Open ended royal draw OOP, main event of the WCOOP

Game type: Main event of the World Championship of Online Poker on Poker Stars
Stage of tourney: In the money, no close bubble
Avg stack: ~208k
Your image: You’ve shown solid hands to build your stack
Opponent’s image: A little loose-passive
Your hand: Q♣10♣

This hand is based on game play from the main event of the WCOOP. This hand took place between drag0nslay3r and pokerguru69. You’ll be standing in for drag0nslay3r.

The setup: You’re in the money of the main event of the WCOOP, and you have a stack that is about 3x average when the following hand comes up.

Preflop, you’re dealt Q 10c in the BB. The first three seats fold and drag0nslay3r raises to about 2.5x the BB. The table folds to you and you call. You flop an open-ended royal draw:

K♣7♦J♣

What’s your play first to act?

10 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

prospero42

Who is who here? Mixed it up?

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4Flush

That’s why I voted lead strong.

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Morty

I would have to be 99% sure my opponent would continuation bet here for me to check. If you’re not, the check is terrible IMO.

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Joe B

Lead strong. A check entices a loose player to take control. That is a good move if you already have it here, but you don’t. Leading says you have a K or J, and he knows his A-7 is no good. The fold equity makes it the right play. If he check raises you, you can call comfortably knowing you are a slight favorite even though your hand’s not made yet, and you’ll know where you stand. You can always choose to give it up if the turn is no help.
If you do fire again on the turn, he’ll have to lay it down (but we don’t know the strength of his hand unless we bet on the flop and force him to tell us how far he’ll go/what he’s representing he has.)

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Ben

I agree with the lead. opponent is loose passive so you know hes probably wont raise you if you put in a bet and if that flop didnt hit him then hes most likely checking behind. Hes also loose so you know hes calling… I really dont think id like check raising because it commits my opponent to the pot, so i voted lead.

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Rondleman

I wish I had noticed the “opponent’s image” before making my decision. I initially voted to check, intending to check/raise, but a loose-passive player is much less likely to c-bet then, say, a LAG (or even a TAG) would be. A check behind is the worst possible outcome, obviously, and probably a pretty likely one considering the opponent’s image and the flop texture.

Re-evaluating, I would lead strong. I don’t mind getting it all-in on the flop, as I’m only a 58-42 dog against a set, and no worse than 55-45 against anything else. However, a fold is still a great outcome as well, and betting strong (15-20k) will likely either lead to a raise (to which we can re-raise all-in, if guru doesn’t push himself) or a fold. In the off-chance that we just get called and the turn bricks, we can check/fold from there, unless we hit our draw or have some read.

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Sted.Ruckus

Yah… player image is actually a crucial bit of info here… I think against all other types I check, but with the loose passive you gotta bet into him, otherwise, if he hasn’t hit the flop, then he’s checking around. If you bet and he folds, hey more chips.. if he calls, then youre obviously drawing great, and if he raises, I’d even re-raise and take him all in on the flop.

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no_donkey

Lead strong with strong draw – get information.
Being outta position sucks. Why exacerbate it with weak play?
Losing to sevens is totally donk here. OUCH.

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Chad Gerson

Represent strength when reasonable and possible to do so. A check does nothing to help you–it moves you no closer to winning and it earns you no information. Bet the pot and if he represents a monster with a raise you can get out of the hand with minimal damage.

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_CityBorn_

I voted lead weak. The main idea here is that you either want to get all the money in now while youre a favorite to win, or take it down. Checking is the worst possible option as it gives a loose passive player the chance to do exactly what he did, check behind and win with ace high. If you lead weak, it looks like either a blocking bet or a value bet. He is likely to respond one of two ways, a fold if he missed, or a raise if he has something or puts you on air. If he raises, you push. Even if he flat calls, thats not that bad for you, youve controlled the size of the pot and can build it some more with another half pot’ish bet on the turn whether you hit or miss there. if he’s calling you the whole way with ace high and you miss all those outs, hey, what can you say, you minimized your loss, and he’s quite a player.

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