Combo draw, large pot, deep stacks, Sunday Million

The BB is either pretty strong or really goofy. It’s hard to put goofy on a range, so let’s go with really strong and assume he’s on AA or KK (you’d think QQ would raise a little more preflop to get HU).

In that case, this tiny bet is designed to get one of you to come over the top, so it basically can be treated as an all in for odds purposes, since you have no fold vig. You’re a slight favorite against KK and a slight dog to AA. You’re getting 1.5-1 to call an all in in this spot. Even if UTG is on another spade draw, you’re still 40% to win. Worst case - you’re up against a set of queens and you’re only 32%, but even if you’re facing that 1/3rd of the time, you’re still getting the price you need to play.

I wouldn’t get tricky - I’d just go ahead and shove it now.

What actually happened: 9mm minimum raised. The BB overshoved. UTG folded and 9mm called. BB showed KK. CO made a straight on the turn to win the hand.

Why shove here?
Ok BB has KK or AA but act he bet 50K into 400k. We know that if we shove he instantcall our push. And now we have 40%-55%. So Imho it’s better just to call and revaluate the turn.

Shove it.

Its a great spot and if you double up youre laughing. If they fold then thats obviously a result too.

I dont get it.

Why was it again we called a UTG opening with A4? Exactly how great are the implied odds 40BB deep?

Anyway: In a cash game, a spot like this is an easy shove. But in a tournament, with almost twice average stack, I am not sure this is the spot for me. Especially as the potodds by flatcalling are great. If there is an easy, riskfree option, where the +EV is doubtless and great, I pick that option rather than making a play that risks my stack on a smaller +EV move.

Risk 950 to win 2350 half the time ~ 25% +EV on the investment. Risk 50 chips to win 550 1/4 of the time ~ 175% +EV on the investment + your straigthdraw is conceiled and migth get implied odds + you protect your stack which will in no way be cripled by the call.

My first instinct was to push, but looking a bit closer I’m not so sure. If the BB had made a decent sized bet then that would definitely be the play, but I think there’s a lot to be said for just calling here, especially if you think your opponent will call a shove.

Assuming the BB will make a half pot or greater bet on the turn if a spade doesn’t come, he’ll take down the 550k pot 75% of the time, and you’ll lose your 50k extra investment. If you hit a non-spade 3 you should take down at least 850k, and a spade should give you at least the 550k.

In all you’ll be averaging 110k from this pot, which isn’t a great return compared to the 250k share you ought to bet getting out if you shoved now for a race. However I’ve been assuming the worst case scenario of these guys laying down as soon as we show any strength if we hit. In reality it’s very possible you’ll be able to stack the BB if you hit your straight, while a spade won’t necessarily kill the action, particularly if utg is drawing to a smaller flush (although this does make hitting less likely). Assuming you sometimes win considerably more than the 550/850 minimum, you could be averaging more like 150k.

While the shove is still a far better move for EV, this is a tournament and not all chips are worth the same. I think I’d rather have a chip stack averaging a bit under twice the average stack but definitely between 1.5 and 3x than only 50/50 on getting a 4x monster.

Having said that, if I was in this situation I would assume I had some fold equity, making it a fairly clear shove.

I’m a bit surprised at the way this has played out for the late stages of the sunday million. From the min raise preflop, to calling a three-bet with A4, to the pathetic lead out bet on the flop I really don’t like any of these plays. Can anyone explain why each or any of these are a good idea?

Seems to me UTG was hoping to stoke the pot and get some over-the-top plays. In other words, it’s the “new” slow play. Min raise is the new min bet. Sigh. Same principle, same problem. Give everyone and their brother proper odds to call, not to mention making calls of shoves a 1.5 to 1 affair.

Flat call. Builds the pot in case you hit; makes it easy to get out in case you don’t.

The UTG raiser is not the best player win the world min raising from UTG, I have his range fairly wide, and the BB I have a very detailed range.
The BB range is pretty much the same after his bet because he is C betting every flop. The UTG call i can narrow down a bit. I opt to flat because I can outplay them on either street. If my flush hits great, they will pay me with KK AA anyway, but i’m only calling to get the UTG to put money in. I see why you would jam

Come on , get some spine. This is a quick all in. You want to get a bunch more chips? And this is a great spot.