Archive Pick: Small pair in BB, WSOP satellite

What we said then… You don’t really have any fold vig here, so this becomes one of those problems where you just assume that you’re actually facing an all in. In that case, you’re calling about 9k to win about 13k. So, do you feel ok about getting a little worse than 1.5-1 here? Well, against a range that includes all aces, pairs and broadway, you’re flipping. Even against a less favorable range that cuts out the pairs lower than yours and a lot of the broadway cards, you’re still only a slight dog.

It’s a turbo, and only the top two spots are worth much of anything. I’d rather raise than call with small pairs, but this seems like a decent spot to gamble.

What actually happened: You folded

Your M is about 5, this is probably a flip, I think its time to go for it. Push.

Being that it is a turbo event with rapidly escalating blinds, and that the button is a reasonably competent player, we can assume that his range of hands for making this raise is much wider than it would usually be. also given the action of the hand and your tight image, this would seem to be a perfect opportunity for a blind steal so the button couold literally have any two cards albeit very likely two overcards making it close to a toss. Given that only first and second place pay and it is late in the event I say push is the ONLY play here.

Would anyone call and bet their remaining 4543 into the post flop pot of 12100? This might be a better way of playing against the lower end of his range, where we are still currently flipping.

Thats probably what I would have done… so CALL.

Putting your stack in here is pure spew, I’m not really sure how there can be any discussion honestly. Unless your supposition is that he is raising 100% of his hands here (which he isn’t), then his range has 0 hands that you are ahead of. It consists of hands that you are way behind and hands that you are flipping with. I’m not a big fan of putting all of my chips in and hoping that I’m just a coinflip.
Also, if he has 12k in chips to start the hand (it’s never explained) and he is raising and not open shoving @ 6/1200, that only means that his range is smaller and the amount of hands in it that have you dominated is larger.
Also, you say that it is a turbo, implying that that is a good reason to be looser with your chips. It isn’t. The fact that it is a turbo means that the chips you may accumulate from this hand are only going to be in jeopardy very shortly. They aren’t going to help you accumulate a big stack like they would in a non-turbo. With a short stack in a turbo you need to be selective with your spots and look for opportunities to steal blinds + antes, not call off your chips and hope for a coinflip.

Our M is under 4. We have no fold vig if shove as opp would only need a 22% hand to call and if he’s a reasonable player he will know that and not raise almost 30% of his stack with trash. So do we want to gamble after someone showing interest (lets not rule out the fact that he could have a pair too) or do we want to wait and push first. I would normally insta 3 bet shove in this spot due to the blinds but our Q is ok. I voted fold.

I hate turbo rebuy satellites.

Anyway, I kinda voted fold, but that is because I am a wuss overstimating my FE in the following hands, nevermind the chances I will get a chance to open. With antes in there and all, I probably ougth to take the (hopefully) flip.

I answered what I would do, not what I should.

I see no fold vig pre-flop, so IMO it is a call and allin no matter what the flop is.
I am commited as soon as i enter the hand and there is more fold vig after the flop. Is as much a gamble as an allin move, you will probably only get called after the flop if you are behind, but, then he might get scared and letgo a better hand.

If you do fold, you’re going to lose another 700 on the next hand (in the SB). That will give you an M of 3, meaning you’ve pretty much got to shove in the next seven hands or less. So in making your decision, you also have to consider if you’re likely to get in a more agreeable decision in the next half dozen hands.

I say this situation is good enough for me to shove, but if you want to wait, fine. The only caveat is you need to shove before the BB hits you again.

SHOVE….THE ODDS SAY YOU ARE LIKELY TO BE AHEAD….Albeit Flipping it

Take the race…As only top 2 get prizes…With still 30 runners left.

Plus Your M is wank if you fold and in the SB next hand! Your probably not gonna get one of the 9 hands that are better than 55…Pre-flop next hand…So GET IT ALL IN THERE AND THEN…If you dont win the race…you were never destined to win the satelitte

Stop-n-Go for sure call his raise shove any flop..can sometimes get 6s 7s 8s 9s to fold on scary boards

My opponent is in position, first to enter the pot, betting 4x the big blind.. little bit more than a standard raise. Previous observations of this guy and his actions on the button, would help decide my move here.
If he’s aware of the gap concept, id imagine hed have anything playable, possibly even medium suited connectors. Id also be thinking with a stack like his, and at this stage of the tourney, it would be a good time to mix it up a little too. In this scenerio however id probably shove.

Because he will be getting 3 to 1 to call if you shove, you don’t have any fold equity. Against a range including KJ+, you probably flipping. If he had AA or KK, he probably would have raised less to induce a call or resteal, so I’m knocking that possibly down to 30%. With that, he has 68.6 higher pocket pair combinations.

If he had a pocket pair that you had dominated (22-44), he may have decided to shove you preflop to insure against a call, but probably not. Perhaps he would have even folded the 22. I’ll give him only playing the deuces 60% of the time and 70% on the 33-55. 3.6+3*4.2= 16.2 lower pocket pairs you have dominated.

I’m putting his shove on A8o+ for aces, KJo+ for kings.

aces
12cc/h: A8-AKo: 72 card combinations
4cc/h: A9s-AKs: 24 cc
kings
12cc/h: KJ and KQ: 24
4cc/h: KJs and KQs: 8

o overs: 96
s overs: 32

total mod cc w/o bluff: 212.8

Bluff and Atypical holdings
Given your tight image and his tight aggressive image, it’s possible that he’s making a play here. The problem is that most of the hands he could make a play with have 2 overs to yours as well and he’s getting the price to call. I’ll give him 10% making a play, 90% to make the call while making the play (which I will assume is 1 for simplicity), and is still coin flipping with you 85% of the time, you have him 73-27% the the other 15% (low ace).

total cc with bluff: 212.8*(10/9)=236.4
bluff cc=236.4-212.8=23.8

Assumption: Since pot will be the same if you play because you can not just call, and raise-fold is a very unlikely occurence for him because of being priced in and still shovable for 3-4 hands.

Must be >50%, 118.2 cc to raise all.
Chances of winning:
He has a higher pp than me: .2*68.6= 13.8
I have a higher pp than him: .8*16.2=13.0
He has 2 unsuited overs normal range: .54*96=51.8
He has 2 suited overs normal range: .5*32=16.0

bluff: your hand versus o overs .54*.6*23.8= 7.7
your hand versus s overs: .5*.25*23.8= 3.0
your hand versus 1 over and 1 under outside his normal range (bluff-unusual play): .73*.15*23.8= 2.6

total cc-win= 107.9
We are behind if we were racing (we could have guess as much from a Tagg range, but not horribly).

total win cc/total cc=107.9/236.4= .46

pot odds=(9.3/(9.3+11.8))=.44
(total win cc/total cc)

.46>.44 -> positive expected value (EV) with pot odds included if analysis is correct.

How do you calculate the gain in EV in terms of the pot after including pot odds?

chance: .44

On Avg scenario run 100 times
win percentage times 100 times : 46*11800=542800
If you lose, amount of chips you’ll lose if you lose: 54*-9300=-502200

542800+-502200=40600
Let’s divide back by 100 for the avg
40600/100=406

So our net gain on average if our analysis is incorrect is approximately 400, which is 4 antes or 2/3s the small blind were it alone. This number will help when assessing the fold versus future chance value

Tournament Survival: (win cc/total cc) = .46, so there’s a 46% chance you’ll a little more than double through and 54% chance of busting out.

Going all-in versus folding and moving in later: inflection point concerns.

It’s a little better than shoving with king crap and being called by A high. Though notably, next hand the BB will be unable to fold, so if you get a better than average hand, you may have the chance to retrieve some of the blinds.

Given the nature of the payout structure (top 2). I probably shove here.