Weakest flush facing a massive raise on turn, high stakes no limit

DailyHandQuiz

Game type: 200/400 NL Cash, Full Tilt Poker
Your image: Running well
Opponent’s image: A little tilty
Your hand: 3♠2♠

This hand took place between Whitelime and Present. You’ll be standing in for Present. Thanks to High Stakes Report for the hand history

The setup: This has been a seesaw battle on two tables and you’re up about 4 buy ins on your opponent total. You’ve been running pretty well and whitelime seems a little tilted, but he is a long-time regular at higher stakes.

This hand you’re dealt 32s. Whitelime raises 3x and you call. You flop a flush draw and a gutshot:

A♠5♥Q♠

You check, Whitelime bets $2000, you raise to $6800, Whitelime re-raises to $19200, you call.

You turn the flush with the T♠. You bet $16000, and Whitelime raises all-in to $63473.75. What’s your play?

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9 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

DHQ Staff

I’m sure this is a snap call for most people. Here’s a couple of facts that make me hesitate. One, your opponent is a thinking player who may appear hot but is more likely in control than not – and he’s aware that you probably perceive him as tilty. From that POV, he’s expecting a call of this bet, which indicates strength.

Two, he’s probably pretty sure you’re likely to have a flush. If you had a stronger hand or combo draw on a relatively wet board, it really seems like you would have gone ahead and put the money in (it’s a little surprising that the double draw didn’t shove the flop) when he made it 19k, especially since you’re out of position. The only hand that seems tempted to flat call the three-bet is a naked flush draw (or maybe pair flush), as the price on the call is a little better than 2-1.

Finally, your opponent is probably never drawing dead when you’re ahead (he probably has 20% equity on average) and when you’re behind, you’re dead.

That said, you’re still getting a great price and even good players lose their shit from time to time. Call.

What actually happened: Present called and Whitelime showed Ad5s for two pair and a flush draw. Present held up and won a 163k pot.

[Reply]

Sunshine

Voted call.. nobody’s voted fold yet so you already knew that..

Just wanted to say I laughed out loud when I got to the end of the staff’s analysis — 10 reasons to fold and then call because “even good players lose their shit from time to time”.. good stuff

[Reply]

Rafal

put him on top two, or maybe a set but with a flush draw on the turn- not folding my flush and hoping that he doesn’t boat up or make the flush.

Vindication!!

[Reply]

kaimano

I put him on AQ. I can’t fold a flush heads up…

[Reply]

Cristiano

Excelent analysis by staff.. still a snapcall.

[Reply]

IronFrog

The pre-flop flop play represents a strong hand and with the lead and re-raise he’s representing top minimum. The flush card comes and to him it’s all or nothing. It may be a scare card to you, and a good bluff card. So he shoves.
100% call

[Reply]

ngmcs8203

I figured if I was ahead he probably was drawing to a FH or better flush than mine. What do you know he was doing both!

And “Rachel” doesn’t like your site today?

[Reply]

markg

If you’d even consider folding, then why in the world were you playing that hand in the first place?

[Reply]

_CityBorn_

He’s betting you didnt just make a flush. Probably doesnt want to see a 4th spade, or some other disastrous miracle river…theres plenty in there for him to take down now. Easy call. If he happens to have the better flush, hey…what can you do, sometimes they have what is the less likely scenario. It’s heads up…and he played it so strong when the 3rd spade dropped, it would be really shocking if he had a flush.

[Reply]