
Game type: $150 NL tournament on Full Tilt Poker
Stage of tourney: Early
Your image: Aggressive
Opponent’s image: A little loose
Your hand: 9♦9♣
The setup: You’ve been playing aggressive poker but have been unable to get a hand to hold up. This hand you get 99 UTG +3 and you open for 140. The table folds to the SB, who calls. He seems to be cold calling PF raises pretty light. The flop comes:
7♥K♣K♦
The SB checks and you bet 230 into 320. The SB check raises you all in for 1205.
What’s your play?
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Let’s say the SB will call your PF raise with pairs 33 – TT, A8 – AJ, and KT – KQ (I assume he’ll usually re-raise with JJ+ and AQo+). If he shoves that entire range, you’re about a 60-40 favorite.
So, how much of that range is he shoving? It’s hard for him to give you credit for a king, and your stack is such that he probably figured he had some fold vig.
I think a conservative estimate is 77+, AT+ and all king hands. Against that range, you’re a 55-45 dog, a difference easily eclipsed by the price you’re getting.
What actually happened: You called and the SB showed KQ; he held up to win the pot.
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hard to put him on a king but his calling range seems to include any KQ KJ KT combo. Its early and you still have 40+ BBs. I fold.
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Fold,for me. put him on week king, K10 etc.
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Weak king ? The bare minimum he would be calling a raise OOP here is KJ suited, and I probably wouldn’t even do it.
So really, its either KJ/KQ, not AK, because he obviously would reraise here, 90 % of the time.
Other noteables 44 – JJ ( with JJ being the less likely)
cant really say pocket 7 either.
Ace-X ( A9-AT-AJ is a possibility, he knows you can’t call unless you have a decent pair )
This is also a very good spot to make a move to take down an obvious C-bet on a board the raiser probably didn’t touch, with a nice check raise, so i give about 15 to 20 % chance for the bluff.
that leaves only a couple of hands, and you beat about 50-60 % of them.
I normally wouldn’t fold 99 in this situation, but there sure is better spots to get money.
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@JoTigidou
It is not that relevant whether calling with a weak king would have been a reasonable play for villain. We are told that he just looooves to call raises preflop, so he migth even show up K8s or the like.
I think this is kind of close, but I still fold with these stacks. If stacks were different, and it was later in the game, I migth call.
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I opted for calling because I felt he wouldnt check-raise trips against aggressive opponent when there is no draws, you would think he would call and hope opponent catches something on turn or continues to bluff. But then again him calling that much of his stack OOP without moving in would be kind of alarming too, so maybe check-raise all-in would be just as likely with trips as with other hands in his range, after all. Hmmm…
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I say the cards are not the main argument for the correct play here. First he might have KQ, KJ, KT, JJ, TT, which he probably do; and I understand the staff opinion, which is valid, but i still have 31M and dont really need to bet over half my stack on a coin flip (at best) just yet. Then, since he is a loose player, he might indeed have a medium king, there are no real draws there and i cant see him reraiseing with a worst hand most of the time.
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I voted call. Your image is aggressive, his is loose, that opens up his range a lot. His stack is less then the pot, he could easily be pushing with just about any hand in his preflop calling range figuring you likely dont have a king. His range includes a king, but thats only a small part of a range which is made up of mostly 2 high cards, and any small/ medium pair. A big pair probably puts it in preflop unless its AA (maybe he gets cute) Against his overall range, I think its worth a call more often then not here.
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Hmm…misread the graphic. His all in is included in the pot size. That makes it less of an obvious call, but still one I probably make. I just feel like too much of his range is a smaller pocket pair or 2 high cards.
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No way you call here. You’re obviously beaten. You’ve got plenty of time.
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Fold.
His range for this reraise is 77-JJ, K10-KQ (would have RRed with AK), bluff for a loose player
You lose to
77, 1010, JJ
K10, KJ, KQ
You beat
88, bluff
you tie
99
Unless he’s on a pure bluff, which is doubtful, your raise told you where you are at in this hand, done. Muck it and find a better spot.
One might ask, “If he really had trips, wouldn’t he slow play them? It’s a dry board, no flush draws or straight draws, and we’re an aggressive player, so what’s the rush? Why risk letting the fish off the hook with a giant reraise?”
Response:
What’s he’s supposed to think you’ll put him on if he check-calls a 3/5 pot bet? It’s too high for a probe bet, there are no flush draws, no straight draws, he flat called 3.5xBB pf and there’s KK on the board. What are you supposed to put him on if he check-calls here?
Check-Fold? Not with trips.
Lead? Why?
Would have served to win the pot probably on the turn by leading the flop then leading the turn, but he wants our chips, not our suspicion
And the pot is still smallish, you might give up. If he has trips, he wants to stack you, which requires a bigger pot.
Check-Raise
Checking to an aggressive opponent will probably elicit at the minimum a continuation bet.
How much?
Min check-raise?
2.5x check raise? It’s the standard check-raise, but then the pot is and his stack is 700 with a pot of 1100. This is a major tell as to where the hand is going with 2 streets left to bet.
CR all-in. It’s overbetting the pot by around 2.2 times, but this gets the money in, and can be viewed as an overbet (but really the least threatening bet he can make).
It’s easier to just get our money in now. We raised preflop, we bet on the flop, we’ve announced we have something, and he believes us. And he believes we’ll pay. From the description, it sounds like we might be a little on tilt. It’s easier to get people to pay with Aces on the flop than on the turn or river.
Why not let the aggressive opponent grind himself away? Maybe you have a betting pattern tell? Betting the flop but not the turn with a made hand. A check behind on the turn would kill the value on his hand, and the river bet would have to be scaled down. Maybe he thinks he can stack you right now?
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Easy fold.
I mean, granted, it’s a fucking horrendous play with KQ (especially against an aggressive opponent), but do you really think he’s making this push with A high or anything we can beat? If he is, you’ll get his chips anyway.
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I would fold get out cheap while u can.
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deprave beefing buddy spited?replicate antidotes abjectness impulsion?
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Being so early in the tournament, I wouldnt risk it unless i had the absolute nuts.
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