
AK on satty bubble, no limit holdem

Game type: $36 Satellite to Sunday Million
Stage of tourney: Bubble
Your image: TAG
Opponent’s image: Aggressive
Your hand: A♣K♦
The setup: You’re on the bubble in this satellite - lose one more player and everyone gets an entry to the Sunday Million. UTG has been fairly active and you’re been pretty taggish, showing down strong.
UTG raises to 3x and the table folds to you in the BB. You have about 6900 behind after posting the 800 BB. What’s your play?
8.7.08 / 1am
The most easy fold ever.
Fold everything, including Aces.
8.7.08 / 1am
I fold because of the stack sizes. I don’t have fold equity because he would call with anything reasonable and I’m probably not more than 60-40 favourite. I can wait for a better spot.
8.7.08 / 1am
Fold. Easiest DHQ Quiz I’ve seen.
Players C, SB and even D need to make a move before you. Player C will need to make the move first, and the other 2 will play nothing except monsters until he does so. If player C is lucky, then it is SB’s turn, then player D’s. During this you have a huge chance of winning through, as well as time to wait for hands so why would you play AK here?
Also, unless the big stack is a complete lunatic he has a good hand here - because he has no reason to play with his big stack. And even if he is a lunatic you might as well let him get on with it and take the shorter stacks out anyway.
8.7.08 / 2am
After you fold your ak what happens if both the short stacks get walks when on their bb, and now you’re in the bb again? You’ll be pissed for throwing away a huge hand that’s what. By calling a standard raise your stack will still be bigger than the two short stacks even after the small blind and if an a or k comes you’ve just won your seat. I’d rather be in control of my place than hoping others will get knocked out before me.
8.7.08 / 2am
I actually mis read the question again.
I wouldnt fold AA or maybe KK but everything else is a fold. You have 3k more than the short stacks so can wait at least another round before you have to start thinking about playing again.
Its unlikely that both shorties would get walks.
8.7.08 / 5am
i think when you consider the stack sizes this is straight forward.
We can’t call, if we miss and have to fold to his c bet then we are in the same boat as the two shorter stacks at the table. It also means if one of them pushes into to us in the later rounds we will just have them covered so any decision is for our tourney life.
We can’t shove and get a fold, so we are at best up against a weak A, flipping or 60:40. I am not sure given our middle sized stack that we want to take the chance.
I AA and KK are straight forward pushes - i don’t think you can fold those. I suppose QQ would be hard to fold on the table and i am not sure that folding, calling or pushing is a bad option with QQ.
8.7.08 / 7am
Easy fold, one player will definitely get knocked before you. AK is a good starting hand, but its just two high cards that miss the flop most of the time. Pushing would be your only realistic option if you didnt want to fold, but you have no fold vig and and when you get called, youre risking being the one on the bubble for no reason. Even if youre ahead, how ahead could you be? at most 75/25. Why even take a 25% chance of getting knocked.
8.7.08 / 7am
easy fold
you have 3k more than the short stack, and 2.5k more than the second short stack.
why risk your seat
8.7.08 / 8am
Fold fold fold fold fold. In fact, until you are the short stack, fold everything short of aces and kings. If there’s no prize for the winner, you should just play for your seat and go away. Easy fold.
8.7.08 / 9am
I think that fold and call are correct here, and I voted call, as the situation doesn’t get too much worse if we miss, as the 2 minor stacks are in a very difficult possition right now, but in case of hit the flop is very likely we are ahead and we can really ensure that seat.
besides if the raiser have AA KK I would expect a minor raise to try to get a short stack shoving for salvation.
8.7.08 / 10am
It was not clear from the setup that this was the only table remaining. That might affect things.
Anyway, fold it. You can survive longer than others, so you’ll get a seat. But if one of the other short stacks doubles up, you’ll wish you had that AK back.
8.7.08 / 10am
You are all crazy. I’m at least calling if not all in here.
8.7.08 / 12pm
Instant fold AK, but I would also push QQ in addition to AA and KK, fold everything else. It would be extremely unlikely that both short stacks would get walks, but it is quite conceivable that they will push and hold up and then our stack isn’t that impressive any more - hence the push with QQ.
8.7.08 / 2pm
This is definately a fold. What mr “All In” seems to forget is that winning more chips does not get us anywhere we are not allready, that is with a reasonable stack on the bubble.
But what range to shove here depends on the number of tables remaining. If there are more tables with more shortstacks, I migth even fold AA here.
This appearently being the final table, I reckon that the 12%-23% risk of bubbling with AA would be smaller than the risk of two shorter stacks both dobling.
But even KK would be reasonable to fold here. They loose to an A 30% of the time.
8.7.08 / 3pm
A real interesting discussion but for me it still aint clear cut. Is a current m of 4 and a half really a reasonable stack big enough to wait it out? IMO only a and b can cruise through with the four remaining being short. I choose to actively gamble my ak will hit, not passively gamble that the two super short stacks will get knocked out and not double up, but for sure there is a well argued case for the fold.
8.7.08 / 4pm
Easy, easy fold. Key reasons:
1. Everyone tightens up near the bubble. This means that the probability that UTG raised without a large, made hand is remote. Could even be on Aces or Kings, which would be really bad.
2. Even if UTG doesn’t have AA or KK, then you’re probably up against a made hand, which is a coin flip with you as the underdog. Why take this risk on the bubble with a chip lead over two others at the table?
3. While it is true that you will double up if you raise and UTG calls and you win, the fact remains that you won’t knock UTG out of the tournament. This caps the upside of this move for you, even if you think that “a chance to knock someone out” is an important factor in this decision.
4. You lose and you’re out of the tournament; UTG has you covered.
5. One side issue: even if you win, you risk losing some table respect and fold-equity on the final table. Nobody’s going to respect this raise later on.
8.7.08 / 6pm
Richard P(ryor) is obviously a comedian. Go back to making jokes or being dead. You obviously have no concept of what today’s quiz is all about.
8.7.08 / 10pm
i would shove it cause the guy utg with a chip lead is gonna make that play with a10 or even aj to try take the pot down pre flop so i would say it would be a 60 40 shot and i would take the risk. no balls no glory haah
8.8.08 / 4am
I was not advocating for the shove, I just think that not even seeing a flop for two more big blinds with a top five starting hand is weak. I get it’s a satty bubble, hence the name of the quiz. I want to guarantee my place through being active, not passive. All about choice and perceptions of risk. Surely the fold logic should also be applied to player a even with aces then? If not then you cannot argue that playing is incorrect.
9.1.08 / 11am
I fold.
After reading responses, same as staff.


8.6.08 / 1pm
I’m folding for two reasons:
1) You can’t count on fold vig. You can only raise to about 5k more which UTG can call off and still have a healthy stack if he loses.
2) It’s 1500 a round and you’ve got a two round lead on one player and a one round lead on another after posting the blinds.
I’d ship with AA and KK and probably fold QQ here as well.
What actually happened: You folded.