Underpair in the hole in position, high stakes no limit cash

DailyHandQuiz

Game type: 50/100 No Limit cash., Full Tilt Poker
Your image: Very aggressive
Opponent’s image: Has been playing solid and winning the big pots
Your hand: 2♣2♦

This hand took place between Genius28 and Aeron73. You’ll be standing in for Genius28. Thanks to high stakes report for the hand history.

The setup: You’ve lost a couple of big pots in this match so far, but just due to some bad luck and timing. Your opponent has been fairly solid and seems to be running well, but it certainly capable of tricky plays.

This hand you raise to $300 and villain re-raises to $1,025. He’s been 3-betting you preflop about 10% of the time. You flat call and miss the flop:

5♥Q♥5♠

Aeron73 leads into you for $1,325. How often do you raise in this spot?

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8 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

DHQ Staff

When you raise and get called, you’re about a 9-1 dog, so you lose ~6800 on the play. When you raise and take down the pot, you win ~3400. So, a raise has to work more than two-thirds of the time to show a profit.

If you’re getting three bet 10% of the time, that feels like a A 10 / 66 / KQ kind of range, with some weaker suited connectors and some random hands thrown in here and there. Your raise will fold out all missed aces, except for maybe a heart draw with two overs, and will probably never fold out a Q or an overpair. That leaves the question of the pocket pairs between 66 and JJ. You will probably have a tough time getting the top end of that to fold against some opponents, but 66-99 should be a tough call for any opponent.

This play seems pretty close, so I like raising here about 25% of the time. If it is a losing play, it will help to balance your value shoves and semi-bluffs, which should bring it back into positive territory.

What actually happened: Genius28 shoved all in and Aeron73 called, showing AQ. AQ held up and Aeron73 won the pot.

[Reply]

Billy

fold to the reraise… see a flop cheap with ducks..

[Reply]

Sunshine

it scares me that people push around tens of thousands of dollars on hands like this… get outta the way preflop, what’re you even thinking

[Reply]

Max

Only rabid dogs make the play you suggest…. after a real hot day in the sun….around 25% of the time.

[Reply]

onlinepokerincome.com

Can’t see playing the hand at all given the opponent’s image.

[Reply]

JamesBong

lol: “Genius28 shoved all in and Aeron73 called, showing AQ. AQ held up and Aeron73 won the pot.”

shove, eyy? how often do you SHOVE in this situation? ~0.001% of the time.

Raise, maybe 20%, usually i think im beat, but sometimes i want to make sure.

I dont mind min-raising or slightly more to keep him honest, but only 1 outta 5 times.

[Reply]

Tripps

Yeah, maybe I’m hopelessly weak, but if I were trying to keep them honest (which would be in the 20% range), I’m calling here. A call can buy you a good bluff opportunity on the turn, doesn’t cost as much as a raise here (but of course can’t win the hand outright), and could slow your fairly solid player down from AK, AJ type hands – and even spook those mid pairs too. Basically a call here says one of two things: “I’m a weak player that doesn’t like to fold.” OR “I have a hand that’s worth continuing…how about you?”

[Reply]

luvnpower

great analysis by staff

[Reply]