Tourney / NL

Missed flop against a lead from the blind, no limit tournament

Game type: NLHE tournament, Sunday Millions on Poker Stars
Stage of tourney: 15 players remain
Avg stack: 4.2 million
Your image: You’ve avoided any major confrontations for the last few orbits
Opponent’s image: Fairly active, but has also shown down some strong hands
Your hand: A♠T♠

The setup: With only two tables left, you’re just six players away from your first Sunday Millions final table. You’ve been playing a little tight over the last couple of orbits, but not weak - you’ve just been quiet. This hand, the table folds to you on the button and you make a standard opener to 3x with your suited A. The BB flat calls and the flop doesn’t bring much:

K♠2♥8♣

The BB thinks a second and then leads out for a little under half-pot. He is the chip leader and has been fairly aggressive, but not really what you’d describe as out of line. What’s your play on this whiffed flop with about 1.8 million in the middle?


13 COMMENTS  (Jump to comment form)

casinos en lnea
10.18.07 / 3am

explosively dimensioning,colonized understanding trophy bowl Doubleday

philes
10.18.07 / 5am

I’m going to peel a card. Just a call. It’s cheaper. It also looks stronger, in many spots, to many players. Here, it may well induce a check.

But I still need for a friendly turn card to fall. An A, perhaps a spade, or a T. Or for the board to pair the K or the 8.

Bob
10.18.07 / 5am

2 Options here.

Fold or RAise.

I think without a read you should just fold this.
His range here is often a K or PP, just that I dont know how oftne he is folding here, and I dont think it is that worth it considering we are a large stack and we should be trying to use the bubble situation on short stacks.

Morty
10.18.07 / 7am

I voted call but it really depends on my read because I could do 3 things: fold (based on info provided I’m not likely to do this but…maybe), raise 3x (the staff describes reasons for this), and float a call with the intention of folding to a bet or betting a check (must know the player to do this one but if you do I think you commit your chips with more info or you can bail cheaply). I think those are the 3 reasonable plays but I’d have to be there to be confident enough to decide on one.

Louise
10.18.07 / 9am

I think a call is a really bad idea. The BB has first bite at the pot after we call — we have to fold or raise. I voted raise, I could let go if the BB shoves.

onlinepokerincome.com
10.18.07 / 9am

FOLD

Look at the chip stacks - you’re in a great position to make the final table of the big one! Don’t ruin this position by blowing off chips to the big stack when you have… nothing!

If you insist on “making a move” at least do it when you have a piece of the board and/or a decent number of outs.

Adam
10.18.07 / 9am

In a cash game, I might make this play but in a tournament I’ll folding. You have an above average stack and it would be nice to keep it that way, not bluff half your stack on an ace-high hand against a big stack. You’re behind to any king, any pocket pair, any ace with a better kicker, and even some trash like 87. If he has middle pair with an ace kicker, you are looking at a 3-outer; if he has 2 pair or a set you’re almost drawing dead.

We’re assuming the blind is folding or shoving; what if he calls and you pick up a bit of a hand or draw? Suppose the turn is T of diamonds or J of spades and he leads again; what then?

There are additional image benefits to making this fold. I had a similar situation in a live tournament. I raised with KQ of clubs, the blind called, and the flop was A73 all hearts. He bet out, I tanked and ultimately folded, and he showed me T9 diamonds for a pure bluff. But the next time I had a big pocket pair, he paid me off big because he thought I was steaming and making a play at him.

Sted Ruckus
10.18.07 / 12pm

Fold, fold, then in case no one at the table saw you, tell them out loud, enunciated… I fold.

No reason in hell to make a move on this pot, especially against the big stack. I think his range here is much bigger than you give credit for. Its nothing for him to call a standard position raise and see if he hits it. And obviously we know he’s gonna lead out regardless of what comes out, so its really on you to see if you hit. But I say no need to risk it, because he could have easily hit and knock your stack down.

Wait for a hand. Your loss here is minimal. And so close to the final table.

woobie
10.18.07 / 12pm

I see no reason to continue on with this hand. It’s hard to imagine that we would not have much better spots to commit 2.8m during the next few orbits. And if we need to make a stand and let BB know we’re not an easy target, let’s at least have a draw when we do it, eh?

Beamer0266
10.18.07 / 1pm

Yeah I have to fold this one here and preserve my stack. No need tangling with the CL here on the bubble. I can catch a better spot against a smaller stack that has a looser range against which I nost likely will fare better against. I agree though, that this is a good board for the CL to lead out on and see if he can take it down. He can afford the probe bet and I can’t really afford to reraise if I missed the flop. I’ll wait to tanlge with him when I have a real hand. Fold it.

Chad Gerson
10.19.07 / 12am

You have no hand, no draw, and no reason to believe the BB is bluffing. He called your raise so it’s not unreasonable he hit the K on the flop. Why take a dumb risk when you are in position to make the final table? FOLD.

Geronimo
10.19.07 / 1am

The Big Blind sees this ragged flop and he knows the possibility you hit this flop is very small, so a half pot bet on a complete bluff is going to be a huge +EV play because he knows you’ll think twice risking a lot of chips on a bluff against the big stack. So a big re-raise will work a LOT, but it requires a LOT of heart to do it I guess.

no_donkey
10.19.07 / 1pm

Sometimes these quizzes are very thought-provoking!
And sometimes they’re like today’s.
I don’t even have to wake up and get dressed to FOLD here.

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