Sevens facing all in near bubble, NL MTT

You’re getting about 1.6-1 on this call, which is a pretty attractive price. I like to think that the SB would play AA and KK a little more slowly sometimes, so while you can’t take those hands out of their range, you can diminish their weight a little bit.

It’s hard to say what the typical reship range is here. On one hand, you’ve been pretty active, which should widen their range a bit. They also have a good stack for a reship, and they’re short enough to be willing to take a chance. On the other hand, you raised in early position and you have enough chips to call (albeit not easily), which should narrow their range a bit.

I think their range is decently wide. I think the way this happens for most people is they get dealt a decent hand in the SB and get mentally attached to it before they see the action in front. So I think the SB goes down to AJ and 55. You’re about a 55-45 dog to that range.

So, you’re getting a positive price to call, but it’s not a huge edge. If you lose, you’ll be a 13 BB stack or so, meaning you’ll have at least a little play left. If you win, you’ll have a pretty decent stack to make plays with on the bubble. If you pass, you’ll have a playable stack without much margin for error.

I think the value of a good stack on the bubble in addition to the slightly EV quality of the call tips this to a call, although I don’t think folding can be that big of a mistake.

What actually happened: You called and the SB showed AQ. You lost the race and the pot.

I make it 2.5 to 1 pot odds and so we only need a 28% hand to call but without a read I would think we will either be a flip or 80-20 dog (can’t see an underpair to ours shoving here nearing the bubble). That being the case I fold with a comfortable stack (M of 10).

Fucking online donks; everyone thinks AQ is a great hand these days…

@ Richard, how do you get 2.5-1? You have to call 7,000 into 11,500, which is actually 1.6-1.

In this case, if you aren’t flipping, you’re way behind (it’s hard to see him shipping with 66-22). I’d put SB on 88+, AJ+ and maybe KQ if he’s feeling frisky. At any rate, you’ll have to get lucky to win. While the 1.6-1 odds are fair, your hand is not that good. Fold, and tighten up a bit. You can be sure your raises will get some action after you fold to this re-raise.

…and in a crisis mode at this point in a tournament, it is. Notice how the villain ended up winning.

Fold, because you know a guy shoving like this is holding all paint or ace-anything and any stray over card on the board can double him up.

I voted call, I think hes got 2 overs the vast majority of the time and Ive got the slightly better end of a race. He might have me crushed, but that seems less likely statistically. He could also have an even smaller PP or even Ace-rag if he thinks we’ll fold, and we’d be way ahead. With the money we have in there, all in all, a call seems +EV to me. We can still make the money if we lose, and we give ourselves a nice shot at taking advantage of bubble play and making it deeper if we win.

@ Rhycar

I get 2.5 to 1 as I am a tired donk having stayed up all night my time watching the election. Can Obama overturn the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act? Yes he can.
For sure it is 1.6 to 1, 38% hand. I’m still folding though - it could well be +EV against opponents range but IMO more often than not we will lose and have to nurse a short stack into the bubble.

Wow, one of the worst quizzes to date. What are we hoping here? That he shoved from the SB for 13xBB with A6o? Or that we might be racing? With the 2.5xBB raise with 77, we are looking to win the pot 3 ways
1) folds around and we pick up blinds
2) we are called and the board pairs with low cards, we can then pick up the pot or get value on the turn likely.
3) We are called and the board gives only 1 over that is not an A, K, or Q. We probably have the best hand and can either bet a little for value off chasers or check it depending on the texture of the board.
4) We are called and flop a set.

Calling an allin reraise shove preflop from a guy who next hand could get a full 7 hands without posting the blinds that we don’t have a strong read on isn’t one of those 4.
Fold.

I like the call, but like the staff said the fold isn’t a bad play either. I mean if you want to just sneak into the money thats awesome, fold the hand, if you want to play for the final table and make a good cash then I call. I think we’re racing a very large percent of the time.

Considering this is online play some things I would like to know are:
1) What is the average chip stack, and where do we stand with ours.
2) Close to the bubble, but how close? How close are the bottom players to busting?

I consider these things in an online tourney, because that information is easily available, and because more importantly, you can guage whether a coin flip is a risk you can take. If the bubble players are still sitting on a few blinds, then no, don’t take the risk.
If it looks like they could easily bust soon, then why not, flip the coin, and try to juice your stack up.

I think if he had me crushed with big pair he wouldnt make that push so you can pretty much put him on 2 over’s like ak/aq/aj or smallish pair. I’ve got a pretty good chip count and id have to call off half my stack on a race no matter what the price i’m getting, sometimes the situation doesn’t warrant a call for what i’m risking.

He’s about M-10, and has been waiting for his all-in hand. And he’s being fairly patient about it if he didn’t shove UTG. There’s a very good chance he’s holding 2 decent over’s. A slim chance he’s holding a pocket pair less than yours. And a slim chance he’s holding a pocket pair greater than yours. You’ve got the chips to stay competitive at this table if you fold, but if you loose this probable race, you’re in a world of hurt.

Not worth the gamble. Lay it down, and move on…