Top pair on paired board, high stakes no limit

DailyHandQuiz

Game type: 200/400 6 max NL on Full Tilt
Your image: You’ve lost a couple medium-sized pots recently
Opponent’s image: Top NL player
Your hand: A♠K♥

This hand took place between OMGClayAiken and eighty88. You’ll be standing in for eighty88. Thanks to High Stakes Report for the hand history

The setup: You’ve been taking your lumps in this high stakes no limit cash game when the following hand comes up. You’re dealt AK on the CO. UTG folds and you raise to $1400. Galfond calls on the button and the blinds fold. You whiff the flop:

5♠5♦Q♦

You bet $2800 into $3400. Galfond calls quickly. You pair the turn: K♠.

You decide to check, and Galfond thinks for a second and fires $5200 into $9000.

What’s your play?

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10 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

DHQ Staff

Checking certainly muddied the waters here, but what’s done is done. With your image, it seems unlikely that Galfond pulled a pure float on the flop, so he’s either on a medium pair, a diamond draw, a 5, or a Q (probably only AQ and KQs, although he’s likely to have isolated PF with either of these). Given that range, you’re ahead more than you’re behind, but you’re never really getting called when you’re ahead.

This is a spot where a call almost commits you to a tough call down on the river having little idea where you stand in the hand. I think you can actually bail on this hand. You’re going to pay a stiff price when you’re behind, and you’ve allowed Galfond to control the pot when you’re ahead. I suppose you could call here and lead any river for 12k or so, folding to a raise as a cheaper alternative to a call down, but I think you actually have less equity in this pot than it might seem. If you were tighter or seemed less tilty, I’d feel better about the call down, as a float would make up more of Phil’s range, but as things stand, I don’t mind cutting your losses.

What actually happened: eighty88 check raised to 20k and Galfond shoved. eighty called and was shown 54h by Galfond, who took down the pot when the river brought a Th.

[Reply]

kaimano

Tough situation. You have a good hand but may be beaten in many ways. I like the call on the turn and a lead of 1/3 of the pot on any river…if he raises you’re beaten and have lost the minimum. A raise here is useless, infact scares only the hands we beat (AQ for example).

[Reply]

Tom M.

First of all… when your on an ice cold run, even with and espesially with AK off suit, you really are playing agressive but should look to get away from it with a smooth call from the only person with position. It looked dangerous from there and would have given more suspicion when it was played in that manner. I would even be able to put him on AA possibly but thats just a consideration.

[Reply]

Keith Harris

Who’s doing these quizes? yesterdays was weird enough. Does anyone actually think about the fact that calling a raise with 54 from a “top NL Player” is totally a scratch your head moment and that. the fact that he’d have a Queen on the flop is much more likely that flopping trip 5s. I just don’t think this is a fold situation most times since the chance of a top notch NL player calling a raise with 54 and flopping trips are two very unlikely things rather than calling you with a queen in his hand.

[Reply]

Chad Gerson

Agreed Keith Harris, what kinds of donks play these tables from which the quizzes are produced?

Anyway, a hero who can get incredible reads can probably see that this is a fold. Most would raise here. If you’re in the former category, you should play the big game in Vegas and every WSOP and WPT event because you will dominate.

[Reply]

Anonymous

I don’t see how this can be a straght “fold” ? How can you give credit to your opponent for having a 5 after his smooth call on the flop? He could have a Q, small-medium pair, or even a flush draw. The staff must be incredible players …

[Reply]

Chad Gerson

May I propose that the staff member who writes the analysis not be allowed to know what happened until he’s turned in his analysis?

[Reply]

A3n

should not have checked the turn!
it is not that you have to put your opponent on a 5 or KQ but it’s the fact that you now have absolutely no idea where you are at in this hand!

If I don’t know where I’m at and calling or raising commits me to the pot, I fold.

[Reply]

Fred

Call and call the river. Raising get’s us called by nothing worse and c/c allows Galfond to bet any missed draws on the river.

[Reply]

Don’t think I could bring myself to fold, but the staff have the analysis more or less right.

BTN calling 100BB deep with position vs tilting player could be almost any two cards, so can’t rule out a 5. Suspect many Qx hands will play pot control after the K comes out, hitting our range, and we make a suspicious check, with the exceptions being AQ (maybe) and KQ, which beats us. Other possibility: opponent is turning a small pair into a bluff.

A significant fraction of the hands that take this line have us beat. The call/blocker bet line is a fairly sensible one, though it’ll depend on board texture on the river – we’d like to be able to represent strong enough to prevent a raise.

[Reply]