Archive Pick: Marginal hand blind versus blind, no limit tournament

What we said then: Let’s start with the shove, which I think is the standard play for most people. BB is tight, but you look crazy, so their range is going to open up at least a little. Let’s say 55+, A9o+ and KQo+. That’s about 10% of hands, and you’re about 70-30 facing that range. So 90% of the time you win 7,300, and the remaining 10% of the time when you’re called you lose 11,410. That puts the shove at about +5500. Not bad, but not a huge pickup relative to your stack.

Folding might help your image a little bit, and it preserves your stack.

As for raising: If you make it 10k to go and the BB shoves, you’ll be looking at 27k to win roughly 50k. Even if you assume he gets a little friskier with the potential to make you fold and includes more weak aces, broadway and pairs in his range, you’re not getting the right price. You basically have to assume he’s shoving any ace, pair or face cards down to JT to get 2-1. So, raise-calling seems out.

What you raise - fold? If he reships about 15% of the time (which seems fair): 85% you win 7,300 and 15% of the time you lose 10k. That’s a plus of 4705 and it’s a much less volatile play. I think the decrease in volatility is worth the ~800 chip EV difference.

What about calling? He probably reships about the same amount, so 15% of the time you lose 1500. If you lead every flop for 6k and give up when you’re called, he’ll fold when he misses, which should be about 65% of the time. So, 35% of the time you lose 7500 and 65% of the time you win 8800 for a net + of about 3k. All that together equals a net win of about 2300 for the play.

Against an observant, aggressive player, raise-fold would probably be a massive mistake, but I think it’s the right play here.

What actually happened: You shoved and the BB called, showing AJ. The AJ held up and they won the pot.

I downright fold, maths put aside, i just think if the player is smart enough here, he WILL be shoving ATC, and im not committing anything with K4 off, so ill surprise everyone and fold it this round, next orbit, it will probably be a different story though !

Agree with JoTigidou, if BB is just a little bit observant, ATC shove is a real possibility.

I would fold too. Hes calling with a lot of hands. No reason to waste chips here. Its good for my image too.

Depends on the player, but if he really is that tight then I raise/fold. Against a stronger oponent I probably go for the shove.

I don’t fold as on average I am likely to win chips here and I can afford to take a hit - on both chips and images - with my stack

My stack and the antes makes this a raise fold with any two against a tight opp in the bb. And I would raise to no more than 3xBB to save chips when opp does wake up with a hand.

I like the raise-fold here. I think most of the time you’re simply going to pick up the blinds, and if he fights back, it’s an easy getaway. That move or a simple fold work for me, I wouldn’t limp here, though.

I disagree with Staff saying a shove is the “standard play”. Why the hell would you risk 35% of your stack by shoving with K4? I know many of us are internet players, and thus are aggressive (by nature or nurture), but still, shoving with K4? I don’t think there’s any way I would do that unless I had villain 10-1 in chips.

With that stack there isn’t much reason to play anything but premium hands at this point.

Maybe I just play too many turbo SNGs, but by this point in the tournament my standard preflop raise is 2.5BB. Against a tight player I make that move here–even assuming I never win when called (and of course I fold if raised) I only need him to fold 45% of hands to make it a break-even play. And making this move a few times puts me in a great spot if I pick up a hand somewhere between CO and SB with the table folded to me.

Fold. With your image, and his stack, any other play is likely to end up with you betting a 3rd of your stack on a crap hand. Thats bad poker.

Raise-fold. You’ve got enough chips to take a stab at it try and pick up his blind. He can’t be too itchy to pull the trigger on marginal hands because he probably would have done it a hand or two or three ago. Make it 9000 to stay. He’s waiting for his big hand to shove… he’s either got it or he doesn’t. There’s a very good chance he doesn’t…

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