Pocket queens against a very tight opponent, no limit cash shorthanded

Pretty clear bet/fold situation.

Given the above information above: no reraise preflop, no raise on the flop and a snap call, strongly leads me to think the only hands which your very tight opponent might have right now are TT,JJ, and maybe AK, maybe. I’d lead strongly again on the turn, and fold to a raise. If I get called I will check and revaluate on the river.

what is poker tracker?

I think you’re pretty clearly up against a frustrated player. He is not trying to gather information from you with his betting. The minimum raise UTG made me a little suspicious, but the lack of a preflop reraise tells me this guy is probably on a pair lower than kings, or A-K/Q, Something worthy of a call but not something he’ll over-commit to. The snap call on our flop bet has me putting him on a draw or a pair, but again, he’s not defining his hand. I would have bet something like 1/2 the pot on the turn and suspect that he’d probably fold.

I think the staff’s analysis is dead on today. I disagree with the bet amounts though.

I voted to lead weak. It’s value time and the K is a huge scare card to our opponent.

If our opponent is frustrated and wakes up to find AA/KK, there’s no way he’s not four-betting here preflop. So, let’s say that his preflop range is any pp/AK/AQ.

On a low flop, he snap calls our close-to-pot-sized bet? Why would he flat call with AK/AQ? Those hands are out. We have to figure he has an overpair to the board. I’m thinking JJ/TT/99.

When the K hits the turn, this is a huge scare card to JJ/TT/99. Since our re-raising range is probably AK/JJ+, his pocket pair is probably not beating anything any more.

A strong bet therefore is folding out almost every hand that we’re beating. I think though, that maybe we can make him guess by making a couple of smallish value bets. Maybe lead again for $55 on the turn here and then lead for $75 on the river.

If our villain raises hard on either the turn or river, we can figure that he oddly played AK or that he flopped a set, but I’m pretty firm in my conviction of a hand like JJ/TT/99 here and we can definitely get a little value still from these hands.

I was a little surprised to see our villain showdown 44–just one more reason to make a smallish bet. Maybe you’re still giving ok odds for him to continue, you are at least somewhat charging him to chase.

Check/ Fold. If you were ahead before, youre not anymore, stop throwing your money away.

Difficult spot and one that happens all the time. Check/fold and Bet/fold are both good options.

If you bet/fold you need to find a cross between betting cheaply and not looking too weak. This is the reason my standard bet size is around 60% of the pot and why my preflop raises are smaller than the 3 x blind everyone else seem to go by.

I like to keep the pot smaller so that my standard continuation-steal bet on the flop is cheap and also my feeler bets (like this one here) are cheap - but also unreadable, as I bet my monsters the same way. I still get the chips with my strong hands when they raise and pot-commit themselves.

staff is dead on… gotta bet. if he raises, i guess we have to fold, begrudgingly.

I don’t know what the staff’s analysis is, as with this new format, I have to post my comment before I can see it, but based on what other people are saying, it sounds like I disagree with the staff today. Oddly, I’m agreeing with OnlinePoker for a rare time!

I voted check/fold. I know that sounds a bit weak, but I’m a bit puzzled by his play so far, and usually when I’m puzzled, I slow down. I really don’t see him betting the turn after I check, because I too put him on 88-JJ. But on the offchance he decided to incorrectly slowplay KK or AA from the get-go, I’ll find out about it here on the turn after I check. If he bets, I have to believe he has the goods and I fold. He would likely bet his KK or AA since he knows how aggressive I’ve been.

Just further to that, I’ve now read the staff analysis and they make a very good point in that with a check, my river play becomes very difficult; true.

Upon further reflection, a small bet might be better to define the situation, which is what Ally alluded to.

I still can’t see the analysis!

I bet about half the pot here.

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