
Game type: Sunday Mulligan on Full Tilt Poker, $200 buy in
Stage of tourney: Final Table
Your image: Fairly tight
Opponent’s image: Bad
Your hand: K♥Q♥
The setup: You’re at the final table of the Sunday Mulligan. 8th place gets about 6k and 7th gets around 8k. You haven’t done much in the two orbits since the tournament got to the final table. This hand you get KQs in early position and raise to 2x and change.
The table folds to the SB, who snap shoves. The BB folds.
The SB has been playing pretty loose, flatting a lot of raises preflop and then folding almost all flops, a strategy that has diminished his stack significantly over the last few orbits. His stats show him as a slightly losing player over a few hundred midstakes tournaments.
What’s your play?
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You’re getting about 1.6 – 1 here. If you call and lose, you’ll have a 10 BB stack with the blinds approaching in two hands.
What kind of range would you need your opponent to have for this call to be break-even? 77+, ATs+ and AJ gets you just about exactly there.
What’s the likely range of an opponent who has been flatting and folding? Well, one school of thought is that it’s only monsters – if he raised wide, he’d never have flatted so much earlier. Another school: faced with a dwindling stack and frustrated at all of the folding he’s had to do after flatting, our opponent is now fed up and raising pretty wide.
Given the specific opponent, I think you’re not getting the right price – I can’t see someone with this profile risking a few thousand on anything but a pretty solid hand. That and the fact that you still have a playable stack should you fold makes this decision fairly clear to me, although I can’t find a ton of fault with people who want to call.
What actually happened: You called and were shown AQs. You failed to suck out and lost the hand.
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Most n00bs tend to go all in once they hit a monster. Flop a set – all in!
That what this smells like
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I don’t like getting my money in like that against a weak player. Even if we are racing, it just seems like you have enough time to pick a better spot.
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I’d probably push myself with KQs but I’d be very unwilling to call with it unless I was in dire straights. I think a call is justifiable but i’d personally fold
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We only need a 37% hand to call but we’ve only put in 10% of our stack so I fold to his 5x shove. If we had raised 20k more pre flop or if opp had 20k less this would be an insta call.
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I think it’s very safe (with a bad player) to assume 99+ and AQ+ as his insta shove range. With a 36% hand, I hate my chances against that range. Fold and wait; if he’s that bad, you can pick on him later in the tourney.
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Fold, he has us beat, its only a matter of how bad we are beat. There is no way Im putting in more then half my stack, risking becoming a shortstack at the final table where the money jumps are huge, with KQs against a guy who has repeatedly just flat called raises in the past. Im an early position raiser with a tight image, and he of all people instashoves. Im folding this quicker then my spanish laundromat lady folds a pair of underwear. There is nothing to suggest we are ahead, and basically wed be lucky to be only a 60/40 dog.
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Don’t forget to take ICM into account. Losing chips is significantly worse than winning them. Even if the villain shoves as wide as the top 25% of hands we’re only 50/50 to win. At best we have a 50% chance of crippling ourselves.
Right now we’re in a good spot. We’re a short stack but we have enough chips to have significant fold equity for our blind stealing. This is exactly why it’s so important to be the one shoving rather than the one calling a shove. Fold.
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If you are going to fold to a reraise, what’s the point in raising UTG with a marginal hand? I’d have folded preflop.
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Against a “bad player” who’s been getting spanked recently as the setup says – I would think at some point the goofball would stop and take a breath and wait for something of quality. I would make an assumption that the player has Ace-rag suited to make a leap like that. Although I’d like my KQ, I’d hate to double up someone who’s starting to tilt.
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