What kind of hands would pr1nny play this way in position? If he flopped a flush or another strong made hand, this would be a pretty reasonable line. If he flat calls, that gets close to 4500 in the middle and leaves him with 13k behind, meaning it won’t be tough for him to get most of the money in by the river.

Would he play a draw this way? It’s actually pretty likely that he would. When you rewind the hand, it becomes clear that raising with a draw on the flop wouldn’t be all that appealing. When Genius leads for 1050 into 2200, that puts 3250 in the middle and pr1nny has about 14k. Shoving is overkill, and a normal-sized raise is transparent and awkward, as he can expect to get played back at frequently on boards this wet. If he makes it, say, 3k and Genius shoves, now he has to call 11k to win ~20k. He won’t be wrong to call with very strong draws, but he won’t be overwhelmingly right either.

When you’re against a strong draw, you’re about a 2-1 favorite and you show a win of about 10.5k. When you’re drawing to your two outs, you show a loss of 8730. So, if you think you’re against the draw more than 45% of the time, you call. Seems close, and if you have any meta-game considerations that can tip this to a call, I say call.

What actually happened: You called and pr1nny showed ATs for a flopped flush. His hand held and he won the pot.

You raised preflop, bet on the flop and bet again on the turn. He isn’t scared and shoves. No need of math, you’re beaten. Fold.

Villain can easily put the hero on an overpair, TT+ or AJ+. Let’s look at how the hand was played out. With absolutely no read on the opponent (other than “aggressive”) I would have to fold here.

His call on the flop makes it look like he is fishing for a 4th spade. His shove gives you favorable pot odds of roughly 2:1. As you can see, villain was expecting you to call here with these favorable odds. If villain only smooth-called and a 4th spade came up on the river then it would be an easy fold.

The villain wants you to think that they are 4 to a flush and probably caught some piece of the flop. But I think, with this extra level of analysis, it becomes clear that they want the call from you.

Of course, the entire level of thinking can go a further step deeper, if both players knew each other were capable of making this analysis in 3 seconds perhaps prinnyraid would have smooth-called here.

Agree with Kaimano.
Only 10.5 against 1 to get a full.
The board and the opponents acts are really scary.
Fold

I voted call.

Don’t we have 4 outs? (2 Qs, 2 6s).

Yes, we have 4 outs. I said call simply because I felt I would have been pot committed here. There is approx 6k in the pot when he shoves the 10k in to go all in, so its approx 2:1 to call (less I am not understanding the math here.

It’s not a hard fold on the turn, I don’t think (sitting here on the rail). When I first read it I thought the action was on the flop, and then it’s an easy call. Flat calling and then pushing on the turn is way too suspicious. If he had a hand you could beat he would have gone with it on the flop. Tough in heads-up play, though. I don’t hate going broke with an overpair, even on such a scary board. If I ever played that high then maybe I could criticize.

live, i fold after tanking for like 5 minutes

online, i call (snap call, then pray)

it’s too close to call. it’s close to neutral EV long term.

A decision that really has to be based on feel and history with your oponent. Personally id lean towards a call.

good analysis silver. I’d fold with no background info on this one, but calling is pretty even w/ the pot odds as you mentioned.

i said call but i actually misread that we had the Qc not the Qs. It actually changes alot (even though just having the Qs still means he flopped the nuts on you)

Fold~
too much action for a call, i wouldnt be pushing if i had the nuts, when someones already doing the betting for me, chances are he pushes on the river anyways… and really, there were only 4 cards that can help, muck your hand, see another flop and try again later. So what, he might have bluffed you… but you’ve got money still and can keep playing.

Call,
smells like As x semibluff, which means the odds are in your favor. Semibluffing on the turn is pretty standard with a big draw from a good player.

Note, the 6d isn’t a card that helps get money out of players (pairing board=bad), which raises the question, “Why would he bet a 6?”. Given the call of 11xBB preflop, a 6 is a card I’d consider unlikely.

full house? Possibly, if we missed we would get no value if we were semibluffing. However, Would we call here with a semibluff? Ewww.

Probably not fullhouse but hell i can live with going out to a fullhouse here in heads up.

Hard for me to imagine him having something other than a semibluff really.