Daily Hand Quiz

Pretty standard any 2 shove considering stack size dynamics and a bb that has a clue.

[Reply]

Yep, you need to shove with any two cards here. Even if the BB knows you’re doing this he still can’t pick you off light. You lose $EV when he calls, but so does he. The rest of the table profits by the two of you colliding as either the bubble will burst or the BB will emerge from the dust with a miniscule stack.

So, you ship, he folds.

[Reply]

@ John K

The BB loses value even when he calls with aces?

[Reply]

I think a fold is okay here. You’re on the bubble and there are 4 small stacks at the table. True, it’s an obvious raise situation, but in this spot, I’m opt to be very cautious. Odds are someone else will be going all in before your next BB.

[Reply]

Im with sports bettor. Keep it snug. Someone else is likely to bust before you and all you have to do is outlast one of the small stacks to get the top prize. Why make moves that could result in getting busted with hands like 6/7o….that smells to me like a “kick yourself for doing that” kind of situation.

I understand the logic behind shove, and agree the BB is likely to fold most hands, but theres also a significant possibility he picks up a strong hand and goes for the kill too. Outlast em, dont bust yourself.

[Reply]

I fold. And fold my way to the Monday 1k. You’ve got five hands before you are the big again and two stacks before you have three and four big blinds. Both of them are going to ship it soon.

[Reply]

Er no, I misspoke. I meant that the BB will fold 90% of the time or so. Let’s check SitNGo Wizard to be precise.

With 76o it is correct to push if the villain calls with 30% or less of his hands. If he is crazily loose and calls with more than that then we need to fold. The villain is a solid regular and so will definitely not be calling that often.

What is the villain’s proper calling range? If he thinks you will push 100% of the time, SNG Wiz says to call 11% of the time (66+, ATo+, A8s+, KQo, KTs+). If you push only the top 66% of your hands, his calling range shrinks to 7.4% (88+, AJo+, ATs+, KQs). If you push a conservative 50% then he can only call 5.7% of the time (99+, AQo+, ATs+). And if you are a tight nit and push only 25% of the time then his calling range is an anemic 3.8% (TT+, AKo, AQs+).

Keep in mind that even a “tight” 25% is still a fairly wide range: any pocket pair, any suited or unsuited ace, and most broadways.

[Reply]

Notice how different your shoving range is from the villain’s calling range. Even if you shove any two cards *and the villain knows it* he can only profitably look you up 1/10 of the time. Correct bubble play is very unintuitive. You have to shove an extremely wide range but call with an extremely tight range. If you play too tightly and do not shove wide, or too loosely and call light, you give up a lot of $EV. Bubble play for shortstacks is high variance, there’s no getting away from it.

Yes, it is painful when you bubble out with garbage like 76o. If you can’t stomach it, try just covering your cards with your hand so you don’t even see the any-two-cards you’re shoving with. Who knows, maybe you’ll have Aces.

[Reply]