Top pair on a scary turn, high stakes no limit holdem cash game
Thanks to HighStakesReport for the hand history.
Game type: 300/600 No Limit cash at Full Tilt Poker
Your image: Very aggressive
Opponent’s image: A little more selective, but tough
Your hand: K♠Q♠
This hand is taken from actual game play at the 300/600 NL holdem table at Full Tilt. This hand took place between Urindanger and ip_control. You’ll be standing in for Urindanger
The setup: You’ve been on the losing end of this session so far against a fairly unknown but so far tough opponent.
In the one big hand played so far, your opponent turned a gutshot straight out of position. He made a 3x checkraise on the turn after you bet about 2/3 pot to his check. You held top pair, top kicker that hand and stacked off.
This hand you raise 3x preflop from the SB and your opponent calls. You flop top pair again on a reasonably safe board:
Q♣T♥5♣
He checks and you bet $2,700 into $3,600. He calls and the turn brings the 9♠. He checks again and you bet 7k into 9k. Now your opponent shoves the rest of his stack in, about 70k total.
What’s your play with top pair and a gutshot?
10.24.07 / 5am
Top pair
10.24.07 / 6am
Yeah this looks like a fold.
Joe poker is a game where if we think we are ahead we call.
Obviosuly Urindanager thought his range was ahead of IP’s range, and made the call.
10.24.07 / 9am
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: check-calling out of position in no-limit always makes me nervous. It’s a little unorthodox here with the nut straight draw, but usually it’s scary. I may have checked behind the turn even if that meant facing a huge river bet.
Great move by your opponent, this is almost an impossible read and I don’t blame him for calling. Ip_control could just be making a play with a hand like AJ of clubs. He could also have 55 and decide it’s time to protect his hand against a two-way draw.
Still, I voted fold just because the odds are very unfavorable, and I just can’t believe a pair of queens with 2nd kicker is the best hand on a QT95 board.
10.24.07 / 9am
70,000 dollar call with top pair second kicker? With no real reason to think your opponent is bluffing. Think about how dumb that is…..
People with good hands heads up PRAY for opponents who call big bets with top pair.
10.24.07 / 11am
I’m not very impressed with the play of either of these guys - sheesh if I only had the bankroll….
The white guy raises $70K into a $16K pot with the nuts? Gee, that’s creative…
…and the orange guy calls! With 1 pair, not even best kicker! (I would lay down middle set here.)
This game is all about finding opponents that will donk off their stack with 1 pair hands. Buddy-list the orange guy.
10.24.07 / 2pm
cityborn is like the Moses of poker…amen
10.24.07 / 3pm
The prevailing analysis is that the only folks who ever check-shove on the turn after call/check-call on a board like this are those holding the goods which beat top pair. Ooooh, the sky is falling ~!
Onlinepokerincome proudly proclaims that he always lies down like a girl under these circumstances, even with middle set (!?! - yeah, riiiiiiiight). Jeez - ain’t ya ever been bluffed?
Starting to think you guys are just nits. I want you in my buddy list! Do enjoy losing your money to me slowly rather than all at once.
All that being said, I voted fold too ….
10.25.07 / 3pm
Call. Most common hands he’ll be doing this with are likely Jx hands that give him pair and straight draws. onlinepokerincom, you are so ridiculously bad if you fold anything even close to middle set, its not even funny. Are all your posts meant to be a joke? The reason you don’t have a bankroll for these limits is you have no idea how to play the game (at least if your posts are serious that is).
Questioning the regular high limit player’s play is generally not very productive. 99 of 100 times they’ll have a better idea whats going on in the hand than any of the posters.
Anyway, you have to be about 40% vs his range here, and given the board has a lot of semibluffing potential, and you have a reaonable number of outs vs anything but made straight (decent chance of this hand) and sets (rather unlikely, high stakes players usually rr these pre, and play them more aggressively on action flop like this), I would guess you’re somewhere between 40 and 52% against his range, depending on some info we don’t have about ip’s style and more history than just one hand.
So its a call.
12.20.07 / 10am
The overshove is a newly popular play with the high stakes regulars. It is such a mystical play, there’s really no way to get a read on it; if he just raises to like 20k i think urindanger can let it go, but he has to call the overshove that looks like protecting queens with a low kicker. Urindanger makes a call that i probably would have (after deliberating a while) made.
10.24.07 / 5am
Why do people play cash like tourney? With the blinds being so deep pick a better spot. I guess the fact he is having a losing section might of effected his decision. But man people go broke on to pair.