Archive Pick: Value betting the river, no limit hold em cash

What we said then: I think value betting decisions like this are critical in no limit hold em, and while I’m sure that a lot of people will disagree, I think you can seriously consider a check behind here.

Your opponent either holds a weaker made hand, a stronger made hand, or a draw.

A stronger made hand seems unlikely, as a set would probably make a move on the turn or lead out the river.

A weaker made hand is pretty possible - I can see a medium pair with an ace kicker leading out the flop and then calling your raise, given your image. Again, I feel like this type of hand would have come back on the turn or led the river. It’s also possible that a weaker Q may have called the flop, although the turn call would be a little brave.

A draw is pretty possible - the flop had several open ended + the flush draw. The flush draw missed, but the OE got there, and while a check isn’t a standard play OOP with the nuts on the river, it’s certainly not uncommon.

I don’t think you’re getting called by a lot of weaker hands, but if you open up the betting again, you might have a hard time laying down to a large CR. While it may seem weak, and may be pretty marginal, I think a check behind is the way to go most of the time here. If your opponent is a little tilty or passive, that might tip it to a bet of about 1/3-1/2 pot.

What actually happened: You checked behind and your opponent showed KQ.

The opponent has not come till the river with nothing…I don’t think he’s on a draw (he’d not pay 40$ in a 54$ pot on the turn)…i put him on a medium strength made hand as a weak ace (AJ) or a good queen (KQ)…I bet 35-40$ in the 135$ pot…it’s a smallish bet but I don’t think it would induce a bluff…if he folds it’s ok…I won’t show my hand and it’s always a good thing…

Yeah.. repeating my turn bet.. fire $40 again — if nothing else, he’s going to be curious enough to pay it, even if he’s sitting on just something like second pair

I would probably seek for a bit of value since both the flush and straightdraws are minimal given the betting patterns, bet about 60-80 (just at, or above half the pot) to get some value if called, if youre beat you would probably end up calling a raise no matter what you put in yourself so better try to control the action yourself.

Agreed that river value betting is critical. If we play a garbage hand like 9-2 under the gun and fold when no flop hits us, we lose 1 BB for this “mistake”. If we’re ahead here and we fail to make a value bet that he’ll call (even 40), that’s a 20 BB “mistake”.

I think our hand is disguised by our limp, and therefore the villain thinks he’s ahead of much more than he actually is. Bet.

I bet half pot, as I assume a set or 89 would have bet at some point, and I hope he migth have som weak holding that calls.

To miss a value bet here would be a mistake, and therefore a loss of money. The only reasonable hands I could see the sb playing this way are KQ QJ, 89 or big diamond draw. I would have to rule out the diamond draw because the turn would have given him top pair and so he probably would have lead out to see if it was good. The only hand I would have to worry about at this point would be KJ of diamonds..which was a backdoor str8 and a flush draw. But honestly, I think with that kind of hand he would have reraised on the turn if he was any good, and definitely would have bet for value at the end hoping to get reraised. So I say bet around half the pot and watch him fold 80% of the time and 20% of the time get a call with QT etc..

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check it. the guys a tricky player and could have flopped a set or possibly made a str8 on the river and knows youll bet (considering youre labled a failry aggressive player). its common for a tricky player to try to trap in situations like this. The pot is already decent. check it and play it safe. what if the guy check raises you all in? u willing to put all your chips in with 2pr there?

I agree and I have 11 bracelets. I make love to myself

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You almost certainly have the best hand. Checking behind gets you no additional money. Value bet 1/3 to 1/2 pot and you’ll earn a bit more.

I think that actual players (amateurs, that is) are way looser than is commonly assumed. Especially online. Very rarely are you beat here.

i agree with chad

I think a the SB completes with all connectors and suited cards, especially with the 2 limps. His lead out on the flop could be protectiing a strong hand like top pair/set/two pair etc. but a draw would bet out into the fairly small pot to build it when he does hit, so 54/89 are all possiblities.

When an aggressive player raises me when i hold a set or two pair, with a flush draw on the board, i’m going to jam my chips in now rather than slow play it, bcoz he will call with TP. So i think the options are Ace-pair/TP/flush draw/54 or 89. I don’t think 58 completes unless its suited i which case he may of come over the top on the flop. So his range is fairly narrowed.

Then the turn bring our A. He checks and we give him bit over 2.5/1 on his money. His best draw being the flush is more the 4/1 to hit. So a tricky player like this knows his odds. So he calls. I think A7/AQ raises in this spot into an aggresive player and K7 folds, A6 may opt for the call along with one pair. So ‘this narrows his range to A6/KQ.

The river brings a T. i like that card for me and he checks. So my range is so narrowed I know i’m being him so I opt to bet $70. I get a call from KQ i think.