Daily Hand Quiz

What we said then … How unfun.

Ok, so it’s roughly 1600 to win 8200, or just a little over 5-1. Those are pretty tempting odds. Also worth noting: you have at least some chips to mount a comeback with should you lose.

This is a pretty simple math problem. Assuming opponent bluffs less than 2% of the time here, they’re either on AA, QQ or AQ. you beat AQ. There are 12 ways to make AA and QQ, and 16 ways to make AQ. So, he has AQ about 60% of the time and a set the other 40%.

People are a little more likely to play sets slowly than two pair, so we’ll account for that. Let’s say it’s 50 / 50. Tighter players also might not three bet with AQ, so let’s weight for that as well and say it’s 40 / 60.

No matter how much you weight, the chance that they might hold AQ makes this a very difficult fold. You just don’t have to be right very often, and you’re heading for a short stack regardless of whether you fold or call.

It’s gross, but I think you call here.

What actually happened: You folded.

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5-1 with a set and you’re considering a fold. That’s just crazy talk!

99 + 22 are also part of the range which you beat.

Counter bluff also seems quite possible if they are a thinking opponent knowing that the chance of you having KJ for a straight is basically nothing

Call or shove. Fold? wtf?!?

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I’m too old to fold a set. Call.

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first of all the math above is wrong with an A and a Q on the table theres 3 ways of being delt a pair of either A or Q (6 ways in total) and 9 ways of being delt AQ
so the odds of him having a higher set is 9:6 against (not including the possible 9-set making it 12:6 against) Based on hand distribution it’s between 1.5:1 and 2:1 that we’re ahead if we say that he’d not play the AQ this way more than roughly 10% of the time and including the trips we’d be getting 4:6 which is still way better than the pot odds. if we’re certain his only play 10% of AQ, certain he’s not bluffing and certain he’s not playing 99 or any other hand than AA,QQ we’d be getting 1:6 and should fold but I know I’m never THAT certain of just one of the above.
I will however be ok with just taking what’s there already.

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funny, we obv. call the reraise pre for setvalue and when we hit, we not only fold, but give away another nice bet first. is that spewey or what? we clearly cant just call, cos that would cripple us down to 4-5M (with blinds to come right behind us) and folding is somewhat ridiculous as played so far, so i shove and hope to see AK or AQ (why shouldnt that hand think it is still best here and reraise us? we didnt show any strength and bet an insignificant card at the river).
EP openings with middle pairs is not the best idea anyway, with about 20 “outs” for overcards to come and a good chance having to play OOP for the rest of the hand, you will be rarely in a good spot here.

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no luck makes a very good point. Although the double check screams some sort of strength, deuces, 9-9 or A-Q are more than enough of his range to justify this, considering the pot. I call

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how come noboy is considering KJ? Am I missing something here? It makes perfect sense! IMO we´re doomed to call an loose, since he most likely has the straight (I mean no bets on flop and turn, then when there is a possible straight on the river, would he min-rise with a set? makes not much sense to me.); still the odds justify calling with a set, since he may also have AQ, QT or AT (all unlike hands); or he might be trying a re-steal.

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@cristiano guess coz only donks with suicidal tendencies would reraise with KJ against an UTG+1 opening, if the other guy rereraises or even shoves back he cant call; if he calls and the flop comes King high how can he be sure to have the best hand, espec. when opener decides to bet that flop; what if it is a Jack high? being up against QQ+ or AJ cant be outruled, even AK and AQ might have outs to redraw here. KJ is just crap in such a situation that’s why, and since the other guy is tagged as rather tight we can assume he knows that. if he is tricky/loose we cant outrule that hand completely but i guess in that case he would have at least bet the turn against obv. weakness, more likely followed his preflop aggression on the flop when it is checked to him. guess a guy like tomastomast could have it here, but when you look up his stats, you will know why no decent player would ever play that way.

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As no luck says, you’re giving the villain way too much credit if you actually make your set on the river and then fold. The minraise screams value bet; I think the villain’s most likely holding is AA. It’s consistent with the preflop action and the extreme slowplaying. However, given the pot odds I simply can’t fold. The villain will bluff sometimes (though a minraise bluff is unusual), or the villain might just be not that good and think slowplaying AQ was a good idea.

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Quizzes like the last two crack me up. There is no one in the world besides Phil Hellmuth that would possibly fold this. Sure, we all know when he minraises he might have gotten lucky playing k/j like a donk. Or he could easily have slowplayed rockets or queens. Yes, we might be beat, but there is a ton in the pot and we have a set. Done deal, make the crying call and hope you get to cheer about it.

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PS. the fact that raise got the most votes is really terrible (and makes me wonder why I havent gone pro). Raise is the only bad option. Theres enough in there and absolutely no need to voluntarily put our tourney at risk in a situation that has danger written all over it. The hand is done, collect if youre lucky enough to do so, or take your beating and hold on to enough chips to mount a comeback.

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@Kugelman yep, agree. that is why we should think before we bet the river here, we make people fold whom we would have beaten anyway, we make people call who would have bet for value anyway and we may face a reraise from people with a better hand (so we want to keep it small) or from people with worse who try to bluff (so we want to get as much as possible from them); unfortunately for the latter (reraising) case we cant savely decide which is which given the action so far. thus: check/calling the river is most likely not a mistake here, bet/folding definitely is. imho.

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@city as much as i like the idea of chipnchair,
with 2587 vs 575= ~4.5 M in the middle of a tourney and having to pay the BB in two rounds we need a major miracle for a come back here, so that’s one of the rare cases where
“i had to go with it, i was committed” is justified. if he calls and your hand holds up you get 10xBB more this way, if not you aren’t losing much considering ICM or by whatever you will value your tourneylife with. close to the bubble it is a different thing. imho.

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Oh yes, I remember this quiz. I still stand by my previous assessment; we are way ahead. We have the fifth nuts (AA, QQ, KJ and J8 all beat us). KJ and J8 are extremely unlikely (3 bet pre-flop), as are AA and QQ (unlikely villain checks the turn with two diamonds and straight possibilities on the board). If we are ahead, raising is certainly the correct play.

If we push all in, villain will have to call. He’ll have to call 2,587 into 12,662, giving him nearly 5-1 odds. That’s too good to resist, especially if he’s holding something like AK or 99. He could also call with KK, thinking (correctly) that you don’t have an ace.

This entire quiz is predicated on your hand analysis. It’s this simple: if you analyze the hand and believe you are best, you must raise. That’s how the best players make their money; getting those extra raises in. However, if you believe you are beat, you then determine the pot odds and the likelihood you are beat, and decide whether to call or fold. With the generous odds, even if I thought I was beat, I would still call here. But I don’t think we are beat. I think we are way ahead, and I would push all in.

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@no luck

4.5 M is PLENTY enough to mount a comeback, Ive seen much steeper climbs made, fairly often. Half of every final table was down to 4.5m at one point in the tourney.

I agree youre committed, and “have to go with it” thus the clear call. This does not mean volunteer your tourney life for a bit more when a call gets you a very nice pot if youre ahead anyway. This spot has danger written all over it, absolutely no reason to get greedy and risk busting.

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Given the villain’s image, I think KJ is unlikely. Would they slow-play a set or two pair with that board? Possibly, but that is risky considering the hero’s image and potential hand. With raise the villain is betting 40%+ of their stack on the riv, so I’d say AA is likely. Yet, with 5-1 odds and the hero’s image a call is in order in here. AK and AQ are potential holdings that the hero crushes.

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Over 4 to 1 is plenty for any potential set over set.

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Squeeze your ass, and call. If you’re beat, you’re beat in this case. I was in this similar spot a about a couple of days ago where i hit my set and they had a higher set from the get go. Sometimes you lose a battle, but it is the war that you need to win.

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he is tight. 3 bet preflop. and check on the flop. may be he has AA KK or QQ. If he has 3 of king on the flop he check. If he has KK he also check because he scared of the ace. So i think he has KK and scared about he ace. And you check also. so he think that you do not have the ace and theirKK are still good on the river. So you have 3 ok kind so you have to call. if he has QQ. That’s poker baby…

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This is very easily a call, going all-in here is awful and folding is nearly as bad. 2600 is definitely a short stack, but it’s worth a lot more on its own than it is added to a 12.7k stack, which is what you would have if you call and win. And of course, you ARE going to be beat a significant portion of the time. Reraising all-in is very foolish and an amateur move if ever there was one.

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uGh7uF comment1 ,

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