Daily Hand Quiz

Let’s start by assigning a calling range to your opponent. You’re making a fairly large bet, and he won’t be getting the best odds to call. Additionally, he has a stack large enough to continue to play normally if he folds. That said, the blinds and antes are large, and your three bet is a little transparent, so he’s probably calling a little looser than you might think. I’d say he calls 66+ and AJ+.

So, first step – you’re a 70-30 dog to that range. When you win, you win 111k, and when you lose you lose 87k. So your net result for the play is (111,000 * .3) + (-87,000 * .7), for a net loss of 27.6k.

Second step – when you three bet and don’t get called, you win 24.2k. So, more or less, you need to have opponent fold about 54% of the time for this play to be profitable.

Whether or not he’s likely to do so is another question. Right now we have him calling with about 102 hand combinations, so he’d have to be opening with more than double that. If you think opponent is opening with any pair, KJ+ and QJs+ and A8+ or thereabouts, that gets you firmly in the proper range for this play (that’s right about 230 combinations).

What actually happened You three bet and your opponent called with AJ. You flopped top pair and a straight draw, but they turned a better pair and won the pot.

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Nice analysis but Isn’t cash more about long term profit, not tournaments? I understand three betting as a move and that it is more profitable to go for the win so maybe I am a donk for saying why even think about risking it all with nine high when our M is over 7 and we can wait for less risky spots.

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I don’t like the 3bet here. First, as your analysis shows, your marginally getting the right chip odds for the play. But you almost certainly aren’t getting the right tournament equity odds.

2nd: You analysis completely ignores the BB. I’d expect the BB to push with QQ+ and AK, although wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he called with TT/JJ and AQ.

Combine those two facets and this is a clear fold IMO

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the question is how often will hw fold, not whether you shoul shove or not :p
To answer IF we should shove or not, there might just not have enougth information for a good shove, for example, the payout structure (Am I ITM? How many players will get ITM?)

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“profitable” is a strange (and imo incorrect) choice of words when applied to a situation like this in a tournament. making risky moves that could end your tournament is never “profitable” since even if it works you still havent made any money. if you lose you are on the rail, if you win, you still havent made any money. therefore in a literal sense it can only be costly, not truly profitable. this quiz would have to be reassigned to a cash game situation to make any sense.

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Agree with City_Born, that skallywank of a player.
Applying cash game modes of profitability to a tourney make no sense, as game theory dictates, that it is more about survival than EV plays or what not.
Playing crap out of position against a bigger stack is a good way to bust yourself out of the money.
If roles are reversed, and you are playing in position, then you have a legit move to make.
BUt this just screams implosion. Because if you do get called, and get beat, you are then pretty close to insta shove.

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im a moron

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Not to really point out the obvious here.. but I’m pretty sure you’re already well into the money — the $100 rebuy on Stars is a relatively big tournament and you’re down to the last two tables; thus, no matter what you do here, you have in fact MADE profit in this tourney.. now you’re just playing to win and this isn’t a bad place to try something

89 will outrun a lot of hands and there aren’t too too many that dominate it — matter of fact I’d be more comfortable having him show me aces than show me something like 10s, simply because 10s and/or JJ are going to kick out some possible straight draws

Anyway, I still voted 25-45%, which according to the staff is a little conservative — hey I’m conservative woohoo

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