May 17, 2012

Daily Hand Quiz

DailyHandQuiz

Game type: 6 max $30 Rebuy, PokerStars
Stage of tourney: Later stages, rebuy period closed
Your image: Tightish
Opponent’s image: Same
Your hand: K♣J♣

The setup: You’re in the later stages of this $30 rebuy tournament. You took a nasty beat a few orbits ago and you’ve been nursing an increasingly short stack since.

This hand you’re happy to see KJ suited on the cutoff. When the table folds to you, you raise to a little under 3x. The button thinks for a bit and then re-raises, putting you all in. The blinds fold.

What’s your play?

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7 COMMENTS  (Jump to comment form)

DHQ Staff


It’s become gospel, more or less, that you simply can’t raise and fold with 15ish BB stacks preflop. So, can you fold here?

The fact that this is 6 max makes a point for going with the hand. Your M isn’t that great to begin with, and your effective M is even worse being 6 handed.

Your hand is pretty easily dominated, but is in slightly better shape than a KQ.

You’re getting about 1.6 – 1. That’s a little shy of what you need to be getting against the button’s likely re-raising range (55+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo). If you expand their range to include weaker pairs and aces, you get to the right price.

I think that this is actually pretty marginal, but since it’s a six max tournament, you don’t have the luxury of waiting for better spots. Call and prepare to suck out.

What actually happened: You folded.

[Reply]

Richard P


With 38% pot odds we have the odds to call against anything which isn’t AA-JJ. With an M of 7 (which as staff say is effectively less) and a semi decent hand in a decent position I would have shoved pf and wouldn’t now be thinking about opponents range.

[Reply]

Richard P


Also should have said we don’t have the odds against AK, AJ and KQ.

[Reply]

Rhycar


Yeah, this is a hand that is way too easily dominated. Thus, you should have pushed pre-flop or folded. Now you’re in a real jam. The problem is you’re way behind almost all hands he could re-raise you with. There are maybe three hands you aren’t in bad shape against (AQ, AT and TT). Sorry Staff, but if he’s putting me all in with 55, then he’s not that tight. I’m folding and waiting for a chance to shove preflop.

[Reply]

LVFlopLag


You have to call, if you did not expect to call you should not have raised with this hand. The preferred action would have been to push, but that was before you raised, now you call and see the five cards.

[Reply]

andy


Definitely have to call.

Not a great hand but one you can’t get away from at this point. I actually like the standard raise here as long as you fully intend to play this hand to the finish, which this person clearly did not. Also the fact that it’s the big stack (and probably the closest thing to the bully) re-raising makes it even easier to call…

You were M 10 to begin with. You’re M 8 if you fold. You’re short handed. Blinds are coming…

It’s time…

[Reply]

McCowish


I voted fold.

My reasons are similar to rhycar’s.
“Yeah, this is a hand that is way too easily dominated. Thus, you should have pushed pre-flop or folded. Now you’re in a real jam. The problem is you’re way behind almost all hands he could re-raise you with. There are maybe three hands you aren’t in bad shape against (AQ, AT and TT). Sorry Staff, but if he’s putting me all in with 55, then he’s not that tight. I’m folding and waiting for a chance to shove preflop.”

I concur with Rhycar; the reraise range for a tight villian does NOT include 55-77. 88 and 99 are border territories which will occassionally, maybe 20% of the time be played. That leaves

88 and 99: 6*2*.2=2.4cc,
cc Victory: .5*2.4cc=1.2cc

1010=6 cc:
cc Victory: .5*6=3cc
JJ=3cc
cc V: .24*3= approx .7cc
QQ=6 cc
cc V QQ= .25*3=approx .8cc
KK= 3 cc
cc V KK= .10*3= approx .3cc
AA= 6 cc
cc V AA = .18*6= approx .6cc

AJ= 12cc
cc V AJ = .27*12= 3.2cc

AQ= 16cc
cc V AQ= .4*16= 6.4 cc
AK = 12 cc
cc v AK = .3*12=3.6cc

total cc of villains normal range: 66.4 cc
win cc if you call all-in: 19.8cc

win cc/total cc = 19.8/66.4 = .30 = 30% to win
pot odds require the chance of winning to be equal to at least this or greater than to break even: 1/(1.6+1)=.38

Our win cc/total cc is =19.8/66.4=.30
.30<.38

Our win percentage for range is less than the pot odds by a significant amount, and our tournament survival is less than .34, a random hand against against big Ace. Therefore, we fold.

[Reply]

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