Daily Hand Quiz

( ) all in
( ) fold
(o) bet smaller than pot

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( ) all in
( ) fold
( ) bet smaller than pot
(o) bet pot (agree it looks weak) and stack off to a made flush when get 3bet

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88 here is a great hand here. The only hand that will break you is JJ. You should be able to get away from 88 based on the play and following cards otherwise.

I’d vote Check-Call

I think with this many people in the pot you’d have to be massively concerned about the made flush. Now I’m not concerned about the player acting after me: as last to act their bet is almost a given when checked to. I’m concerned about one of the earlier players having checked with the made flush.

So I check hoping to have it check through because I want to get to show down as cheaply as possible, keeping in mind that against a made flush I still have a 1/3 chance of the full house / quads by the river.

Now when the last person to act bets and the SB just calls and everyone else folds I am no longer anywhere near as worried about the made flush with this new information. I’m now going to assume I’m ahead unless either player keeps betting hard when bricks fall, or unless another heart falls. I don’t want to check-raise and scare these guys out of the pot: I’m more likely to hit my full house then they are to make their flush. The chance of a hand like AhJx paying you off all the way to the river here is huge.

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( ) all-in
( ) fold
( ) bet smaller than pot
( ) bet pot
(x) bet larger than pot – I’d go for $790, which could represent a small flush. I’d fold to a large 3-bet from BB or B. Too early to rely on a draw, even though hero could be ahead now.

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Hmmm . . . nice poker there, betting to represent a less than 1% flopped flush and then heroically folding when frightened about a less than 1% flopped flush. Even if they did hit that rare flopped flush, you are still 35% to complete your full house/quads by the river. It’s so rare it’s not even worth being scared of.

What you do not want is to give someone with the Ah a free look at the turn here, because if it is another heart then you are a definite dog to pair the board by the river. I really like our hero’s check-raise because in the modern, aggressive online game, the semi-bluff with the Ah or Kh (or even a “value bet” if their other card is a J) is not only common, it’s practically mandatory. Since you have plenty of people behind, I like to let someone stab at it and then make it really expensive for them to continue. Of course, if it’s a soft passive game then you merely lead into it for about a pot-sized bet (making it appear you are bluffing the Ah) and hope someone who has the Ah or Kh plays back at you. Sometimes someone who has AhJx, AxJx or even J8 (a lot of limpers remember) will play back at you to “protect his/her hand.”

Math-wise, the flush completes about 36% of the time with two cards to come–all your set does is decrease a flush draw hand to about a 29% win by the river, so it doesn’t make your hand a lot more powerful.

Ergo, check-raise an aggressive table, or make a pot-sized lead into a passive table.

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@ loki – thx for the feedback. While the odds of flopping a flush are <1%, there are 4 opponents. I admit the fold is weak, but I am looking at doing that vs. the large stacks only. The over-bet may represent a small flush, but the holding is a set, so pricing-up the turn for the player holding Ahx. I may not make the riv to complete fh/q by the riv, so the turn outs are 10/47 or ~21%.

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Все-таки, подобное не всем интересно. Хотя, каждому свое.

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I’d be pretty torn between leading and check-raising – although here I would probably lead as it would be unpleasant if we will get a check behind and then a heart will fall at turn. In EP it would be CR.

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@ parabellum – I agree completely. If UTG+1′s limp/call didn’t make it obvious enough, his check after the flop is a dead giveaway, positively *screaming* Th 5h. Folding is the correct option here.

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While odds of one player flopping a flush are <1%, that includes all the flops that don’t include 3 suited cards.
Now that there are 3 hearts on the board after the flop, I believe the odds are actually somewhere around 18% that one of the 4 remaining players in the hand has hit the flush already.
Still doesn’t make it likely, but it’s enough of a possibility that it should at least be considered.

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nice analysis loki, me like

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( x ) fold

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