Archive Pick: 99 considering a four bet, no limit tournament

DailyHandQuiz

Game type: $100 1R 1A, Full Tilt Poker
Stage of tourney: ITM
Your image: TAG
Opponent’s image: Both solid players
Your hand: 9♦9♣

This quiz is from our archives; view the original quiz and comments

The setup: You’re sitting well in this $100 one rebuy one addon tournament on Full Tilt Poker when the following hand comes up. You’re dealt 99 in the SB. UTG raises to about 2.5x. He’s been very active UTG and is a solid player. UTG+1 thinks for a bit and then 3 bets for a bit under 3x the UTG raise. The table folds to you in the SB.

What’s your play? Would your answer change if you had TT? How about JJ?

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DHQ says: UTG isn’t a factor in this hand, except for the small percentage of the time he wakes up with QQ plus . The question is UTG 1.

Because of UTGs lightness, UTG 1 has also broadened their range significantly. The problem is, I don’t know that you really have much fold equity vs UTG 1s stack. Your raise will give them 2-1 or so to call, plus they’d have a fairly short stack if they folded, meaning that you’re likely getting called with their entire range.

What is that range? I don’t think there’s a ton of air in it, since they’ve pretty much cuffed themselves to a call, but I do think they expect to get folds a lot of the time, so you can include hands that aren’t strong but do ok vs the four betting range of UTG – think suited broadway and maybe even some smaller suited connectors. I think 55 plus, AJs plus, KQs plus, JTs, and AQo plus is a pretty fair range. 99 is a dead flip against that range.

What are your odds? Assume the player UTG 1 just shipped. That would leave you calling 63k to win 78k or so; roughly 1.2-1.

It’s probably pretty close to neutral when you consider that the UTG player does wake up with AA now and again. If you think UTG 1 plays all pairs this way (or can fold hands you’re racing with), that’s probably enough to tip this to a bet. You get about a 5% equity bump from TT and another 5% or so from JJ, making both fairly easy ships.

What actually happened: You folded and UTG folded.

11 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

blackfair

Fold. With only the small blind paid I’m not so attached to 99.

I think completely discounting UTG here is wrong.

I also think it unlikely that the UTG+1 is betting 1/3 of their stack on a hand that doesn’t beat 99. There is zero fold equity here.

Fold TT and JJ as well. We have a stack that allows us to be more patient for better spots.

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Richard P

Screw hand ranges and equity, an UTG raise and an UTG+1 3bet (which due to position screams commitment) makes me throw away any pocket pair up to QQ. We have a solid stack, no need to risk half or all of it here.

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Richard P

Apparently I’ve tightened up since January when I would have shipped with jacks. Becoming more of a nit every day.

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McGowish

Easy fold.

99 is a marginal hand that should not be played from the SB with an early position raiser without a propitious read and should not be played againat an early position raiser and a reraiser unless they both r/rr with 40-50% hands or have shown done repeatedlky later with air, which never happens. Solid is something much different, fold.
Fold the tens also.
Fold with jacks also.

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Bert

u gotta think even if u had JJ in this spot if u moved in your essentially bluffing because the only hand that will possibly call which you have beat is AK, all others and your 20%

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pawerton

Вижу ты начинаешь набирать обороты. Все вот читаю твой блог и думаю надо бы мне тоже завести свой, да все лень матушка.

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samo2

Fold. Hero is sitting with 3rd best stack with several opponents at single-digit Ms. Not necessary to put ranges into this equation. Save the brain power for another hand.

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_Donk_

Fold 99 and 10-10.

JJ really depends on my mood…still probably fold.

QQ+ and AK is ship.

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_CityBorn_

UTG + 1 is almost certainly pot committed, and youre flipping at best, for half your stack, assuming the utg didnt wake up with a real hand which would make this a really bad spot. Why would you get involved in that given your good position right now.

I probably fold 10′s, go with the gut on jacks, ship with qq+

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Bert

_Donk_

if JJ is probably a fold then AK should probably be a fold also. id shove QQ fold KK and shove AA….just cos i really dont like those kings lol bad memories

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Loki

Samo2 and CityBorn are right on. 99 is either a flip or a HUGE underdog at this point, as are TT and JJ. Fold all 3. Furthermore, there are several people at your table with really small stacks and probably many more at other tables. Let them donk out and move you up in the money.

This might be a little tight, but I might fold QQ here as I’m certainly not going to flat call with it. I think that at least one of your two opponents has AKs, AA or KK and there are 2 live players behind you AND you are OOP. I ship with AA/KK and fold everything else.

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