Daily Hand Quiz

With a big draw like this on the flop and anywhere from three to ten times the pot left to play, my goal is almost always to let other players put a bit more money into the pot before I raise all in. These spots tend to be very profitable since a big draw has a very good chance to beat even a set if I do get called. Moving all in with a combo draw on the flop is the archetypal no limit hold’em semibluff.

So, am I more likely to set off a chain of events that ends with me shoving by betting or by checking? In this case checking is best. If I lead out for anything more than half pot, a raise will probably be to $200 or more and I will very rarely get a fold when I shove. There is also the somewhat shorter stacked player who might just shove over my lead. Finally, I might get called in one or more places which would probably be bad news, especially if my opponents will fold one pair hands if a club comes on the turn but play them hard if the turn blanks. If I check, there is a good chance that there will be a bet and one or more calls and I can make exactly the sort of shove I’m hoping to make.

What happened:

I checked, the preflop raiser checked, the first caller bet $18, the next raised to $96, the next called, and the action came back to me. I moved all in for $591. It folded back around to the cut-off and he called with a set of sevens. At this point I was about 35% to win and the pot was $1386. My equity in the pot was .35 * $1386 = $485, a loss of about $100 relative to folding.

However, I was shoving into a pot of $300, so my semibluff would show a profit if I took it down just over a quarter of the time and was called by a set the remaining three quarters of the time. Of course, sometimes I’ll be called by hands other than a set. I’m about 45% against AK or 76, 33% against an ace high flush draw, and, the worst case scenario, 18% against KcXc for top pair and a higher flush draw. I will average anywhere from 33% to 37% against a reasonable calling range from one opponent. I’m ignoring the situation where I get called by two opponents because it will happen very rarely and the math is a bit cumbersome. If I get it in against two sets or a set and two pair that is actually pretty good for me, but if I am up against a set and a higher flush draw I am in really bad shape.

If I expect that my bluff wins the pot a third of the time, then over three iterations of this situation my expectation is:

Called twice: lose 2 x 100 = 200

Take it down once: win 300

Net: +100

This hand illustrates why semibluffing with big draws on the flop is such a powerful play. If I bluff $600 into $300 on the river, my bluff has to succeed two thirds of the time to break even, but when I move in for the same amount on the flop with a big draw I can “fail” over two thirds of the time and still show a profit!

View a video of the hand here

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I also go for the check-raise.

In general there are few hands that I lead oop when I am not the preflop aggressor, so in that way this seems better.

So I check with the intention to raise, but depending on the action I could reconsider that. Anyway, with the action given the all in seems like a good bet-sizing.

[Reply]

Definitely check-raise all-in. You can fold everone else out or you can hit and win.

Cant really do better than the explanation above, but you have two ways to win (hopefully youre not against a guy with Kc Xc) so get it in.

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check raise all the life

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I don’t know where you found this Isaac guy but I like him. Best quiz in a long time and EXCELLENT analysis. More from him please.

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As usual, I disagree with OPI.

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CityBorn is a hater yo!

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The turn: 8d
The river: 8s

You: Straight.
Villain: Book.

AHAHAHA

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