AQ suited facing UTG shove, NL MTT

While some tougher tournaments might find deceptive players making this move UTG with a very strong hand, I think in a $30 rebuy this is exactly what it looks like - a mediocre hand. I’d say the range is a lot of small pairs and some AJish hands - maybe JJ and AK every now and again. AQ is about a flip against that range - not bad with the 2k added.

But, there’s all those people behind - about seven of them or so. You’ll probably only get called behind by JJ or better, and maybe AK. With the cards you hold, that’s about a 3% chance per player, or about 20% overall. When you do get called behind, you’ll suck out every now and again.

Without digging too far into the math, this is pretty much a neutral EV call. Since you’re short, the blinds are approaching and the money’s still a bit off, I think this is a fine time to gamble - seems like it’s time to chip up or go home.

What actually happened: You folded.

Mediocre hand, playable stack, early position, UTG raiser, what else do you need to fold?

I agree with the staff that it’s about a neutral call odds wise, but I used that logic to vote fold - you still have a stack to wait for a better spot and it is “nearing the money”

I voted call. I think hes got a fairly wide range. Im going to say a/10s+, KQ, 66+. The blinds are about to hit him, and people tend to panic when shortstacked in these situations. Its possible he’s got even worse of a hand then Im giving him credit for. If I was gearing up to raise, then I was clearly willing to get the money in with this hand anyway, so by going all in with the UTG’s all in, I get it in against a decently favorable range and scare out all but the most premium hands at the rest of the table. It would take QQ or better for the rest of the table to make a call here. I dont think even AK would do it, figuring they’re up against at least a pair and some outs are likely gone.

This is an easy fold for me. He’s not raising UTG with nothing. AQ, all be it suited, isn’t really that strong. 13k is plenty of chips for me to play poker with.

I go for the fold.

However, vs a loose opponent in a game with antes, I don’t think considering a call is way off either. I once saw someone openpush A9o with about the same M in early position in WSOP ME last year, so I guess you can see a lot of trash here.

I am just too nittish to call it.

It’s possible that he’s shoving with rags, and it’s possible that he has a monster and is hoping for you to pick off his “bluff”.

I think these two possibilities roughly cancel one another out, meaning it’s time to decide if you want to gamble. Here, I say no. Seven players still to act, including one VERY deep stack that can look you both up comfortably. I’m cursing loudly at my monitor, but I still fold this hand.

I voted fold. There are 3 smaller stacks behind you, so let them join the fray. Assuming you don’t play the next few hands, you’ll still have ~15 BBx when you get position. Then you can think about gambling, plus you have may have made the money by then.

I don’t understand why anyone would call here…the guy’s stack isn’t that short…its not like he’s forced to shove with absolute garbage UTG. I fold all day.

Better question is would you go all in with this hand if you were under the gun? I sure wouldn’t because if you get called you’re in a race at best. You still have some chips. Pick a better spot.

Going all in with this hand utg and calling with it utg+1 are completely different imo.

Pretty easy fold IMO, I saw it as neutral ev as did the staff, but we don’t need to be so desperate quite yet. I’d rather push than call with a short stack anyway. Fold and wait for a better spot.

I voted fold because there are two large stacks behind you that are getting 3 to 1 on there money or better plus the button who may have implied odds on pushing half his stack if one of the bigger stacks call giving him 4 to 1 or better. I just think that there is too much possible action and AQ suited is not a hand i want to risk my tourney life on against a probable 3 possibly 4 opponents.

It also depends on how tricky the UTG is. With a very aggressive table image it is actually a nice play to push AA/KK under the gun - your smaller raises get called light and you may easily end up playing your aces multiway OOP, while push loudly announces that you have a mid pair that you don’t want to take a flop with and could get you customers with AQ and the like :).

Anyway, I too agree with staff’s analysis that it’s pretty much a neutral EV call. However, due to the position it’s a pretty high volatility situation - like staff said there’s about one in five chance that somebody will wake up with a real hand and then we have some serious sucking out to do or we go home. Add this on top of what otherwise is a coinflip for tournament life and I am folding.

I voted fold, villain likely has some middle pair. I’d fold for a couple reasons, One; early position, two; 14 cards on the table after mine, how many blockers among them?