Daily Hand Quiz

Either he’s got a monster, or he’s pretending he’s got one.

You are going to need KK+ if he’s got the first one and any 2 cards if he’s got the second.

The probability of a monster is a lot lower, so I’m moving in with any 2. He might even lay down AK if the money means a lot and he knows I’m moving in with any 2.

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I am moving in with any two aswell.

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He’s got a big hand, and he’ll call if you shove. You need a primo hand to be ahead. If you raise, hes likely to put it all in over the top, in which case youll feel obligated to call and youll be behind without a top tier hand…so its a bad play to go in with anything else. Just call, see a flop, if you get lucky you might get his stack. If not, it’s no big deal.

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Fred Reply:
February 23rd, 2012 at 10:55 am

Please stop posting. Your comments are just awful and your advice is horrendous!

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q10+ 22+

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I really do like this question; it’s definitely an area where I can use some help on my game. I’m fairly comfortable raising with any two on a steal, but am not really comfortable with the resteal with any two, especially when it is most appropriate with the bubble play in mind.

I was really hoping to see a situation on a question like this where the best answer was to re-raise with any two.

But, in this case, I actually thought that shoving the top 10% may be too broad of a range. Let me explain.

First off, I don’t think we can assume that our villain is a complete idiot. He’s made it deep in a massive field in a huge payout FTOPS event. The fact that he is not an idiot gives us some clue to his range here.

1) If the $3k bump in pay matters a ton to our opponent, he most likely isn’t raising a hand here that he isn’t willing to call a shove with. I’m guessing for him to raise in that position that he’s opening with 99+/AJ+.

2) The min-raise does tell a story. If our villain has been active, the minraise could be an attempt to steal the blinds and if he gets caught he still has enough behind to fold. But, why minraise and put yourself in that spot? With his chipstack, at this stage of the tourney, he is almost in push/fold mode. I think he shoves a hand like AJ/AQ/AK or 99-JJ and he may only want action when he’s got AA/KK/QQ. So, like someone else pointed out, he’s either got a monster or he’s on a weaker ace or KQ type of hand.

3) The button has $71k. And, sure while the button may be coasting for an additional $3k, there is no way that the button doesn’t want to take his or her shot at doubling up and going for the nearly $200k 1st place prize. Because the button is behind, you don’t really want to raise with crap and have to go against the small stack, or have the small stack shove and then face the isolation raise from one of the blinds behind. Because the button is so short, I really don’t think our villain is raising a very wide range here.

4) Our chip stack is massive and our villain has given us plenty of reason to call the minraise with great pot odds and decent implied odds as well. Plus, we’ve been aggressive so our villain can’t imagine that he’s going to get a walk with the min-raise steal.

As much as I want to learn about bubble play and putting your opponent to the test for their tourney life, I just don’t like this spot here. I think our villain’s stack, the raise amount, our villain’s position, the bubble, the shortstack behind, our aggressive tendancies, all point to him or her folding almost any hand; when they do open, they are more likely to open shove, and when they minraise like this, I have to put them on a monster; QQ at the worst, but even then QQ may be a shove.

I don’t think a shove in this case is a very profitable move, but am interested in more questions like this to get a better feel for bubble play aggression.

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I said top 10%, because that was the most restrictive answer.

I think the odds of this being some sort of a move, a too-clever pre-flop post oak bluff, are just about 0. He has an M of around 6, and just min-raised into two big stacks in the blinds. His fold equity is practically zero, and he knows this. Unless you have total garbage, you’re going to at least call, given the 3-1 odds.

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As always, a very insightful analysis by Ally. I also would like to see more questions of this nature. Oh, for the record, I put Villain on AA-QQ, AK-AQs, since in these circumstances anything else is a fold/shove-steal situation. Consequently, I am only raising with top 10, and calling with top 50. Even at that, post flop play will be tricky.

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I agree with Ally, but I dont really dissagree with the DHQ In there analysis. Personally im rainsing top 10% only, even if EV wise top 50% may be profitable.. I think Monetary EV has me playing only top 10%.. While playing for it all witht his stack doesnt hurt you that much if you lose… keeping your big stack I think will be better in the long run..especially with the bubble.

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If I’m going to play this, I prefer an any 2 stop’n'go.

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Did some of you fail to notice the size of the ante-fed pot? You are getting good odds here to play with almost anything, unless you are certain he has a high pocket pair.

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Call with J7o and risk 386k more chips all in if we hit minimum 2 pairs. He can’t fold his big pp anyway if we shoved.

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Just 4 players left and we’ll reach the final table. Even at our table there are 4 players who have below 1 million chip. We will at least get there by playing tight and not too fancy and creative.

With this min raise we need to re-raise with premium, and with Co min raise I think we just call and see if we hit min two pairs if not just muck it he’s got monsters. I think his range is min AQ

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People out of their comfort zone do not make double twisted tricks, they are more than happy to survive one more minute. The 3k jump in payment might be more than V’s yearly winnings in the $30 tourneys. No need to look for other explanation, this must be what it looks like: JJ+, AK. No need to double him up w/o the goods.

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Great question.

I said 10% because I think he would know with his stack that if I he had a mediocre but not great hand like small, medium pocket pairs or a suited Aces he would just shove all in preflop. The fact that he is raising here made me suspicious and is looking to r/c also because i’m a likely candidate to move all in against him since my image has been aggressive. I like a narrow range.

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