Improved draw on turn in position, Poker Stars Sunday Million

I suppose there are worlds where you can make an argument for checking back in this spot, but this isn’t one of them. Your flop bet was weak enough to not define his hand, and you still have a pot-sized bet in your stack, so you still have to feel like you have decent fold equity. The texture of the flop is such that you’d probably play your made hands strongly here as well as your draws, so you might even fold out a couple of his made hands.

That strong fold equity combined with your substantial equity against hands that will call you makes this a good spot for a strong bet that clearly commits you to the hand.

What actually happened: R2d2doug checked and the turn brought the Qd. iG0t led for 240k and R2d2doug shoved all in. iG0t called with a set of queens.

if he has an ace he’s coming with you so I don’t see any reason to bet and risk being check-raised. You have may outs for free, if he checks again at the river you take a shot at the pot, otherwise you lose the minimum.

Villain could have a multitude of hands after the PF call.. the flop call looks like either 33, 88-AA, or Ax (AA and KK are less likely, as an aggro player would probably reraise with them).

The straight/flush card on the turn would cause any solid hand to bet, both for protection and for value, so that gets rid of 33, 88, JJ, AA and Ax, leaving 99, TT, QQ and KK. If we shove (I don’t agree with a smaller bet, since any bet would commit us to the pot anyway), is it possible for him to fold any of those hands? I think so, at least the pairs. Maybe even a weak A (A2, A4-A7) as well.

Plus, we have 12 outs against any hand that he could have at this point (we even have 10 outs if, by some weird chance, he had 88/JJ), so we’re not hopeless if we get called. We def. have fold equity too, since a shove would represent 20% of his stack. All you can eat, baby.

Basically, Im pushing because I feel he has either paired the Ace or 8. If it is the Ace then I have 9 outs…..if it is the 8 I now have 15 outs. Your only hope is to get him to fold. I would have pushed allin on the flop. That Ace was big and you should have used it to your advantage, figuring if he had an Ace he would have bet the flop to see what you had.

Any bet has us pot committed. So really its a question of being willing to get knocked from the tourney 75% of the time with a busted draw.

Remember we have King high.

I think either way we can check the flop, turn and river. If we want to “capitalize” on our weak image by making a strong play, a check raise on any street looks stronger then a weak (or half pot) bet. If we want to get out of the hand since we whiffed, checking does that too.

In general this stage is a fine time to play weak… we have been doing it already, we have an under avg stack… when I get here I usually play fold/shove until I double up.

It’s shove or check, no other choices. You have to decide whether or not this is where you want to make a move or not.

Looks like a pretty good spot as your stack gets a long stronger if you pick up this pot, but the problem is you are against the huge stack and it’s nothing for him to call you - so if he has a weak ace he is calling and you will have to hit the flush draw.

Nothing wrong with either choice though.

You weren’t happy when the big stack called your button raise. You weren’t happy when the big stack called your post-flop probe. Why in the world would shoving the turn make you happy? You bet for value pre-flop. You bluffed the flop. Clearly, your opponent has interest in this pot you’ve built. It’s time to cut losses and tighten up. You will be exiting the tourney if villain has an Ace. You will be exiting if villain has any pair at all … and with their stack, they have the chips to look you up. Check the turn. Now, what’s interesting to me is the Queen on the river. I’m calling half my remaining stack on the river if that queen shows up. But….believe me or not, I am folding to a lead-out bet on the river if that queen comes. If SB leads out on the river after calling twice, I have a baaaad feeling. And unless I’ve seen this player specifically get picked off with that type of betting pattern, I don’t feel good about my QQ at the end there. But then again, I’ve never won a Sunday Million

I obviously don’t need to play this game. It seemed like an easy check. I am on a draw. I don’t have a made hand. I would like to see a free card. I hear arguments for shoving, but I think I like to have something besides K high to shove at this point. I will hopefully learn enough doing these quizzes to learn when to shove on a draw.

I would bet half of the pot in hopes that he would fold.

If we wanted to commit ourselve to the pot we should’ve just shoved at the start. Its not like our M is so low that we’re desperate. Take the draw.

one response on here that assigned hand ranges on the opponent. thats a good start. no one has brought up what villain will put you on when you make each play.

do you really want to bet that turn? think about it. you have a nut draw, but only one card to come. break it down:

if you bet and he calls, are you happy? if you bet and he folds and you miss the chance to double through when you hit your draw, are you happy? if you bet and he reshoves, are you happy to have to call off your chips on a draw?

whereas, if you check and make your draw, he won’t put you on a backdoor flush or str8, plus your turn check looks weak so he will pay you off. if you check and you miss your draw, you can either fold to his bet or shove on his check, because he’s unlikely to check any made hand after you check that turn weakly.

seems like an easy check behind in my opinion.

buk

A check behind on the turn is giving up the pot completely if a club doesn’t come. Any reasonably aggressive villian will bet the river if we check the turn, as he has no reason to believe we wouldn’t be protecting our hand if we didn’t already have an Ace. Checking is NOT an option for a free card unless we are ready to surrender if our draw doesn’t hit. A bet of half the pot appears like a very strong made hand in the face of the first undersized bet we made post flop. It makes us look like we DON’T want the villian to go away. This bet would force QQ to fold more times than not. I disagree completely with any shove as we have nothing in the SBs action to suggest he doesn’t have an Ace and he can easily afford to look us up if he does.

look, you tried to steal preflop with a decent but not great hand. consider his range after calling two bets from you, a supposed weak player who wouldn’t bet without something decent. he either has an ace, doesn’t think he needs an ace, or is a moron who called two bets with the intention of folding to one more 1/2 pot bet. he called the flop not trying to improve, but because he didn’t believe you had him beat. so he calls, and since he knows his call looks weak, he knows you have to bet the turn no matter what, for 1/2-3/4 of the pot. and when you bet, he can now reshove on you, and look, now you have to make a crying call and see what happens. when he checks that turn, after your weak flop bet, do you not think he EXPECTS you to bet? if he was scared, would this aggressive player not raise to find out if you have an ace? he calls, and calls, because he doesn’t believe your button steal is really a huge hand, he thinks his queens are good. he is ready to reshove that turn if you bet. he doesn’t know you turned the backdoor good draw, so he expects his turn reshove to be folded to; he just wants you to bet so he can win a bigger pot. you’ll surprise him with your allin call, which you could’ve avoided (unless you hit your draw on the river of course) knowing that you were likely behind the whole way.

a chip won is less valuable than a chip lost. when you’re talking about the first 1/3 of your stack and the last 2/3 of yours stack, the value is SIGNIFICANTLY more different than the 2:1 chip ratio would suggest. although unhappy, it is NOT disastrous to have to fold to a blank river, which you have 15 pure outs on, correct?

i disagree wholeheartedly when you say that a 1/2 pot bet on the turn would force QQ to fold more times than not. and this point is crucial to the argument, as well as impossible to actually try to quantify. therefore, i’m done arguing my side; i’ve said my piece.

buk

o… and i think a shove is better than 1/2 pot bet. this is because if he reshoves, you have to call. so then you might as well shove em in there first to maximize fold equity and a shove on that spot actually does look pretty strong as if TPTK or two pair protecting against any possible draws.

so in my humble opinion,
check > shove > 3/4pot > 1/2pot

i disagree with the 1/2 pot bet.

Check. If you don’t make your draw, fold. Simple as that. You are not desperate enough to make a move with no hand.

The other advantage of checking is that he may lead on on the river, allowing you to raise if you hit, and leaving him to decide whether to risk doubling you up.