Middle pair on the river, heads up for the FTOPS #15 title

DailyHandQuiz

Game type: NLHE tournament on Full Tilt
Stage of tourney: Heads up for the title
Your image: Very tight
Opponent’s image: Earned his stack through aggressive preflop play and solid showdown values
Your hand: K♦8♥

This hand is taken from actual game play at the final table of FTOPs #15, $150 NLHE. This hand took place between G de Ipanema and moronamus. You’ll be standing in for moronamus.

The setup: You’ve made it to the final two of FTOPs #15, $150 NLHE knockout tournament. First place is about 67k and second will get you about 43k.

You were a short stack going into the final 7 or so, but you managed to outlast all of those players with an exceedingly tight approach mixed with a couple of critical doubles when you did hit a hand. Your opponent has been fairly aggressive preflop, but seemingly in line when a hand actually does go all the way to the river.

This hand you flat call from the SB with K8o, and the BB checks. You flop second pair:

A♦3♥8♠

The BB leads out for 77k, about half pot. You make it 240k and the BB thinks a bit before calling. The turn brings the 6♥. The BB checks and you bet 360k, over half-pot. The BB tanks and calls.

The river is the 2♦. The BB checks.

What’s your play with your pair?

13 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

_CityBorn_

I voted check. But after thinking about it, I think maybe a value bet would have been a better choice. The thinking on my vote was that I doubt we get called by anything that doesnt beat us. We have a tight image and we’ve been betting the whole way. What if he got lucky and caught a second pair, or a wheel, or was slow playing the whole time….now we get raised and find ourselves in a tough position…why risk it? However, the way the action unfolded, it does seem pretty clear we have the best hand, and those extra chips would help our standing. Gotta get em when you can. I think if he has a weaker 8, or he’s just plain curious, he’ll pay off your value bet, so maybe it’s a better choice to give him that opportunity.

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mike

checking is terrible imo. the deuce is in no way a scare card. we really have to try to get chips here. i’d bet closer to 500k, although it does commit me if he check-shoved.

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Rondleman

I agree that we likely – hell, almost certainly – have the best hand here, but I voted to shove. I know the small bet is for value, but if I will be committed to calling a shove if I bet small, with the pot larger than my stack, then I will opt to just shove myself. Is it possible that Villain has something like K3 or Q3, and thinks that he’s good? Would he make a hero call for our stack? Getting better than 2:1 odds and the possibility to end it right there, not to mention still having a small chip lead if he calls and we’re not bluffing, seems like a reasonable price to pay.

Betting 300k, we would have to get Villain to call almost 4x as often as he would call the all-in bet for it to be a positive-expectation move. With the 500k bet, it’s much more likely that he would push us in if he was going to play, rather than just call and leave us with only 600k behind. But, would he be more likely to put us in if we bet 500k, or to call if we push ourselves?

IMHO, the smaller bet looks stronger than the push does, so if I was sitting with a 3 or even an oddly-played 55 (or maybe a weaker 8?), I would be more apt to call the shove than the 500k. I would consider just calling the 300k bet, but not often enough to make shoving less +EV.

I may be way off on this one, but that’s how I read the situation.

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JamesBong

i voted check. the range that would call a value bet is pretty small and a bet of any significant size is getting us pretty committed.

if our 8 is ahead, as it seems, then take the 1.3 mil and be happy… otherwise we just let ourselves get trapped and blew our shot at an extra 20k against the ol 82off BBS.

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Ally

I voted to check behind, but agree that we probably have the best hand and we could throw a small (very small) value bet out there. We might be able to get a call of $250k to $300k from a worse 8 or from a 3.

However, after saying this, all it takes is one slow played hand from our villain and the tourney is over. If he check/raises shoves on you, can you really call here with 2nd pair?

We don’t have enough of the history between these two players to know what our opponent is capable of here. If we think he is capable of a move here or a slowplay with something that has us crushed, I say we check behind. But, if he’s playing closer to the vest, more straightforward, then I think we can get away with a small value bet here.

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Ally

Oh, just one more comment…
I’m really not a fan of shoving here. I honestly think we get nothing to fold that has us beat here–he is calling with any ace, any two pair, or a straight. I also don’t think that there is a lot that he is calling with that we beat. Would he call with Q8 or J8? I really don’t think so. Even though we didn’t raise preflop, there is a chance that we limped a weak ace and flopped top pair and hit two pair on the turn or river. I just don’t see him making a crying call with so much at stake.

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Louise

I think you’ve already bet 1/3 of stack, you have to follow through to sell the story. I think we’re getting calls from an unconnected King or Queen. From the otherside, I would have made a half pot size bet into the check, which would have forced the small blind to put tournament at risk.

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Anonymous

i voted to check,im thinking,he bet out on the flop with the ace,he called the raise,then called the turn,im thinking he woke up with a monster,maybe a set of aces?if you flopped a set of aces with that board,and youve got someone betting into you,why on earth would you do anything other than flat call? you raise and their gone.granted im pot commited by the time i get to the river,if i think hes got a monster,i check and take whats in the pot,or i lose and i have some chips left.

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onlinepokerincome.com

There are so many things wrong with this scenario it’s hard to comment.

First off, flat-calling heads up is for losers. You want to play heads up against opponents who will flat-call you, giving you free looks, but you NEVER want to flat-call yourself when playing heads up. This is an automatic raise preflop.

After the flop, with an ace on board and second best pair the last thing you want to do is build a pot. That’s a good place to call cheaply and see what develops, and a good hand to call down a bluff with if the board doesn’t get scary.

The board never got scary so that’s what I would do – call another bet on the turn or maybe bet about 75% of the pot if checked to and fold if raised.

On the river I am definitely checking behind no matter what, or calling any reasonable bet as part of calling down a bluff strategy. If I were in the villian’s chair and had a weak ace, I would have played it exactly as he did – hoping for an 8 to get out of line with a foolish value bet on the end, or an ill-advised bluff.

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Tripps

Bet this river. Every time. In the grand scheme of things, you are going to be put to a test in this spot very rarely. A check, call, call from your opponent is so weak, you have to assume your 8s are good…and if you think you are good, you should bet. If he has a weaker 8, which is my read on this hand, then he will call to snap off a bluff. If you get check-raised here, well, that’s a tough spot to be in, but not because you played it bad. You bet for value all the way through…why stop on the river.

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philes

Opponent cannot call. He sees the A out there, and he cannot call, unless he has you beat.

He simply will not call, unless he has you beat.

A bet of any sort cannot gain you any chips. It may, however, cause you to have to ponder calling his allin. (Hey, we might call it). But why would we bet?

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Ally

A couple more comments on this hand…

To OPI, I don’t think a flat call there is terrible preflop. With your stack size, you can’t afford to bleed off chips. If we raise and our opponent shoves, we can’t call with K8. But, K8 is too good of a hand to fold heads up.

To others that see that ace out there and think we cannot get value, I disagree. Because we didn’t raise, it’s unlikely that we have an ace.

All we know on the flop is that our villain has a pair and he doesn’t think we have an ace.

And, to anyone thinking that our villain might have a weak ace, it just doesn’t seem likely since he didn’t raise preflop.

It’s likely that our K8 is the best hand, but I’m also not sure of how much more value we can get here.

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IngaSvensson

Hi, sorry to go off topic, but my sister graduates on Tuesday and I really need to find her a cool gift that she will remember forever…

Anyone who knows a really unique gift that doesn’t cost a fortune?

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