Boat on the turn out of position, no limit cash full ring

I’m holding on to the same logic from yesterday about why we’re probably ahead in this hand. I’m still putting opponent on a weaker boat, so now I’m looking to keep him in the hand and to build the pot.

I think an under half-pot lead makes your hand look weaker than it is and will entice a smaller PP to stick around. $65 or so will also get the pot to right about $280, which doesn’t get you to an all in bet on the river, but it certainly allows you to extract even more value. Check and you risk a check behind, which I think is a nightmare from a value pov. Lead stronger and you risk losing a lot of value as well.

What actually happened: You checked and your opponent bet $99. You check-raised all in and they folded.

The turn has been good, don’t become too tricky. Lead for two thirds of the pot and let him decide for the rest of his chips.

I go for the check-raise, as I said allready yesterday. Wonder if check-calling could be considered, followed by a small river lead, but I guess you can only slowplay that much.

What actually happened was exactly what I hoped would happen, and the most value was extracted from villain imo.

Off course villain would be ready to pay 65$, but if he calls that on turn he will have to call 120$ on river, and he aint paying 185$ more with a baby boat if he is a thinking player.
If you are leading out now, your hand is obviously a pocket pair, and it sure aint lower than the 7 that hit turn. If he has 88 or 99 himself, that doesnt leave many boats out there he beats, and if he pair is low even less.
If villain checks behind, fine with me, he migth call a bet on river, as it doesnt commit him to calling more. Sure you want to build a pot get payed on two streets, but a clever villain just aint falling for that.

Only risk by checking is that a rare flop bluff could check behind and hit river, but if villain comes over the top our river valuebet we get away anyway.

Guess I am a donk, even my “homeboys” in the danish poker forum disagrees with me, but I think hero played this hand just fine. Except for the under-betting preflop and on flop.

Again I completely disagree. Yesterday I would have reraised, but now that I called, and a blank hits the turn of course im check calling or check raising. I want to give him a chance to bet at it with his 2 overs or his smaller pair. If you lead out he may fold to big cards. I would check raise all in, and if he checks behind then I’ll still check the river to let him bluff at it since I showed weakness on the turn and the river. He will bet the turn or the river, so either way I make money assuming of course he doesnt hit an over on the river. I wouldn’t have put myself in this position by calling the turn. NL Holdem is a game of aggression, and I want to be the aggressor. No way I call his raise on the flop if I think i’m head i’m jamming, and if I think i’m behind i’m folding. I’m not playing a guessing game in NL. In limit I may just call, because a 3 bet wont get him off of 2 overs anyways.

[…]assuming of course he doesnt hit an over on the river[…]

4 overcards (J,Q,K,A) are too many to risk such a big pot. He’s not going to bet if you check as he waits for another check on the river to show aggression. We are out of position, I don’t like to be tricky.

Check-raising is the only continuation play that makes any sense IF you just called the flop, which as I pointed out yesterday was the wrong play entirely.

Here you got lucky but if the opponent holds two big cards he will check behind and you have to duck another bullet. Yes it’s a nightmare - and that’s why you needed to reraise the flop and lead here (if he is donk enough to still be there).

You got lucky when the turn was not a scary card to pair one of the villain’s 2 overcards. Stop tempting fate and rake the pot with a nice lead.

I couldnt agree more with OPI.com, which actually stings. Independent of the flop action, I would say to lead here….but if you check/ call the flop, there is absolutely no other play that makes sense here other then checking. Are you repreenting a 7?? Let him figure youre on high cards, get his money in there, then raise if you think youre ahead.

Let me state my case again.

Everybody seems to assume that villain has two overcards all the time. With no additional info on villains play up till now, I will claim that he has a pocket pair a majority of the time. Lets say he has over cards 1/3 of the time, which i think is a high estimate.

When you get outdrawn you loose the pot+your riverbet of 80$. When you dont, you win 100$ when succesfully checkraising. Lets say a small pocket pair calls your 80$ riverbet half the time when checkingbehind for potcontrol.

Lets say he checks all overcard combos, and checks half the time for potcontrol with pocket pairs:

EV=1/3*100$+1/3*(6/44)*-230+1/3*1/2*80$=+36$

Off course, if you believe villain likes to get into a stone bluff against a TAG raising from early position rather than play the fishes, and hence think he calls you preflop and raises you on flop with broadways often, this calculation is useless. On the other hand, if you think he has a hand way the majority of the time, as I think, there is clearly +EV in keeping him in.

Again, I guess I must be just a donk.

I love all the ev and math guys. Every % you come up with is a guess, so it’s impossible to figure. Lets say he has overs 1/3 of the time. How do we know he would have overs 1/3 of the time, and what if this time he doesn’t. To me it’s all about feel, and playing the players not about guessing what % of the time he held what. If he has a smaller pair he’s going to call your reraise on the flop anyways. So again the best play in my opinion is reraising the flop.
Let’s look at it another way. Let’s say he has a smaller pocket pair, and you think, because of that let’s just call him on the flop, so we do. Then an ace hits the turn, and u lead he puts you on ak and folds, but had u reraised him on the flop there’s a good chance he calls.

@JohneDrama

“…If he has a smaller pair he’s going to call your reraise on the flop anyways. So again the best play in my opinion is reraising the flop….but had u reraised him on the flop there’s a good chance he calls.”

No. There is ZERO chance a clever villain with a smaller boat calls a 3-bet on flop. You are highly underestimating your opponent now. Would YOU call a 3-bet on flop with like 88 or 99 against a tigth opponent raising from early position? In that case, please tell me what site you play and what your nickname is.

And if we flatcall flop, we dont lead ANY turn cards. As on flop, we scare off any inferior hand. If an A hits we go CC or CF.
We are told that villain is solid, which indicates that he doesnt bluff a lot. So if an A hits, there is little chance he is going to start bluffing at it, as he can better suspect hero to have hit it than vice versa.

I AM playing my feel. My feel is that he has a smaller boat and is going to either bet the turn to see where he is at, or call a medium valuebet on most rivers. Everyone else objects, as there is a chance my feel is wrong and I will be giving away free cards.

I dont believe that he has overcards 1/3 of the time, I dont believe the EV of slowplay is 36$. The purpose of calculating an estimated EV, is only to put into perspective how much i risk by slowplaying. And to me it seems that even though I am sometimes wrong and give away the pot, there is still enough value in getting a few more $ from villain when I am rigth to make the slowplay reasonable.

I must be wrong as nobody likes my play, but then let me be a fish.

Bet 1/3-1/2 the pot on turn

Bet 1/3-1/2 the pot on river no matter what comes up. Yes a TQKA will come some of the time, but your opponent usually won’t have it

You hand is good but not fantastic, you’re out of position so make decent sized bets to prevent big bluffs and to get some value

And yeah you’ll lose some of the time to JJ and the like, but that’s just poker.

I think people are over analysing this

Bet 1/3-1/2 the pot on river no matter what comes up. Yes a TQKA will come some of the time, but your opponent usually won’t have it

Yes, but if they don’t have it they won’t pay us! We are in a situation of reverse implied odds…we are guessing what the opponent has while it’s pretty clear for him what we have…and our hand can only become worse and worse with the turn and the river…take down this fuc*ing pot NOW!

I still think he either has a smalller boat or just overcards. Bet around 2/3 of the pot, If he is a good player he should lay either down.