
Game type: Poker Stars Sunday Million
Stage of tourney: 34 / 7300 remain
Avg stack: 2.6m
Your image: Solid
Opponent’s image: Has a history of being loose, but has been nitty last few orbits.
Your hand: A♦J♣
This hand is based on a hand that took place between pusteblume and idlehours. You’ll be standing in for puste.
The setup: You’re deep in the money of the PokerStars Sunday Million. At 27, the pay for everyone jumps by about 1k. You’ve been playing a solid game post-flop, with a decent amount of activity, and taken down all of your recent pots uncontested. This hand you raise to 3x from the hijack and the CO folds. The button calls and the blinds fold. You flop a couple weak draws:
8♦Q♦9♣
You lead for 220k into 820k and get flatted. The turn improves your hand with a flush draw:
9♦.
What’s your play?
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I think of all your available plays I like the pot sized (or larger) bet the least. This turn completes too many hands that would flat call the flop and it’s somewhat difficult for you to represent that it helped your hand by making a large bet. You’re drawing dead against some of the hands that will call you and have a decent, but not great, amount of equity against the fattest part of your opponent’s calling range. Sure, every now and against you might get them to lay down QJ or KQ, but I don’t think it’s that frequent or likely.
The small bet might buy you a cheap river, but you have to deal with the possibility that showing weakness twice in a row will get your opponent in a raising mood, and you can’t call much. You’re also setting up an awkward river situation where the pot will be built, you’ll have a lot of chips behind, and you’re likely to be tempted to fire another barrel if you miss.
Checking doesn’t suffer from any of the above, but it might motivate a weaker hand to take a stab. The thing is, there just aren’t many weaker hands still playing at this point, so you’re unlikely to fold the best hand to a bet. You might even get a QJ-type hand to give you a free card, which would be ideal.
On this board out of position I’m going to vote for the lowest-risk play. I hate to give up the pot in the middle, but I’m running short on scenarios where I can actually win it, so I’d rather not spew trying to force the issue.
What actually happened: In the actual hand, idlehours only had about 1.2 million remaining, and pusteblume put him all in. idle called and showed KJd for a flush, held up and won the pot.
[Reply]
It’s a tough situation. If I check he will bet 600k and take the pot. If I fire the same amount he may call and see if I fire another barrel on the river. If I make a pot sized bet I become pot committed without a great hand. So the least evil is in my opinion to fire big. I have the Ace of diamond so he can’t call without a made flush or a 9. I go all-in and see what happens. At least I’m not drawing dead.
[Reply]
At first my thougths were to bet like 500k, but the more I think of it the staff is probably rigth – check and dont waste any chips. Perhaps I would call a really small bet hoping that my draws are good.
I really hate the large bet as well. Few queens will fold, no nines will. If he called with the flushdraw, he hit. If he has like JT we are way gone as well. So it is really only if villain was coasting with absolutely nothing that we will make him fold. And to do that the smaller bet would be sufficient.
[Reply]
The actual situation was a lot different from the one presented here. With a short stack this isn’t a bad spot to go out with the draw and I would probably just shove.
With this decent stack I’m giving it up – checking and calling a small bet maybe.
[Reply]
I would have preferred if the post flop bet was a bit stronger to help define our opponent’s range a bit more. I think 550-600k would have gotten our villian to fold his flush draw and gut draw. If he calls that we shut it down totally if the turn doesn’t complete our hand. Didn’t the 220k lead mandate an easy call by our drawing opponent?
[Reply]
I voted:
Tell him that you slept with his wife and while he’s staring at your face with a mixture of anger and confusion, grab 3/4 of the pot and put it on top of your stack.
Then fold to any betting
[Reply]
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