Daily Hand Quiz

How unfun.

Ok, so it’s roughly 1600 to win 8200, or just a little over 5-1. Those are pretty tempting odds. Also worth noting: you have at least some chips to mount a comeback with should you lose.

This is a pretty simple math problem. Assuming opponent bluffs less than 2% of the time here, they’re either on AA, QQ or AQ. you beat AQ. There are 12 ways to make AA and QQ, and 16 ways to make AQ. So, he has AQ about 60% of the time and a set the other 40%.

People are a little more likely to play sets slowly than two pair, so we’ll account for that. Let’s say it’s 50 / 50. Tighter players also might not three bet with AQ, so let’s weight for that as well and say it’s 40 / 60.

No matter how much you weight, the chance that they might hold AQ makes this a very difficult fold. You just don’t have to be right very often, and you’re heading for a short stack regardless of whether you fold or call.

It’s gross, but I think you call here.

What actually happened: You folded.

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I Call !!! If he has a set bigger than mine, then so be it!! But show it to me, because im not folding a set in this situation. And i think he raised with Jacks..

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Two checks and a raise…very strange behaviour for a flopped set…I think that with QQ he should have raised more preflop so I put him on AA or AQ…the min raise on the river screams AA but I don’t fold a set for 5-1 odds…I call

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the only other hand I was thinking was KJ, that got there – seems a bit odd that he would re-raise pre with that holding – but maybe he was mixing it up and trying to steal our open.

any how – i call – and he has to show me a hand that beating me.

which he probs does.

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Call then say nice hand when the tightish donk rolls over aces. We only need to be good less than one time in five for this to be profitable as much as the min raise does suck.

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I opted to call. Hero’s image is agg so that widens the tightish range, although he/she probably would not 3-bet with KJ. With a couple of dims on board, I believe we would have heard something on the turn if the v had AA or QQ. Call and hope to see AK, AQ, AJ … if not we have 10x bb left to mount a rally.

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so what happened on the turn? with AQ, AA or QQ I wouldn’t expect him to be checking twice.

I also see him likely with JJ, trying to get KK or AJ to fold.

we might be beat, but pot odds makes this an easy call.

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I agree with Kaimano as well. Two checks and a raise is unusual but the miniraise on the river reeks of a high set. Even worse, at this buy in my experience is that the miniraise of a 3x bet pre flop is aces more often than not. Still, I barf and call…

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OK, I must be insane, but I’m almost positive we have the best hand right now. What hand could he hold that would 3-bet pre-flop, check flop, check turn and min-raise river? Is there any hand that is logical here? I can understand checking the flop with a monster, but almost NOBODY would check the turn with a flush draw on the board holding AA, QQ, AQ or 99. A tight player doesn’t 3-bet KJ preflop. This smells very fishy to me.

I think a call is at least mandatory. 5-1 odds means you only have to win about 17% of the time to show a profit. However, I think the right move here is to raise. Villain’s bets simply don’t add up to a big hand (in my book). I think Staff is way off considering his bluffing percentage. I definitely believe in Harrington’s theory on this one; you can never logically set somebody’s bluffing percentage at less than 10%. People bluff, it happens all the time.

I also can’t believe Staff says villain’s only three possible hands are AA, QQ or AQ. Why not AK? Why not 99? Why not KK? Those hands actually make more sense given the betting. At any rate, I think we are facing something like AK or 99, or a complete bluff. Either way, we’re winning. Breathe deep and shove.

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Also, there are not 16 ways to make AQ, only nine. There’s already an ace and a queen out there, so you have three of each remaining, and 3×3=9. That means (according to Staff’s calculations) he’s holding a set 58% of the time, and AQ 42% of the time, which really screws up Staff’s math. But the problem isn’t the math, it’s the hand analysis, which I think is way off.

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Shoving on a board that straightened and flushed and a villian that min bet for value is stoopid. Call and hope your set is good.

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Ten is wrong suit for flush but still would never shove.

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You really think he has KJ? That he re-raised pre-flop with it (he’s tight, remember)? I think that’s a very unlikely hand. This isn’t Omaha, or I would agree with you.

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No, I do not think he has KJ but I’m not risking my whole stack on if he has me beat. Im ok with taking the pot as is. I do not have the nuts so I call.

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Shoving is utterly, obviously and clearly dominated strategy here – there is no hand that we beat which will call us, and no hand that we don’t beat is going to fold to our shove. Just throwing away perfectly good chips.

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I don’t get it…Roughly 1600 to call? 5:1 pot odds? 12 ways to make AA and QQ on a AQ9 flop?! I bet the staff was piss drunk when they wrote this analysis…

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1850 to call, 1:4.445 pot odds to be precise (so 1500 and 1:5 aren’t actually that far off the mark), and it was 12 ways to make AAA and QQQ what they meant, I suppose.

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yeah, i botched the math a little. it should be 66% / 33% AQ vs AA and QQ.

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I voted raise and that is the best play.

You have the 5th nuts–you lose to AA, QQ, KJ, J8.

splits: unmod AA, unmod QQ, pf .15 for KJ, .10 J8 , min reraising with those hands is not standard play

Losing modified cc: 6*2+16*.15+16*.1=
=12+2.4+1.6=16

You beat everything else: AK, AQ, AJ, A10, A9, KK, KQ, 99, Q10.

pf mod: .5 AK (he could have pushed harder), .8 A10 (could be trying to take it down vs a steal or catch a coup), .6 A9, .4 KQ, .4 99, .1 Q10

=16*(.5+.8+.6+.4+.1)+.4*6=43

Opp’s cc you beat: 43

Even with a very tight range for your opponent, the number of cc you beat is much greater than the number you lose to (43>16) so folding is out of the question.

So call or reraise?
What would call a reraise?
AK,AQ,A10,A9, 99, Q10 would all call a raise
mod cc: (.5+.8+.6)*16+.4*6+.1*16=34.4

AA, QQ, Kj, j8 would all also call a raise.
mod cc=16

34.4>16,

The math demonstrates the correct play here is to raise.

Since you’ve been aggro and he’s been tight, these factor tend towards him making a looser call– He could commit with AJ also having dug a hole that deep and with the large size of the pot.

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This hand is too good to let go, but his min raise on the flop gives me the feelint that either he has a strong made hand or is drawing for the straight; so the lead on the river does not feel like a strong play. I’d rather check the river and call any bet; as it went I call feeling like a sucker.

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I’m not folding here 95 % of the time, so i shove and give him my stack if he slowplayed a set. The hand doesn’t make much sense but it sounds like a steal.

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Shoving is just outright wrong, think about it the reason that you put in your last raise was for value, weak players often will slow play against looser players and will under bet for value themselves, or as times underbet for a bluff so.

A) if it’s a bluff your re-raise won’t get called anyways there for you only win the same amount that you would had by raising and unlikely to get paid off. plus if it’s a bluff you lose a bit of free ranging if you just calling and seeing what your opponent was holding, information is power.

B) You are beat, raising you either will be reraised or called and you’re beat or if it’s a shove, you are called and you’re beat, don’t let the math fool you!

c) you fold? well if you do then I know you over analyze the reverse holdings and I can run over you or on the other hand if you flat call and I win say holding the nuts I won’t want to river bluff a dangerous board against someone I see as a strong player in the future. it is +ev long term to pay off value bets as painful as that might be.

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I voted go all in, but I certainly understand calling given the suprise nature of the call. Folding is not an option.

He doesn’t have KJ or J8 for sure. AA, AQ, or QQ would bet here on the turn because there are flush and straight possiblilities that you could hold. Not only that, he needs to start building a pot to get his hand paid off. If you have a flush or straight draw, this represented his last chance to make chips. Once the river is in, you either made your hand or you didn’t. Given the A and Q on the board, there is no magic card that will make you call a raise on the river instead of the turn unless it beats you. You could conceivably make lower trips, but that’s not worth the risk. This is not a slow play situation.

When the river flops, he doesn’t know you’ve got a set of tens. He’s seen Bet-Call, Check, Check, Bet. It looks like a medium-small pocket pair all the way. You value raise-bluffed the river.

He sees it is a dangerous flop. To combat against your pocket pair, the min raise is perfect. He is leaving himself in the game if he has to fold but knows that it is extremely tough for you to call against this board without a strong hand. He may also have a weakish hand like like a PP, but unwilling to go out without a fight after seeing your betting pattern. He’s tightish, but tightish players make low risk, high reward plays like this.

If he’s got a straight or trip A or Q, he should reraise you all in on the river. You’re not normally going to raise KJ or J8 preflop and call a reraise. You’ve shown a willingness to commit your chips with your river bet, and a tourney player would have to try to get his chips in here. It’s not a cash game. You just don’t get that many spots to get paid off.

“Assuming opponent bluffs less than 2% of the time here” as the staff stated makes the math easy, but none of the hands they examine seem likely.

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I think its very sickening but you have to call…I can’t see myself getting away from a set here and I’m fairly sure since we have such an aggressive image he may be raising not only AQ but possibly could have AK given this action he may think we’re trying to steal on the river and thinks his aces are good. Given that line of reasoning I can’t fold a river set…thats too sick for me, if I lose then I’ll move on to the next hand and try to make a comeback.

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none

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