Daily Hand Quiz

What does he have? Let’s break it down into bigger pairs, smaller pairs, broadway cards and small cards / air.

Bigger pairs: doesn’t seem too likely. First, they’re hard to make, and second, this is a pretty big raise. Maybe a scared player makes this raise with KK, but I think most of the time people are looking to get a little more action with AA and KK. Of course, you could be getting leveled, but it seems pretty unlikely at this stage. Anyhow, 12 ways to make AA and KK.

Broadway cards: In a lower buy in tournament, you’ll see a lot of people make this play with AK-AJs hands. They want to defend their strong hand, but they don’t want to play a flop. Since you’ve been aggressive, maybe you see the occasional KQs showing up here. Let’s say about 45 combos here.

Smaller pairs: You could see JJ or maybe TT making this overbet, trying to take down the pot right here rather than play a tricky flop. A lot of the other smaller pairs will generally just call and try to flop a set, but maybe 77-99 get frisky here once in awhile. Let’s say about 15 combos.

As for air, maybe some smaller suited connectors pull this from time to time. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, but it happens.

Here’s my rough estimate: 65% of the time you’re up against broadway, 20% you’re up against a smaller pair, 10% a bigger pair, and 5% air.

Ok, so what should we do? The hand is far too strong to fold. If we make a small re-raise, say to 3x, we’re committing to the hand if he shoves, as we’ll get 2-1 on his shove and we’re basically a flip against JJ+ and AK. We also offer pretty good odds for a broadway hand to come along and set up an awkward situation when an overcard flops.

Both calling and shoving disguise the strength of our hand to some degree. Calling sets a trap for the smaller pairs in his range on ragged flops. Shoving somewhat accomplishes the same thing by making our hand look a bit more like AK and possibly motivating a call from a 77-type hand that believe they’re in a race with lots of chips added.

Since calling can create some awkward situations on the flop, and since there’s already 500 in the middle, I vote for shoving here. I know it feels weird to jam over 100BBs in PF in the first level, but I think it’s the play here. If it were KK or JJ, I’d probably lean toward calling.

What actually happened: You flatted and the flop came KJ2. The SB led and you folded.

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I voted for calling. If the flop came small cards, and if sb had a pair like 99 or TT, or maybe AK, I could win a big pot. I dont like shoving. Theres no point in making it look like I have AK. Its early in the tournament and it would be stupid of sb to gamble against AK with say a mid pair, hoping that his read is correct. I dont think I would get called with anything I can beat, except maybe AK if sb is fishy enough to do that and even then it would be a coin flip.

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I voted shove as you can’t fold queens here but you can’t just call a massive overbet either when any A or K flopping means you will have to fold to a c’bet. Also there is the issue if the caller behind who would be getting over 2.5 to 1 for just over 10% of their stack. Shove now and you pick up the sizable pot of 500 and if you run into an overpair well you would have run into it anyway if you call and flop comes unders.

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I’m with Richard P. You can’t fold queens and if he has an overpair he has it before as after the flop. So I shove and try to scare away AK.

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I dont really get the answers this far, not the staffs comments. But off course I am a total nit.

As I see it, there a two reasanoble things to do now: Either fold or call.

Staff argues that high pairs are unlikely, not only because they are hard to get, but also because of the betsizing. Say what? Avg stack is 150BB, wouldnt you raise big with AA or KK? I know I would.

It is also suggested that villain could be making a play with speculative hands, but why OOP in the first level? Most players play nittish in the first levels, playing 99-JJ for setvalue, so readless I wouldnt count too much on villain holding this. And for air: Who makes a resteal 150BB deep to pick up a pot of like 1/20 of his stack?

@Richard P
You shove because you cant fold? I say I fold because I cant shove, as I dont want to stack off 150BB with QQ in a high buy in tour vs unknown villain.

Personally I could muck this hand readless with only 2% of my stack in there. Otherwise a call is reasonable. Sure an overcard hits 1/3 of the time, but at least someone migth overplay JJ the rare times villain is that loose, and you will probably catch a c-bet from AK. Naturally you stack off whenever villain has the overpair, so no play is perfect. 4-betting preflop is basically allowing villain to make no mistakes.

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I can’t fold QQ to a 3 bet no matter how big. It’s a fair point about catching a cbet from AK, but 4 betting does make it a mistake to call with that hand.

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In a tournament you are waiting for a chance to shove with this hand after a reraise. Standard operating procedure.

In a cash game it’s a little trickier. The problem is not that the odds are way against the villain having aces or kings, but that when you shove and get called you are screwed (unless playing for tiny stakes like $25 max or below).

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Easy call in position in a cash game.

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Villain could easily have AA or KK. Im not saying they do, but really, when is a more likely senario then this? Some chips in the pot, out of position against 2 players who have shown strength…of course youd reraise to isolate and get more chips in there. He could also have AK or TT+ but do we really want to be the donk shoving a massive amount of chips in preflop this early regardless? No. Weve had success running over the table so far, we can use skill, not jam-the-chips-in brute force in scary situations, and win chips. Call, see how it flops, read the situation, and play from there.

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Shoving at this point seems like an amateur move, but it actually has a positive expectation. Let’s use the staff numbers to prove a point.

5% you’re facing air. No call on your all-in, you win 500.

65% you’re facing broadway. But would you call an all-in bet with AQ, AJ or KQ? Probably not. That accounts for roughly 50% of possible hands you’re facing, so 50% of the time, you win 500 with a shove. Let’s say (for simplicity’s sake) AK always calls here, and you’re in a race. 7.5% you lose 2,910, 7.5% you win 2910. Those cancel out, so we’ll ignore them in the end.

20% against a smaller pair. But do smaller pairs call here? I would imagine not, but you can’t eliminate that possibility. Let’s say 10% of smaller pairs call you (2% of all hands total). You’re 4-1 to win there, so 1.6% you win 3410, .4 % you lose 2910.

10% against a bigger pair, and bigger pair will always call your all-in. So 8% you lose 2910, and 2% you win 3410.

Do the math. You win 500 63% of the time, you win 3410 nearly 13%, and lose 2910 16%.

So: (500 x .65) + (3410 x .13) + (-2910 x .16) = 302.70

On average, a shove nets you 302.70. Now, I’m not saying a shove is the right play, just that it’s a positive play. Depending on your skill and table conditions, it could very well be more profitable to call and work the flop (which would actually be my first inclination). But a shove isn’t a money loser.

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FOLD!!!

It’s QQ. You are ahead 100% of the time, and you are losing 100% of the time. This is an insta fold.

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Trouble with this situation is your really not going to know where you stand unless you shove, and then you either get an instant call from KK, AA or a call from AK that could annoyingly beat you. Who is going to call your Shove with JJ down and AJ down?

If you call and no A or K comes you feel a little better. But the play could go down to the river and if the villain is playing with a lower pair by the river you could be walking into trips. Rather than risk your whole stack, call now, and bet 900 on the flop. If your beat your know about it fast and you save 2000 chips, if he folds it was probably AK afterall or a low PP, if he flat calls your back in the guessing game. Not a great hand to try and play with any surety. Fold is not bad, but shove just looks reckless here.

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Staff – really like the calcs on number of ways to make hands … very useful. I’m in the minority and voted to fold. The large rr tells me the v has a hand. If I call / raise also have to worry about the player behind. I believe an overcard will flop ~1/3 of the time, then what? QQ looks good, but I’d rather not commit ~11% of stack in this multi-player sitch.

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good quiz

for me is a call… knowing that the villain will c-bet whatever comes, unless he hits nuts or closer. It is a too big preflop raise to give credit for a monster.
If no overcards come in the flop, i’d probably shove to his c-bet, but in the actual flop situation, it would depend on the reading and amount of the c-bet…to fold or not.

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i like Rhycar’s breakdown but id probably just call and evaluate the flop.. and whoever said i put him on a hand, so i folded is a bad player.. since when were queens a bad hand??

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Shove.

Given our image it is indeed unlikely that SB would choose to overbet AA/KK like that. To me this looks very much like JJ/TT/99/88 type of hand that is making a stand, or maybe AK. If it is indeed a medium pair calling is not going to make us much money, as out of position those hands are playing for set and folding otherwise. AK may cbet on a dry board but that’s about it.

If you’re up against overpair and no overs flop they money is likely to go in anyway, so why not shove now. If it is a AA/KK then tough luck, take another tourney.

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Although moving in here might be +ev, it might not be the optimal play. I would say it depends on if you believe you have an edge over the field, and if so, how much of an edge.

Either way I’m playing the hand…. If I don’t believe I have a significant edge over the field or might be outplayed, I would want to play big pots in every spot I believe is +ev. If I believe I can outplay my opponents after the flop, there’s not much value in commiting all of my chips this early in the tournament. I would call and decide how to proceed based on the texture of the flop and how my opponent plays his hand.

After this call we’re still deep (115BB) so we are not commited to the hand, plus you have position on the raiser. I would be very comfortable in this situation

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I call.
1) early stages
2) If he’s going to reraise with a 6-bet, does he really want action?
I feel like no most of the time, probably small-medium pair wanting to pick up the pot and not see a flop.

If that’s truly what he has, we are far ahead, but I think a reraise at this point would scare our 80% wins off the hook and court the AA and KK, so I just call here, hoping he bets the flop again.

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I’m not a big fan of a shove as obv. you only gonna get called by AA or KK. I also don’t like flat calling and possibly letting in a 2nd opponent and risk flopping overcards or trips. I’d want to limit the action to 1 opponent and try and get him to commit to the pot. Even if you factor in AA and KK in a range of possible hands you are still a 2 to 1 favorite going in against 1 opponent. Also note it is a shootout tourney which usually means you have to win your table and requires more aggressive play. Donkeyherder

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fold sounds good to me. I like to preserve my chips early in the tournament knowing that better opportunities will arise when the stakes and blinds count.
For this guy to raise 18x the big blind, id be more comfortable having AA’s in the hole.
I consider any pots you win early in the tournament irrelevant simply due to the small blind structure.

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whats wrong with flat call he bets flop reraise and see what happens, that way you know he could be just seeing if his JJ is still good (this assumes his C-bet is in the 1/2 range) or even smooth call and if barrels again re-raise / fold). I am a rookie no concept of math just infromation betting still have lots of BB left. And I can live with being dealt qq and sb kk/AA i think I am to l;ose some money here given the cooler

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