Top pair with a player all in, final table of the Sunday Millions
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Game type: PokerStars Sunday Million
Stage of tourney: Final table, 5 players remain
Avg stack: ~11 million
Your image: Aggressive but losing
Opponent’s image: The BB has been fairly straightforward
Your hand: J♠K♠
The setup: You’re down to the last five players in the Sunday Million. The (rounded) payouts remaining are as follows:
5th $41k, 4th $55k, 3rd $68k, 2nd $97k, 1st $194k
You raise UTG to about 1.5 million, roughly 2.5x the BB. The table folds to a short stack in the SB, who pushes for just a little over 1.9 million total. The BB thinks for a second and flat calls. You call and flop top pair on a draw-heavy board:
T♥9♣J♣
The BB checks and it’s your action. What’s your play?
12.21.07 / 6am
I voted for the check behind. I don’t disagree w/ the staff’s analysis in principal, but I’ll feel mighty dumb when I bet the other guy out and the all-in guy turns up something that beats me or catches a flush or bizarre trips or something.
This is a nice size pot and I’ve caught top pair with a straight draw, there’s a decent chance I win this hand anyway.
12.21.07 / 7am
Flat call means that QQ-AA is part of his range here… yah okay you flopped top pair with a gut shot and chances are still that you have him beat. But if he doesn’t have QQ-AA the only card you are really truely afraid of here is the A. I check behind just incase buddy is trying to slow play you with a monster…:/
12.21.07 / 8am
Anyone else shove here? I noticed “Bet Strong” as one of the options, but I think that “Shove” needs to be a possibility as well. If we bet strong here (to me, that would mean at least 3/4 pot), then do we fold to a reraise? If so, then we’re left with an M of 4ish, as well as being the new short stack (regardless of if the BB wins the hand or not).
I don’t see Villain slowplaying any hands here due to the draw-heavy board (even KQ would likely bet out due to the flush draw), so that’s not a concern at all. We can check and try to eliminate another player to move up, but that will still keep us in the same spot (and the new short stack) if the BB wins the hand, not to mention close to the SB if he can pull off the triple-up.
If we win the hand outright, however, then we move into 2nd place with a legitimate shot at the win. To me, pushing to increase my chances of winning the pot against the SB is worth more than checking to gain a higher-percent chance of moving up for $14k more. I push and like my chances heads-up with the short stack.
12.21.07 / 9am
yeah, perfect analysis. no brainer, gotta bet…
it would suck to get check raised, but id have to go for it and bust in 4th if need be.
12.21.07 / 9am
check down in cooperation with the BB to increase chances of taking the all-in player off the table.
even if you lose the pot, and the BB wins, you move up 14K. if you go and “start something” with the BB and he feels compelled to win your chips (or push you out of the pot and then lose to the small stack), no-one gains anything.
checking down in coop with the BB almost ensures that BOTH of you move up in pay.
12.21.07 / 11am
I think the BB’s range can be severly limited given the action. Any over pair would bet this. Two pair would bet this. Maybe a check raise with a flopped set, but that’s too risky (and not likely from a straight-forward opponent). So, the only check raise you will get is from a VERY strong hand (flopped straight). So, they check to you, and unless BB called with exactly KQ or 78 (not bloody likely either one given the preflop flat call), you are likely to get the SB heads up.
I don’t like the analysis that suggests getting check-raised here means you are going all in. That’s just silly. Only a true maniac (not this guy according to your observations) or a better hand can check raise you all in. In fact, in these situations where you know the person is going to see your cards, making big check raises on a flop like this mean one thing - the nuts or close to it. I think if you get check-raised here, then you are really unlucky and need to throw it away.
12.21.07 / 11am
your hand is not strong enough to bet - check it down and try to eliminate the player
if the other live player is any good his checking-down range includes quite a few hands that are a favorite over yours on this board, many of which he will call you with if you foolishly bet
suppose he has two clubs and the all-in player has AJ,QQ,KK,AA, or even just a straight draw - in that case betting him off the clubs in this spot is an absolute disaster
you really need a monster to justify betting when there is an all-in player in tournaments
12.23.07 / 1pm
Not only do I shove after the BB checks but I would have squeezed him and gone all in over the top following his preflop call. My preflop hand plays much better against one player and checking it down if I become the small stack is hardly a victory if I’m not the winner. I’m not playing for 4th I’m playing to win.
12.24.07 / 3am
Im shoving here…
12.21.07 / 5am
Perfect analisys. Bet strong to increase the changes os winning agains a single player. Were it a bubble or where you the chip leader I’d agree the checking down to the river strategy, but the risk of not eliminating the all in player pays of for the risk of being raised (and eliminated or bluffed out) latter on in the hand.