Straight draw versus a raise, no limit cash

This seems like a feeler raise to me. It’s a dry board - if you’re the button and you have a set, why are you in a hurry to move out the BB or the active PF raiser who could be betting with a wide range of hands?

I’d imagine the button has a pretty broad range that includes some kings, some medium pocket pairs, and maybe even some small pairs with an ace or backdoor draw.

All of those hands are beating you now, so taking down the pot is a win. Plus, his range is so weak that if you call and hit, you’re not likely to make much for your trouble. Finally, if you are up against a set or two pair, you’re still only a 70-30 dog and can’t ever really be wrong to call a shove once you raise (unless you just min raise).

I like a raise to about 3x or so here.

What actually happened: You raised to $1140 and the button shoved for 2671 total. You called and made your straight on the turn, the button showed 65 for two pair.

I dont think its a feeler raise, I think its an ‘Ive got a hand I want to protect’ raise.

Doesnt look to me like hes folding anytime soon, as he liked his hand enough to raise a multi-way pot that we led into. If thats the case, hes gonna be at least calling the raise so as the staff says we are most likely a 70-30 dog. No need to get too much in now.

I would probably call and play from the turn.

I am with 5types on this one.

I dont think that a TAG player calls a UTG raise from an agressive player with a medium kicker king. Rather play hands where you know where he is at, or 3-bet preflop. Off course he migth have a medium pair and be trying to find out where he is at, but wouldnt he 3-bet or solely setmine most of his medium pairs?

Villain either has a very marginal hand or a monster, and think the monster is most likely.

Very important is imo villains idea of heros range. Even if hero raises SC form UTG FR often, which I as a small stakes fish dont understand, he can so much more easily put you on AK/KQ/AA or the like if you flatcall, than he can put you on a draw on that dry a flop.

A well diguised draw on a safe looking flop, against a player who is likely to have a great hand he is not going to lay down, that looks like a spot where you like to hit before stacking off.

I actually voted fold. the odds that I would get a
straight is 36 percent. thats 18 % that i would get it on the turn…The pot ratio to your call is 1 to 3 and the odds that you would get for getting on the turn is more than 1 to 5. and knowing your opponent, he would probably bet on the turn with a set or with nothing,,, even with nothing he has you beat bec after all you only have 7 8… so I would opt to fold.

@ J

Sry, but I cant really make sense of your reasoning.

First of all, I believe that you are overestimating the odds. The numbers you mention are the aprroximate chances of hitting flush. A straigth had sligthly lover odds. Anyway, 16% or 18% to hit turn, no big difference.

Secondly, you argue that you will not call because you dont have direct odds to hit on turn, and that you feel 100% sure villain will bet turn so you dont see river. But if villains really does bet all turns, you will have implied odds as long as he bets just as little as half pot. And every time you hit and he doesnt fold to a CRAI on turn it is pure +EV.
Draws are played for implied odds or fold equity, seldomly for direct odds.

Raising the draw can make sense, though I prefer the call. But folding a draw this well disguised with these implied odds must be the worst option.

Calling is a weak play, but Im thinking he hit the king and probably isnt going away, so Im making the weak play and calling. Hope I get lucky, check fold to a big bet on the turn if I miss. Check call if I hit the turn, then check raise the river. Hopefully my aggressive preflop image and soft play here can induce AK or KQ to overplay when a “blank” like a 9 hits the turn and I check, maximizing as much as possible the implied odds that go with a weak check call on the flop. Raising seems spewy and with these stacks I just dont want to fold for 200 into an 800 dollar pot with potential to make a big hand on turn or river.

Call is the only option. A big raise gets called or raised by hands that have us down. Being aggressive here is foolish. Call and play the turn.

A raise is ridiculous. The only reason for a raise is to push him off the pot, but there are so many hands that call or even re-raise. Raising with a set here is not a bad play by the villain, if he thinks our aggressiveness is going to get a call or reraise if we hit a K. Given that he tends toward TAG, I’m thinking he hit his K. At this point, there’s little differnce in percentages whether we are down to top pair or set anyway.

A fold is weak. We have a strong drawing hand and the cost isn’t much relative to our potential return. If he made a set or even top pair and I hit my straight, I might get a tremendous payday.

As played, just plain gambling and nothing more than pure luck.

i like the repop, whether he is tag or lag, this is a great flop for him to repop you with here, its a very dry board. Most players that call in position with hands like 56, have the intention of trying to take it away post flop even if they didn’t hit, esp. vs someone who has been raising a lot, i like the 3x or so and try to take it down now, if not we can still win. he could also be folding some kings, knowing that you are a good player and aren’t going to 3 bet there without at least a good draw, or a strong made hand.

He’s not check-raising with AK or KQ here, because there’s essentially no holding we could call with that he can beat…and it’s just far too strong of a move with those holdings. So it’s either two pair, set or bluff.

Given my image, I can expect a bluff here, since a set or two-pair would most likely be playing this slower to reel me in.

I’d put him on a set 30% of the time and two pair about 15% (since i wouldn’t anticipate a call with K5, K6 or 65 preflop), the other 55% i’d expect a bluff.

A set or two pair has 0% fold equity, a bluff has 100% FE (obviously). It’s close, but I think I’m taking the 55% and shoving, since the 45% of the time I’m wrong I’m going to win 32% of the time anyway.

I call here obv. for your stack and the amount he raised, you can gamble to hit your open ender. and hes raising showing stregnth. most likely if you hit ur bingo straight here, it wont improve his hand, and he wont beat a straight. if u hit it u check, he will bet into you bc he raised the flop and thinks he can either buy it now or he feels ur slowplaying a worse hand then him.

I would call to see the Turn and check with a not made hand to him and await his action. If he bets,most likely he will, above 1/3 of the pot I fold and go to the next hand.
If he bets <1/3 pot and we both have about full pot in front I would call if the turn does not give a paired board. I also would take his bet seriously and will not try to crai hin on turn with a semi-bluff because i think he knows i am capable of this since i played as described in the example and he will only call my crai with a tptk+ of which he indicated he posesses by raising on the flop.

Danny
www.pokerbrains.net

Oh, one more thing. I would not have played the hand in the first place to avoid such situations as described Time and time again I see people losing their chips on NL beacsue theu think this is the way to play it.

AHHHHEMMM!

Excuse me, but would anyone really play this in a N/L game? If you do, you have to call that price just to see if your prayers are answered or not! Do Not! I repeat, DO NOT Raise!!! Or else say Good Bye to your stack!
The size of his raise indicates a lure. He has a kicker and isn’t afraid to show it! Not a blow out, that would be a much bigger bet, or perhaps a non-kicker move, but a med size investment raise….definitely a lure.

that is an easy fold