Daily Hand Quiz

Fold.
He might have two Overs, or a better Pocket Pair in any case our chances are even money or worse. I dont like to flip for my Tournament especialy when iam on the bubble.

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I really think we are best here but only one way to find out. I think a quarter to half pot net will tell us.a lot here and might actually give us the pot. However I really think our opp has a strong here and allowing us to go ahead with our continuation bet before going all in with his monster. So a check behind might not be a bad idea to keep the pot managable.

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@Joe: “To keep the pot managable”
The pot is allready not managable. It only takes a small bet on turn and river to get all the money in.
Checking is basically giving up the pot, you can call no bet what so ever on turn. That is not a bad decision, as there is a huge risk you are being trapped.

As I see it, villain is holding AK or JJ+. Probably AK or QQ+.
If he has AK or JJ he would definately fold to a push, but he migth push if you make a weak c-bet.

I voted bet little under half pot, but folding is probably better. Anyway, I would not have bluffed preflop.

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First of all, I didn’t like the preflop reraise with 55 at this point in the tourney, esp against the guy we just smashed a short time ago. He could come over the top with a wider range if we believe he’s on tilt, and I’m not sure I want to bubble out overplaying 55.

There are two ways to go – a small feeler bet (which I voted for), that we’ll have to fold if he comes over the top, or the check behind, which I also like b/c we’ve currently got a big pot with a small hand, not a good recipe. There are also many (small) cards to come that can improve our hand or give us some kind of draw.

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First of all I have to say that I didn’t like the preflop raise.
55 is a drawing hand, that is, you have to give it up on 1 of every 8 flops if he shows any agression, also if player A, BB or SB shows any agression pre flop, you would have to let your 55 go.
Ofcause raising with 55 is for me a standart move, but the stakes has to be much higher (~70BB), player A has to be a weak player and I should be less risk-averse (that is, I would not do it on the bubble).

Now that you have dodged, all the agression described above a good situation IMO actually occurs. If you bet just below half the pot you would only have to take the pot in 1 out of 3 times to get a positive EV*. And since the only hands he could/should call with is a larger PP or two club overs I would think you had well over 33% chance to take the pot.

Let us analyce his most likelly hands.

AA
His preflop and post flop action makes sence.

KK-QQ
His post flop action makes sence, but he would proberlly have re-raised pre flop.

JJ-88
His post flop action makes sence, but he would proberlly have re-raised or folded pre flop.

A and a face card
His post flop action makes sence, but he would proberlly have re-raised pre flop.

Two face card
His preflop and post flop action makes sence.
A bet with KJo from UTG is IMO a standart move on the bubble, though I would fold it to a button rasier, but a lot of players just can’t fold before the flop if they had put money in the pot (especially in form of a bet).

If he had AA-KK
he would call your bet, and you would proberlly lose all your chips.

If he had QQ-88
he would raise allin you would fold and have lost a very big portion of your chips.

If he had an A and a face card
he could fold, call or raise

If he had Two face card
he would fold

Since there is a much bigger chance that he has two face card than a large PP, A bet of half the pot is a fine move.

An allin move is OK too, since he could call with a weaker hand like an A and a face card.

Martin Carlsson

*This is not entirely true, see ICM for more information.

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Well, i could easily lose a chunk of chips on this one, but I am guessing our opponent is most likely holding just 2 overs. We should bet half pot and watch him angrily fold his cards as our stack grows.

I definitely agree that there is a decent chance he is trying to trap us, but this smells to me like he is holding AJ, AQ, AK, KQ or KJ.

Also, looking at the set-up, he just lost a bunch to us when he tried limping with QQ. I guess that could add some weight to the idea that he is going to soft play his large PP here and get revenge, but does he really want to make the same mistake twice?

With 30k in the pot, how would a 49k stack facing a 45k stack (who had been very tight before cracking a big PP limp) play this hand, and with what?

Well, he could pretty much play this same way with anything… if he whiffed he would need to put a bunch of chips in the middle to take down the pot, and we are right at the bubble.

I would lead out for 16k and be prepared to get out if necessary. I think we end up with a nice stack, but if not I would be left with 27k, just under 10M and I batten down the hatches and wait for a chance to double after bubble.

With all that said, What happened? Please don’t tell me we raised, he came over the top, we were “pot-committed,” we called and bubbled?

-James

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I really think we have to play this one safe. Despite the bad mood pre-flop, we are near a bubble and we are at risk of being pot commited. Even with two overs or an ace i think that our opponent will reraise if we put out a feeler bet here. Remember, he is gunning for us! With that ragged flop and our big reraise preflop, he has to think that we missed with two high cards. He will most likely see our small bet as weakness and pop it on us, leaving us at risk of being pot commited and being bubbled. We took our shot preflop and he called in early position to a substancial raise. I say we stick it out with 43k on the next hand. Check the flop behind him, hope for a 5 and wait for a better hand against an opponent that isnt out to get you.

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whoops i meant bad MOVE pre-flop

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re: rallenkov, if he has two overcards we are even money before the flop. After the flop a small pocket pair is a big favorite and will win about 74% of the time (depends on straight and flush draws). I think a “feeler bet” is OK here and if he has something like KQo he’s going to have to lay it down. If he pushes I just can’t call; if he has something like 88 we’re basically drawing dead; the only possible hands you’re beating are 22, 44, and two non-club big cards like KQ.

I like Martin’s reasoning above, it sounds a lot like the style of analysis from “Harrington on Hold ‘Em.”

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quarter to half

the problem is the raise preflop – that was the wrong move, a call would have been much better – then you could bet the pot with no reservations on the flop and/or just throw the hand away – in fact against this player right now on the money bubble I might have mucked the fives straight out preflop as there are two smaller stacks at this table alone

as it played, now you are screwed – you have to bet something or you just give away a very important pot – but it ain’t worth risking being the low stack again needing one more elimination to have a payday

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One thing thats crazy about this comment is i like this flop.Why would he check unless he had aces kings, or queens. And if he did wouldn’t he push after you made it 14,000. If he has a medieum pocket pair then why would he give you a free card risking your high card hitting. Im really thinking he has ace king, ace queen, king queen, ace jack, ace 10. The only this i would worry about is pocket 8s pocket 6s, or pocket 3s. You need to bet when you have the lead. if he has too high cards he only has a 24% chance of hitting one at this point. Thats too much so i would bet a little over half the pot incase he feels pot committed. Then if he misses a again then you can put him all in on the turn and he will make a crying call.

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well in fairness if he has like KQ or AJ AQ then he wouldn’t call a 15K bet there. The check is either weak or a trap, so really you’ll either get reraised by AA/KK or he’ll fold. 15K is worth it to try and get the 30K pot imo.

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He has one onf three hands here.
He has a big Ace suited in clubs.
He has a big Ace. (or over valued over cards KQ or something)
He has a pocket pair.

With his call of our raise pre-flop assuming he is not an idiot he did not hit that board. (unles he has the big ace with clubs)

If he is on clubs with two overs….. we need to win the pot here….. we have to raise enough that he doesnot get the odds to call on a draw.

If he has overs only….. we need to win the pot here so he cannot hit his overcards….. we have to raise enough that he doesnot have the odds to call trying to hit an over.

If he has a pair (two-parter) Overpair…. We need to find out if we are good (we need to find out if he has one of the other two hands above.) We need to bet enough that he doesnot have odds to call with the other hands, but also low enough that we can still get away if he comes over the top.

If he has a pair Underpair….. the bets explained above should win the pot.

If he calls this bet we have position to see a free card, or push on the turn. I think that if he calls this bet on the flop, I give up and hope he checks it down. His stack is low enough that if he doesn’t have the nuts, and if the turn and river work out he may be scared enough to check-check.

The ONLY other option here is to give up and if you want to do that then I must ask, why re-raise pre-flop with fives here? That is where this hand was lost.

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i would have to say that the 55 is a fairly strong hand cause you HU in this hand it is very likly he has two over cards here like AK so i would go 3/4 the pot he would most likly fold here

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KataLyzT Reply:
November 2nd, 2011 at 6:36 pm

from how I see it, AK and sometimes AQs (maybe AQo) is 9/10 times most likely going to shove preflop.

he’s out of position and the pot is so big that its hard to play this hand for villain unless he has QQ+.

88-JJ may follow his line of raise then flat 3bet preflop and if it’s these holdings, he is most likely not going to fold postflop 8/10 times…given you havent bluffed that much on his reads (well we can assume this due to insufficient history between us and villain)

best to get a free card and fold if he bets on latter streets.

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Check back, shove over his turn bet?

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