Daily Hand Quiz

You’ve got to call here, despite the massive overbet and his history of showing down strong. Two unrelated things make this decision easy for me.
1. flashing the 5 is very suspect. it just doesn’t seem like something he’d do if he had another heart and really wanted you to call. he’s showing the one heart to intimidate, and there’s no reason to let it work.

2. if we were drawing dead to the flush, i’d have to lay this down despite reason #1 above. but we’re nowhere close, and are about 35% to win this pot against any flush. i need to win 46% of the time to make this call right, so obviously the call is wrong if we assume he has the flush, but i don’t think he does. the good chance he doesn’t have it is more than enough to cover the difference there.

if 1/2 were above my bankroll i’d let this go. but i’m certain this call is right in the long run.

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I don’t see how you can ever call this? From the description the villain doesn’t seem to bluff a lot. On top of that he showed a heart which screams strength to me (like somebody talking a lot with a monster hand). If that’s not enough to make you fold, you’re getting terrible odds because of his massive overbet. Suck it up and muck the Queens.

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I think I fold here.

He has the 5h, so either he is on a ridicoulus bluff, or he made a babyflush he doesnt want counterfit (though flashing the 5 is stupid imo).

If he has the flush, which I would find most likely, sure I have 1/3 chance to outdraw him, but potodds are not there.
If he is bluffing, his draw is still good and he can easily outdraw you.
So I fold.

As stated by the staff, if he hadn’t shown the 5, it would definately be a call.

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… oops, forgot name. I am the anonoumous above.

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Were it a tournament I’d call the judge and state that he just folded his allin bet.
Since it is not I´d say he has a flush, but would call anyway because, even though my chance of hitting the boat are slim compared to the pot odds there is another factor not accounted for: It would be too much fun to see this dude go tilt, which might be priceless depending on who is your opponent.

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I agree 100% with the staff, flashing the 5h makes it an easy fold. Without the 5h, his range could include a small flush, 22, 77, any big heart plus a pair, and maybe something like JJ or TT with a heart. With all of this included in his range, the call is easy.

But when you know he has the 5h, the only thing he can reasonably have is a small flush, and 1.2:1 is not even close to enough to draw at a boat. Yes, it sucks having to lay down top set, but you gotta let it go.

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This is only an “easy decision” when you are not in the heat of battle. I wouldn’t be happy here either way… but I would call. He didn’t show both cards so I don’t know what he has for sure, certainly he doesn’t put me on a set, and I have redraws.

The all-in was certainly an interesting tactic, especially with his massive relative stack.

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Im calling here, even with the flashed 5h. While i may be tempted to lay it down depending on how im feeling at the time I dont think i would let this go.

Remember you do have redraws^.

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I voted to call, but after thinking about it more, I think this is a fold.

Let’s look at it in a little more detail. When someone shoves a flop like this, they either have a made baby flush, a very strong draw (usually to the nuts), a combo draw, or a vulnerable hand like two pair.

If we don’t see the 5h, I think this is an instacall since you’re probably up against a hand like AQ or A7 with the Ah. No combo draw is out there, so we can rule that out. And, I’d even say that it’s not likely that our opponent can hold two pair here. So, the range has got to be a set (22 or 77), a baby flush, or a hand like AQ/A7/A2 with the Ah. Against that range, I’m calling all day with top set and even if he’s got the flush, I’m still going to have outs to fill up.

But, the second that he shows the 5h, this immediately changes his range. There is no other single possibility that he has other than a baby flush. He’s not shoving with Q5/75/52 with the 5 of hearts. He can’t hold two pair or a set.

This is such a terrible push on his part having $8 invested with any hand that includes the 5h other than a made flush. And, it doesn’t sound like our villan makes super terrible plays.

Given that this is a massive overbet and his range is exactly a baby flush, we can’t call given the pot odds.

By showing you the 5h, he basically turned both of his cards over. No way you can call here. So, even though I voted to call, I was wrong.

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I don’t profess to be a great poker player so forgive my ignorance. My initial thought was to call, because i didn’t think the guy had a made hand since he showed the 5 and is trying to bluff you off the hand. After further thought, you aren’t getting the right odds and if this guy is calling raises with 5-3 suited, you should beat him in the long run, so folding seems more reasonable all things considered. I don’t think I could let the hand go though.

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Moral of the story boys: sometimes the correct play involves losing.

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Just a quick comment for Phoenix4… The way to win money in the long run is to play hands like 5-3 suited for exactly what happens in this hand. He got his entire stack in as a 2-1 favorite and we sucked out. If he’s getting good implied odds, he will want to play against your big pocket pair since he’s going to get paid off a ton when he hits and we overvalue our hand.

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Although it’s tough, this is a fold for me. It’s already been stated that he shows down with the goods. I almost definately have him on a weak made flush that he is worried could get outdrawn. The push has got to be for protection IMO, also showing the 5h makes the point he definately does not want a call and is tying to intimidate. I know the queens are still drawing live, but the odds make this a bad time to call when behind.

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Jeremy,

I feel you’re missing one important point: If we do call and have the best hand, there’s still a 32% shot of him hitting his flush by the river. So, while we have a 35% shot at a boat if we’re underdogs, he also has a 32% shot at a flush if we’re ahead…it really comes close to balancing out.

That really doesn’t help us when having to have the best hand 46% of the time here.

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If his showing the 5h is so obviously a reason to fold our top set — and thus just about any strong hand — then perhaps it shows he wants us to fold our hand. In other words, and contrary to the post-mortem above, which we must ignore in this analysis, it would seem at least as likely that he is actually bluffing the flush.

And we only need a 16% chance that he’s bluffing to bring our odds up from 35% (odds of improving to FH) to 46% (pot odds).

While you don’t ignore the 5h (you know what it rules out), you also shouldn’t automatically act in the fashion which straightforward analysis shows you “ought” to, given the reveal. He might have Q5, and he might have crap.

So I’d call.

Of course, in a home game we might know what such “cute” behavior means for this particular player, and whether there may be less than a 16% chance that his reveal is a bluff. If he’s never done anything like this before, and doesn’t have a record of honestly giving helpful advice not to call his monster hands (I’ve known one such player), I’d call.

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Oops, it takes a 31% chance of him bluffing for the call to be worth while. (I forgot that, because his 4-flush could improve, his bluffing would not be a lock for me.) The rest of my analysis stands.

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Hi.
Good design, who make it?

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