Archive pick: Overpair versus a minimum raise, final table bubble of the Sunday Million

This quiz is from our archives and originally ran on 2/18/08. View the original quiz, poll and comments. What we said then…

This is one of those spots that just makes me hate poker, pure and simple. The tight player calling the UTG raise from the BB suggests a fairly strong hand - probably pairs and big suited cards. The minimum check raise (which commits him to call with any reasonable draw) of the strong bet on a draw-heavy board (giving you great direct and implied odds should you have a draw) screams a monster hand. In short, it’s hard to imagine any realistic scenarios where this overpair is ahead, and there’s not many ways kings can improve here if they are behind.

If you bail now, you’ll still have a playable stack and a shot at a decent money jump when the tournament breaks to the final table.

Facing a tight opponent at this specific juncture of the tournament, I think you can make a pretty good case for folding here.

What actually happened: pawelmaj re-raised all in and Gnuhunter called, showing a set of twos, which held up to win the pot.

Yes, very sticky. With this type of player, at this sstage of the tournament, he has a set, 2 pair or j10 of spades.

Fold, and mutter obscenities under your breath.

The day I’ll be able to fold kings in this spot I’ll be ready to beat anybody in the world! He may have many hands

- AQ and trying to figure out if Top Pair Top Kicker is good or you have an overpair
- JTo and semibluffing
- Two spades and semibluffing
- AA, QQ, 99 or 22 and we are dead.

He is tight but he knows he’s tight and he may be making a move with many hands knowing it’s bubble time. If we have to fold it’s better now than late. If we want to commit to this hand it’s better to call and induce a subsequent call from AQ/KQ or shoving with more favourable odds if a spade doesn’t come on the turn. If a spade comes I’m done with the hand because to many hands now beat me.

same thing (just about) happened to me in the 200seat WSOP tourney last sunday.

QQ in the BB, SB completes, I raise 5x, SB calls, flop comes T4T, I check, he bets Pot, I think…. and fold.

Drats.

I am waay to tight, so I fold here, probably. I think i SHOULD be shoving first in most the time, tho, it seems - me having only ~13BB and all.

Ive busted out of tournaments exactly like this. Its one of those things….you think, you know you should fold, then you go all in and bust out. One day when Im a better player than I am now, I’ll be able to fold this.

Agree with the staff but can not fold KK yet… I’d have called with a plan to fold for further signs of extreme strength.
Reraise all-in against an ultratight player is not an option in this spot for me.

I fold this hand and for me, it’s not very close. If he got me to fold due to his table image, then I just got outplayed and lived to see another day. But if his table image holds, I don’t see a raise here with AQ or a draw. But that’s the challenge in playing with AA or KK. If the flop hits and you don’t make a set, you only have top pair. And, to me, overvaluing a top pair is one of the biggest mistakes that I see people make (myself included, but if I have enough time in a tourney with a guy to peg him as super tight, I’ll respect his table image).

On a side note, I’d be a little miffed by the 22 as I just never see this, but this is textbook low to middle pocket pair play.

I mean I never read 22.

I am not sure how over 60% of the people who responded voted Raise; yet all of the comments are people who would fold. Maybe everyone is afraid to go against the staff.

Either that or I dont know my head from a hole in the ground. If this hand came to me I would have barley waited before pushing in all my chips.

If I got busted here with KK that is the way it is. I raise, reraise and push over the top with this hand. You cannot always see ghosts in the shadows when playing large Pocket Pairs.

If you disagree with me then; when you put in the raise pre-flop what kind of flop where you hoping for?

Anyone who flat calls a raise out of the BB is usually a moron… Even very tight players can fold here… I probably want to wait a bit and find a better spot with my Kings… not a grea tboard to a flat call… this is a spot where someone has suited connectors… or even a low to maybe mid pair… all big face cards RR preflop here. In a deep stacked cash game i might disagree with how to play the hand.

320k in the pot preflop, I would have shoved all-in. If I only pick up the blinds and antes so what. If I get some donk calling me, I double up.

As played, there are only two options shove or fold. I voted shove because I have cajones.

hahahaha…folding KK here.

I wish the staff didn’t know the results prior to analyzing the hands. A fold here would be an absurd play and extremely negative equity. Absurd.

He’s making this same play with AQ, KQ, and possibly any FD. Push.

All those who commented fold are just being results oriented. Agree with Frank above, easy push

“[..] easy push.”

PREflop, tho, right?

i voted push .. but after reading staff and others comments it makes sence to fold . very tuff spot thow . a set didnt really come into my range .. im o the money was going in …. . .. . .. . .. .

Seems like an obvious set in this situation. Not the two’s tho.
The ultratight player isnt going to be calling you with JT. His range will likely be 99+ AQ+.
Given your aggressive image its very likely he would have smooth called preflop with a big pair to trap you.

Check raise means your likely up against AA, QQ, KK, 99, AK spades or AQ given his ultra tight image.
your behind to 3
drawing with 1
slight favourite to 1
big favourite to 1
So overall your significantly behind with little chance to improve.
Despite having more than 4 to 1 pot odds here you have to put your read first combined with your 11 to 1 chances against improving to a set of kings.
If your opponent is on a flush draw he has a much greater chance of improving than you do which kind of off sets your 11 to 1 odds even more so a fold is the best choice because you can still fight with your remaining stack. You do have enough chips left to call this bet and hopefully check down to the river if he was testing you with AQ, but if he bets again you would have to fold so again folding seems to be best.

thinking further we dont have 2 clean outs to make a set of kings because of course the King of spades may complete a flush draw for the opponent

My honest answer.
My image is fairly aggressive which is expected 6 handed. Even if i’m UTG 6 handed it doesn’t necessaly scream out strength. His call protecting his blind can be done with any kind of drawing hand, low PP, paint, A8+ etc. But this “ultra-tight” guy will narrow his range down subsantially. To ATs+, AJo+, 22+, QJs+, KQo+.
Now a check-raise min screams out DONK!! And personally this says weakness. He may want to buy the pot cheap if he thinks i will C bet. But that leads me to think why didnt he just bet out in the first place. I think he would lead with any kind of draw or TT/jj. When he checks i lead out to define. This check raise tells me he’s flopped a set or a high queen.
There are 9 combos of sets (33%), 6 combos of KQ (39%), and 12 combos of AQ (48%). Math tells us we need 2/1 to call, and he’s giving us just under 4/1. So i’m not folding. Because he is a ultra-tight player I call and re-evaluate on the turn. If a spade turns and he checks, i bet strong and look to take down the pot and if he bets i’m raising. If no spade hits and he checks, i check behind and if no spade hits and he bets then i will most probably fold. I’m now looking to bluff this ultra-tight guy off the pot. He ha’s the perfect stack for it, although i would like to have him covered.

PUSH IT. Plain and simple.

If you are beat, then you are beat. You aren’t getting away from someone flopping a set to smash your KK with the stacks this shallow. This is an idiotic question…PUSH.