Daily Hand Quiz

Justin says … Before deciding what to do, I first had to assign our opponent a specific range of hands. I felt it was unlikely that his holding would include hands like AA, KK, and TT. While he might have played those hands in a similar way preflop, it is doubtful that he would have bet out with such strong hands on a relatively safe flop. Hands that did fall into his range included AT, KQ, KJ, QJ, QQ, and JJ, amongst other lesser holdings.

My next step was to estimate my outs. I could safely assume that the four jacks in the deck would give me the winning hand. The three remaining aces and three remaining queens could also give me the winning hand. However, not knowing for sure that all six cards would help me, I decided to estimate that three out of the six cards would win the pot for me. The last way I could win the pot was to make a runner-runner diamond flush. For this I estimated one more out, giving myself a total of eight outs.

With eight outs, my chances of winning are approximately 34%. The easiest way to make this estimation is to multiply your outs by 2 and then add 1, which in this case equals 17%. Then simply multiply by the number of cards still to come to get your total odds of hitting your hand. In this example, our odds of hitting equal 34%.

The next step was to calculate my pot odds. I had to call $1,755 to win the $4,935 pot. Simply dividing $1,755 by $4,935 told me that I would need to have a 35.6% chance of winning the hand to make calling the bet correct. As you can see from these calculations, calling would be a slightly negative long term decision using these ranges.

However, the last factor to consider when facing a close decision is your stack’s ability to withstand losing the pot. I began the hand with $7,795 in chips and I had $7,195 when facing the all-in bet. If I lost, I would be left with $5,440, which was still extremely healthy at that early stage of the tournament. If I won, I would have $10,375 and an increased ability to withstand losing pots later, as well as the ability to see more flops.

In the end, the value of increasing my stack early in the tournament (something I always attempt to do), bridged the gap between the mathematical difference (1.6%) and led to my final decision to call.

This may seem like a lot to consider when quickly deciding how to play a hand. However, with experience this thought process will become second nature and will help you make more profitable decisions.

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I have ace high and an opponent, who limped UTG and called my raise, bet into me. I don’t like my chances. I fold.

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You’re anywhere from absolutely dominated to mildly dominated. This feels like AA.

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you didn’t mention AK which in my opinion is a possible holding and would have you in a very tough spot. At best this is a coin flip, at worst he’s got you completely dominated. I take my 7,000 and look for a better spot.

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The UTG limp was the first piece of information, the call the second – basically any pair and could easily be AA and possibly AK if opp is trappy/ tricky. The all in overbet on rainbow flop is IMO most likely AA, then QQ-JJ then AK. I fold to the overbet as we may only have four clean outs.

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Excelent eval from the staff. Nice determination of the hands he might hold, the worst spot here would be KQ, QT, AT; he would most likely bluff the other missed brodway; he would shove any low pair betting on the missed ace, unless I knew him as a really tight player, I cant see a fold here.
It might seem as a long term loss, but his calling the raise tells me he has no AA, AK or KK, his call tells me no QQ-TT nor AQ; so I actually have a really good chance of having 11 outs; when I have 8 outs, I am not that far behind; when not, I have a nice stack to withstand the loss and I send a message to the table I cannot be easily bluffed out of a hand like this.

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great eval, and disappointing not to see more evals in this fashion.

however, I disagree with the stack analysis – when you have more chips, the value per chip goes down. It is close, but I would throw it away.

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Anyway you slice it, he needs 2-1 to cover even his possibly way overestimated outs and hes is getting less than even money. I don’t see how you call.
Smells to me like protecting top pair so an A or Q could be tough, I’d suspect AK because I dont know about calling 4x blind with KQ. Even if he’s semibluffing with an underpair you dont have odds on a call. FOLD.

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oops, sorry about the 2-1, I misread the pot. The rest still applies I’d give him 4.5 sure outs(4J .5 runner flush) fearing the A or the Q. around 18% to be safe. Not even close from my perspective.

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Did nobody else notice that the pot odds he used were wrong? Hero has to call $1,755 to win $3,180, not $4,935. You can’t add the size the pot will be after you call to your calculations; you can only consider the currrent size of the pot. Thus, your odds are 1.8-1, not 2.8-1. However, the percentages are accurate, so I guess it works out somehow. Just don’t get in the habit of using the size the pot will be after your call in your calculations.

It’s a borderline decision for sure, and I couldn’t really fault either move. I personally would probably fold, but I can see the logic of the call. Good staff analysis, and it would be nice to know how the hand played out.

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I would fold. The UTG player has committed 25% of their stack oop p/f, then shoves with a K on the flop. With AQ, hero’s outs at best are 8, giving 1 for the runner-runner flush. Hero is priced-out.

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At this point in the tourney, I’m trying to build stack – not lose it. There’s many more hands to play for a more reasonable price – and we’re clearly behind right now.
The call makes more sense to me later when the blinds are increasing and villain’s range probably opens up a little.

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Good analysis. My first instinct was fold! but analysis swayed my mind.

Villian hand range is too conservative IMO. Misplayed stuff like suited connects that missed are possible – people have been known to bluff before =)

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