Missed flop and turn, out of position, Poker Stars Sunday Million

DailyHandQuiz

Game type: No limit tournament, Poker Stars Sunday Million
Stage of tourney: Final table bubble, 12/6500
Avg stack: 5.7m
Your image: LAGish
Opponent’s image: Solid
Your hand: A♣8♣

This hand is taken from actual game play in the Poker Stars Sunday Million between Queen West and Tired Loser. You’ll be standing in for Queen West

The setup: You’ve been attempting to push the table around with moderate success since play went shorthanded. This hand you raise to 4x the BB and the CO flat calls. The blinds fold and you miss the flop:

7♣3♠J♥

You bet 1m into about 2.5. The CO flat calls. The turn pairs the board low with the 3♦.

What’s your play?

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14 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

DHQ Staff

You took your shot and now it’s probably time to give up. Since you’ve been playing aggressively, your opponent is far more likely to slowplay a strong hand both preflop and on the flop, knowing that you’re likely to do the betting for them. The dry flop is another issue – it gives your opponent far fewer reasons to call without a made hand, and it makes them even more comfortable slowplaying a strong hand. Plus, on the off chance that your opponent is playing a weak pair, there’s a good chance they’ll check behind the turn, giving you a shot at your 3-6 outs.

If you bet again, you’ll dwindle your stack to the point where you no longer have resteal potential. If you bail on the hand now, you’ll be a little short but still have enough firepower to rebuild, especially at a shorthanded table in a bubble situation.

What actually happened: Queen West led the turn for another million and got called. The river paired the board again with a 7. Queen led again for 1.25m and Tired raised all in. Queen called the extra 1.5 million and tired showed JJ for top boat.

[Reply]

kaimano

out of position, no hand, no draw. Easiest check/fold in my life

[Reply]

silver

This late in a tournament no one would flat call unless they’re:

a) trying to make a play on you
b) drawing for a hand
c) trying to disguise a monster
d) have a mediocre hand, yet they are putting you on a worse hand due to your level of activity

a) is unlikely, b) is not possible on this dry flop, c) is possible, and d) is definitely a possibility as well.

IMO it’s a pretty easy check-fold here if the CO fires a shot. If an Ace peeled off on the turn, I’d definitely be going broke on the hand though. I would expect from the villain any reasonable hand KJ JQ, maybe J10 at worst depending on your read on the opponent.

I honestly wouldn’t have been able to put the opponent on top set, but definitely top pair with a reasonable kicker. There’s almost no chance of getting the guy to fold TP in a HU pot vs a laggy opponent.

Also I wouldn’t have given Queen West credit for a 3 due to the opening raise. Firing the 2nd barrel on the turn was at best questionable, and sirens should be going off from the cold call by villain on turn. Leading out again on the river was horrible; there are 2 pairs on the board and if you were called down on both streets they must have had at least a 3 or a 7. I don’t think I would have been able to fold a full house here in either case.

[Reply]

-David-

It’s not even a conceivable check/fold… that flop is so dry that opponent can float, call with a weird gutshot, etc. I don’t mind leadng the turn. JJ is such a small percentage hand here it’s ridiculous. I have no problem shoving or betting large on the turn.

[Reply]

kaimano

David, he expects you to bet again on the turn so he’s not calling on the flop to give away money. I prefer to surprise him by not betting on the turn.

[Reply]

Moe D

Nobody is floating this flop for a $1 million bet on the flop, unless your truly big stacked which in this case Killian is not. Easy Check/Fold, you took your shot and were called go on to the next hand.

[Reply]

onlinepokerincome.com

It’s time to fold, slow down a little, and hopefully get paid off with a solid hand – since eveybody knows we are speeding.

[Reply]

ace in the hole

be dumb not to check/fold

[Reply]

call me dan

with an M of 8.5 pre flop and in the hijack with a suited ace I would have shoved to build stack for the final table.

[Reply]

Anonymous

oh wow…

the old “I’ll go all in, because they are suited” gag. You deserve to be trounced by the hooks

[Reply]

Steve Boyd

I voted:

Smack the guy in the head and while he’s stunned swap your worthless hand with his jacks. Then fold, flip over your jacks and say “best fold of my life, I know that you’re slow playing quad 7s”

[Reply]

Chad Gerson

Shouldn’t even have c-bet. If you have A8 and you 4X raise and are called, you’re probably behind, especially when you’re living up to your LAG image. If you don’t hit, check-fold. Unless you have a read on the opponent which gives you some justification for a c-bet here.

The bet and call of the opponent’s push was truly donk behavior. I LOVE playing against those guys. Any J beats you, not to mention any 3 or 7. On a double paired board, unless you have at least the low boat, you’d better think long and hard and have a good read before you call.

HEEEEEEE HAW!

[Reply]

bluesbread

I would have folded or gone all in preflop. But now that you’ve gotten into this mess, go ahead and try to bet your way out. David says it well.

[Reply]

piquetb

Dope roped ?

[Reply]