Draw facing a lead on the turn, PokerStars Sunday Million

DailyHandQuiz

Game type: PokerStars Sunday Million
Stage of tourney: 7 / 7600 remain
Avg stack: 11.2m
Your image: Solid
Opponent’s image: A little aggressive
Your hand: A♠Q♥

This hand is taken from game play in the PokerStars Sunday Million between Baikal7 and Kvanmo. You’ll be standing in for Kvanmo.

The setup: You’ve made it to the final table of the Poker Stars Sunday Million. You have a pretty healthy stack and a solid image when the following hand comes up.

You are dealt AQ UTG and you raise to 3x the BB. The table folds to the BB, who calls. You whiff the flop:

8♦J♥4♥

The BB checks and you check behind. The turn brings you an open-ended straight draw:

T♦

The BB leads for 2m. The money jump from 7th to 6th is 10k. What’s your play?

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14 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

DHQ Staff

I think this is a great spot for a semi-bluff. There just aren’t going to be that many hands that your opponent can have that can call a shove here. Add to that the pressure of a significant money jump and the fact that you still have decent equity against his calling range, and I think you have a good case for shoving.

It would be a little easier to justify the shove if the flop had been drier, as you could probably sell a slowplay a little more credibly, but it’s still a board you can tell a reasonable story with. Also, the BB would be getting worse than 2-1 on any call, and still has plenty of chips to play with if they fold. Finally, if you get called and lose you still have enough chips to steal blinds and mount a comeback.

What actually happened: Kvanmo called and the river brought a K, making Kvanmo a straight. The BB checked and Kvanmo bet 2m. The BB called and mucked.

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kaimano

jack and ten are two scary cards, he may have AJ or JT or even KQ for an open ended straight draw. I don’t like to mess it up on a flop like this. It was savier to make a cbet on the flop. Now he may gamble and try to double up…so I prefer to fold.

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Deano thompson

shoving is somewhere between hyper aggressive and reckless in my view. i don’t see what hand you would check on the turn that you could shove on the flop?

the board is so draw heavy that he’s got to think you would have bet any made hand on the flop. i really don’t think the story of shoving is that convincing so i’d call turn and call river if I hit my Ace or Queen, and shove if i hit my straight.

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Deano thompson

*check on the flop, that you could shove on the turn (obviously)

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sonysun

fold because you have nothing. The 4 cards you need to make something puts you at terrible odds, also a queen makes for a straight that you dont have. One of your outs might be working against you.
money Is a large step up, keep your chips.

[Reply]

Moe D

I would have probably bet like 3m at this flop. You raised in first position so you could easily have a big pocket pair here. If he raises u on the flop your screwed. However if you he just calls you can maybe get a free card on the turn if checked to you. I think you lost the lead in the hand on the flop.

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Steve Boyd

i dont like it

there’s 2 flush draws out there, which mean half of your straight cards could be really bad for you, ditto for one of your queen outs + both your ace outs (which may 2 pair him).

your probably behind at this point, and heaps of your outs are risky. With implied odds you really only somewhere around break even if you call anyway, so whats the point?

that may just be me being overly paranoid but this position just seems too marginal – and i don’t like gambling!

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fred

call the 2M seems correct to me because of the implied odds but it is borderline too. at the other end, a shove here is completely insane in my opinion…

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Bobby G

I agree, a continuation bet on the flop is better than a call, or shove on 4th street. I don’t want to risk a draw here. I don’t see him being scared off. He is short stacked and may call any bet. I fold and wait for a better oportunity

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Chad Gerson

Call. You’ve got decent outs and can make a lot of money if they hit. You’ve also got enough chips to survive not hitting. Raise is ridiculous. Fold isn’t incorrect but it’s a little weak.

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Anonymous

fold. you have no equity in the hand. if he could double you up, i may consider flatting and letting him lead into me again on the river. but after him betting 2m out of his 6m stack, you are not getting odds and he has no FE, so your A hi just doesnt cut it.

[Reply]

Tom

Obviously the continuation bet after the flop was the right play, but in this situation I would say fold. Calling I think is the worst option, since there is a multitude of hands our opponent could be making this bet with. As Steve Boyd said many of our outs could serve to make or improve our opponent’s hand. If we call here, we open ourselves up to an all-in on the river and a big decision if we hit anything but the 2 black Ks.

While not my first option, I do see an argument for the raise. Our opponent could be making this bet with anything from a set to a flush or straight draw. If we push and catch our opponent with a draw or even AJ or AT it’ll be hard to call. If our opponent calls we still have quite a few outs to give us a huge pot, the chip lead with 6 remaining, and a guaranteed additional 10k in money. If we lose we still have enough chips to move around and make a comeback.

In this situation however, I probably muck it and go on from there.

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Normaoa

i am gonna show this to my friend, brother

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Drooo82

Its the Sunday Millions final table. One elimination means big cash and we are currently second biggest stack. Better wait for a better spot and Fold. Even if we hit our straight there is probably only 2 kings and 2 black nines (even we can be beat if a nine come) that can actualy help us. The red kings and nines could possibly help our opponent.

So Fold now and wait for better spot and wait for others to get busted.

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