both has something. I would go ahead and put in a big raise (all-in perhaps) and let someone stack off to me. If they both fold, then you pull in a nice pot and avoid getting drawn out (the pot is already 2/3 of your whole stack).

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Voted raise. Hero has chance to increase stack by 50%+, there are 2 cards in the zone, so I’d try and take it down now. Any raise will signal commitment, so I’d go for an over-bet, $21K, for 2 reasons: price-out draws and induce a lower set or two pair to shove.

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Im with the raise contingent. I just dont see why we’d let two players draw for free. The risk in getting outdrawn is worse than the possible bit of value youre gonna get on the river. I think even an aggressive BB slows down after getting called by both players behind and wont lead or call on the river unless he makes his hand. Sure, its possible we fill and it makes a flush for them, or some other miraculous situation happens and we double up, but that is unlikely. I think they either make their hand and we pay, or the action shuts down and mayyyybe we get a small value bet in that gets called by 2 pair.

Take it now or make them pay to draw.

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Call.
One of them is gonna big bet river no matter what imo, thats when the shove comes no matter what.

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@ Loki
6.3.09 / 5am

Spot on.

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Shove

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Shove. I think slow playing this hand is idiotic. You should only slow play monsters and a set is not a monster. It seems when I try and get cute and slow play it usually bites me in the @ss and I end up trapping myself. What are you going to do if you flat then a club or a card that fills the str8 hits the river and one of your opponents puts out a big bet?? Now you’ve got yourself in a jam and most likely will have to fold when you could have won this pot on the flop. Or you make the call only to see you got beat by a draw and now your left on life support and have to move all in to stay alive.

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Nearing the bubble means that tight players should be slowing down, aggressive players are opening up. Think the hijack probably started with a real hand (maybe AQ, AJ, A10, pocket pair). BB doesn’t need anything to bet on turn or river, but hijack must have big starting hand (AA, QQ)or some piece of it (QJ, AQ, AJ, A10, JJ, 55) to just call. I like a big raise here (probably a shove) under these circumstances.
It is about a 18% chance that you are going to get a flush scare card and about the same for a straight scare card on river. Why put yourself under that pressure. Make them feel the pressure now. You have the nuts at present, so if they call you can feel good about getting your money in. If the flush or straight card comes and early position pushes, what are you going to do?
If you take this down on turn, you will be above average chip stack. I don’t see the need to tempt fate at this point.

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Raise.

I voted call, but upon reflection this is a definite raise.

First I will go over the EV difference between call and raise and then review the tournament outcomes.

If BB has a flush draw, he has 7 outs as opposed to 9, and if Kc or 5c hit, he will give me a good portion of his stack. If a non-club comes, then he either has a made hand or a busted draw. If he has a busted draw, he will likely bluff again. If he has a made hand, he’ll check call a value bet on the end likely unless it rivers an A, which makes the broadway draw and changes the over card. So I’m afraid of 13/46= 28% of hands on the river, and I stand to gain more money on 72% of hands and I know what I don’t want to see: any A, any 9, a club that is not Kc or 5c.

If BB has 86, that I’m already afraid of the nine saves me half the time and I’m saved from the 4c. For 84 6c reduces his crappy gutshot and 75, I chalk this one up to luck with his garbage. I consider all these hands unlucky with the preflop raise and CO call as that already shows some strength.

By calling, I expect that if the BB has a draw and blanks, having seen the HJ and CO call-check 2 streets, as an aggressive having lead the turn on a draw heavy board, he will fire.

If I reraise here, I will be giving a price to the draw that will not make it profitable for him to continue and I shut down the action on the river if he doesn’t hit. MP will probably fold. If either have a made-hand, they will have to think twice about it, and since there’s only 1 K still out there and the board has a high King, I probably take down the pot as is. If the BB has a set of jacks, we’ll stack off.

For EV, what this comes down to is…
1)”Do I think that I can get a bet worth 39% (a little less than 2/5 pot) or more of the pot on average when one of the cards I’m afraid of does not show up on the river?”
If no, then raise is the correct play.
If yes, then you should call the turn.

However we must consider several other factors:
1) What will our relative stack position be compared with the 2 courses of action:
If you raise, you are all but guaranteed a 55k stack, more than double many of the stacks around you and put you in a position to harass the blinds and abuse the bubble.

If you call, 72-71% of the time, if the EV is equal to or greater than 2/5 pot, you’ll have 64.5k chips, a little more comfy but not much strategic difference, the 77k stack *might* take you slightly more seriously in a battle but pretty much the same.

The other 28% of the time, you fold to BB’s bluff and are at 31k. Here, It’s important to be looking around and seeing who’s going broke. You will feel the heat and be in a lockdown mode..trying to preserve your meager advatange over other stacks before the bubble breaks. After surviving the bubble, you will probably need to double through once or twice to be competitive for the loot.

For hand EV, I believe you will average 39% of the pot on the river when it blanks or slightly better, which favors call.

However, the loss of stack position 28% of the time entails many costs: the loss of abusing rocks before the bubble, the need to fold some value hands to survive bubble, after the bubble the need to double through in risk to tourny survival.

These factors together more than outweigh the slightly more positive EV from calling, and thus, we raise and take the pot as is.

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I expect BB to raise river 88%+ of the time (he might not pull the trigger for an A on the board). A large of this quiz is how much you expect the BB to bluff on the river if he has 2 callers on the turn I expect BB to 1/4 pot “value bet” river bluff and fold to a reraise, player E to reraise if he hits his draw and fold otherwise, and either to be prepared to stack off if he hits his hand. If BB bets 1/2 pot on river regularly as a river bet as a bluff or when aggressive, you MUST call here for value on river.

If he bets 1/3 pot with air on missed board,
I raise.
If he bets 2/5 pot with air on missed board, I’ll say raise here but I would actually call, with the long term- tournament and EV considerations balancing out but my tending to preserving tournament survival.

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*err balancing but my tending to preserving torunament survival*

I tend towards EV/hand actually which is why i would actually call

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