Medium ace facing button raise, Poker Stars Sunday Million

To me, this size raise in this spot is trying to send a very clear and simple message: I have a good hand, I’m pretty committed to it, but it’s not so strong that I’m eager to see a flop with it or try to trap. To me, that range includes AQ and AJ type hands, along with a range of medium pairs, say 88 to JJ.

If that range is accurate, a shove would be a disaster. It’s going to be rough for tiwo to fold most of that range, given his image, and you’re just not in very good shape when you do get called (roughly a 2-1 dog).

If you have a better read on your opponent that negates the generic read of this bet, then a shove here might work. I just think you’re not being paid properly to gamble in this spot. If you really think tiwo is getting out of line, you’ll have plenty of chances to re-steal in the next few hands, and your stack won’t really be any less of a threat to his even after another full round of blinds and antes.

What actually happened Halfrek shoved and tiwo called with 99. Tiwo hit a set on the turn and took down the pot.

How could you not raise with this hand? Calling would cause problems after the flop, being out of position and all and folding is just plain paranoid. A very aggressive player has raised from the button against at least one tightish player. I’d definately shove seeing as my M is about 3 and I’d be pot committed with any other raise amount. Plus the bubble should make a call less likely from two similarish stacks. The Big Blind is fairly comfortable at the moment with an M of about 5 or 6 and would probably only get involved with a premium hand. He’d probably prefer to see the two of us fight it out. A9 is quite a strong hand here. In fact, a shove here would probably be a good play with any two cards.

any two cards??? Ah ah! Where are you playing now??

argee with the staff even if he is stealing its not like we have a great hand to re-raise or shove here. we still have about 19 times the big blind so we’re too short to be force to shove. i believe this is a bad spot to shove and we need a better hand than this to shove with.

Obviously a fold/raise situation.

As A9 is in the top 10% af hands and villain is definately raising way broader than that being aggressive and on the button, a raise is tempting.

On the fold side are the two facts, that when you get called you are in deep trouble. And, also the size of villains raise indicates strength.

I think I would fold most of the time, but one important piece of info is missing imo:
What is the standard raise from villain here?

If he is making it 4BB everytime, I go for the raise, still only because he is an agressive player. If he usually makes it 2.5-3BB like most players in the endgame probably does, I let it go without worrying.

I kinda voted the donk shove, but I kinda tend to be more aggressive in analysis than when playing… assuming than the 4BB was his standard move.

Jezzta:

Our M is about 9 right now, not 3. We still have time.
I voted fold

I voted fold on this one. It does get frustrating when your appearance is “a little weak” but sometimes you just get a crappy run and you gotta work on losing as little as possible. With two to go before a cash increase and heading inito a large pre-flop bet as the shortstack this should be a pretty easy fold without the most premiuim hands. At this poinnt in the game you really want to see some flops as cheaply as possible.

FOLD FOLD FOLD
IM NOT THE SHORT STACK, I CAN PICK A BETTER SPOT TO GET MY MONEY IN THEN WHEN IM EITHER A 2-1 DOG OR DOMINATED BY A BIGGER ACE. IF YOU CALL YOUR GETTING YOURSELF POT COMMITED WITH YOUR HAND AND PLAYING THE GUESSING GAME AS TO WHETHER HE HAS YOU OUTKICKED. WITH THE BUBBLE APPROACHING AND HIS STACK SIZE HES NOT COMING IN WITH NOTHING.

I agree with drhoho completely, if the villain was making it 3x standard then I’ll fold, if 4x is his standard button raise it’s an obv shove, oppponents image: very aggressive, to me very aggressive means he’ll raise a very wide range here

Fold

Small blind sucks. At this stage in the tourny pretty much the only play you can from here is all-in when you have a big pocket pair. In this case you don’t

However if my stack 1.5mil rather then 5mil i’d shove

The first consideration here is your cashing goal; are we trying to creep higher up the pay scale, or are we trying to mount a run at the top prize? Next, we need to know just how aggressive this guy has been. How often is he attempting steals, and have we seen anyone play back at him yet?

If we want to creep up the payscale and the villain isn’t attempting to steal terribly often, this is an easy fold. As the staff noted, in this case our hand is at the bottom of his range, and we can comfortably wait for a better position to make a stand.

If we’re going for a win and he’s not very aggro, it’s still a fold for the same reasons. But if he has called a resteal with weakish hands (low pairs, broadway cards, etc), I think we can make a play at him. If he folds to a resteal, it’s not worth going for it; we’re too far behind when he does call. If he’s been aggro on the button and CO, A9 is a very good pushing hand.

The fact that so many people voted raise shows you how profitable playing online poker tournaments still is.

While A9 is a decent raising hand, it is an absolutely HORRIBLE hand to be calling all-in bets with, as it is just about guaranteed to be dominated. Once somebody makes a substantial raise, the odds of them wanting to play an all-in pot go up considerably - so you are really risking a heads-up all-in with a raise here, which is the LAST thing you want with this hand.

Now combine that with the fact that you are out of position if he just calls your raise, plus the fact that there are (probably) at least two players with shorter stacks and a $2500 payday two spots away - and that makes raising with this hand here one of the most amateur, donkish moves I can imagine, as demonstrated by what actually happened.

This is really a case of all-in or fold. The argument for folding is that you have already paid the blinds and your next four hands are free and you have the button on the very next hand.

You have enough chips to threaten with an open raise, but your chips and your hand are not enough to re-raise with and not get called and then be in bad shape.

Fold is the only option that should have been considered.

Whoops I miscalculated the M by using the pot amount AFTER the raise. Sorry I’m used to the harrington books where the pot is always given at the start of the hand… :S. Even still, I think there are a few arguments for shoving. Tho with an M of 9, we’re still far from being desperate. Shove if you’re hard core, fold if you’re a pussy.

Again, agree with others that your viable moves here are fold or all-in.

Although all-in seems like an acceptable move at this point, there are a few factors that argue strongly against it.

First off, our hand is just about “perfect”, in that our re-raise will almost certainly be played perfectly by the opponent? Which worse hands will call here? A8, maybe. Which better hands will fold? Probably lower pairs, like 22-44, give or take.

With those middle pairs (under 99), we don’t mind a call… but that’s a fairly small part of their calling range. If they have a significantly better hand (99+ or AT+), our EV is about -1.5 million chips. We really better expect that the button will fold here a lot (at least half the time) to make this move. Do I expect that out of a “fairly aggressive” opponent? Eh, maybe, maybe not.

This, combined with the bubble, seems like a -EV cash situation to me. I’d say better to wait for a chance to be the aggressor (first in the pot) to pick up some chips.

I don’t see how you could raise or call in this situation. You’re in the yellow/orange M-range, and need to be playing the raising game, not the call or re-raise game. Just remember the gap concept, you need more to call or re-raise. His stack is too much, and could cripple you into bubbling if you lose. Why risk 21x BB to win 4x with a marginal hand?

I really don’t understand how you can all say that calling is not an option here. The size of the villian’s raise in relation to the stack sizes screams a pair between 7s and Qs. If I get a flop with an Ace or King in it (or both) then I bet immediately after the flop and take this pot down. If I get called then I have to assume I’m up against AJ or better and I have to fold (but still have 2.5 million chips. A shove here against a fairly obvious stiff raise from a player who normally goes for steals in postion is asking for trouble.
And drhoho hit the nail on the head when asking what that villian’s standard raise had been. I’m guess 2.5 to 3.5x the BB when on a steal attempt.

thailer, there are a number of reasons why calling seems inadvisable. A few reasons:

* I imagine that part of the judgments here are just based off of the general rule not to cold call a raise from the SB.

* Most of the time, you’re not going to get an A or K on the flop (about 65%), so according to your line, you’re just going to pitch it: -875k chips.

* Some of the times you do “hit”, the villain may well make a set or your read can be off and they actually made a (better) pair, and they aren’t going to pay you off.

He’s got 20 BBs and he’s 4xing it, he’s not folding.

Easy fold, especially with a hand as easily dominated by calling ranges as A9o.

I say it’s an easy fold and I’m a LAGtard who likes to resteal.