Archive Pick: Missed flop in position on bubble, no limit tournament

What we said then: It’s pretty tough to not shove here, but I think there are at least a couple of arguments to consider for checking.

First, it seems like your opponent, assuming they’re aware of the bubble, would be far more likely to lead with air and check strong hands. The fact that they checked in this situation and didn’t apply pressure to you strongly suggests that they have some kind of hand.

Second, when you think about their flatting range preflop out of the SB, it is probably comprised of small pairs and a handful of broadway combos. This flop doesn’t do you any favors against that range. You’re unlikely to get most pairs to fold on this ragged flop, and a lot of the broadway combos pair the king.

Third, you just might be able to show this hand down against the part of his range that you’re still beating, and you have a handful of outs to improve against the rest of his likely range.

If you have to give up this hand on the turn or river, you’ll be in desperate shape, but even after the blinds pass you still have enough chips to make the players to your immediate left think twice before calling with any two.

If you had two overs, or a backdoor draw, or something that gave you a little more equity in this pot, I’d insta-shove, but I think you can make a case for checking behind here.

What actually happened: You shoved and the SB called and showed you a set of sevens.

I’m the short stack, my m is under 6 and i make a slightly discounted raise which is over 30% of my stack under the gun with A 10. Could i have made it any harder for myself?! If i get called, which is likely as I am laying the bb close to 2.5 to 1, and miss, which is likely, then I have put myself in a real bad spot. I would have shoved pre flop as the blinds are well over 17% of my stack. As it is I would check fold this down.

stupid raise pre flop puts us in this spot. agree with the staff. check it back at him and see a free card.

I’m with the previous two comments … since I’m in, I’d check a flop that shows a K … get out of Dodge and wait for a better spot … you’ll have position soon.

Hard to say it better. Before the hand, you have just under $5,200 (M of 5.7 or so). THE ONLY HANDS you would want to make a 3x raise like that with are Aces or Kings, and maybe not even then. I personally would have just shoved all-in or folded UTG. You can’t make a standard raise with an M of less than 6, because you’re pot committing yourself instantly.

Well, hero was a donkey, so is there anything he can do to bail himself out? Well, another small raise is simply foolish. Villain’s range definitely includes small-to-medium pairs and a lot of kings, so I think shoving all-in and laying better than 3-to-1 odds is also silly. Check and fold to a bet on fourth street. You are almost certainly beat right now.

Check it down as long as you can, youve got crap and would LOVE a chance to improve. If youve got him beat right now he might even want to check it down himself considering that means his hand is garbage and hes looking to get lucky.

bet to : FOWYS

I can’t even vote in such an idiotic circumstance.

Who the hell is raising PF with a stack this small? The entire question is completely void.

shove