May 17, 2012

Daily Hand Quiz

Game type: Large online poker tournament at Poker Stars
Stage of tourney: Deep in the money, 26 remain. There’s a money jump around 18
Avg stack: 2.7m
Your image: You’ve been bleeding for several orbits
Opponent’s image: Raiser has been using the big stack to push people around, button has been fairly tight.
Your hand: 7♣7♠

The setup: You’ve been nursing a below-average stack for almost an hour now, picking up enough blinds to stay alive and not seeing any cards whatsoever, when the following hand comes up.

You’re dealt 77 in the SB. The table folds to the hijack, who makes it a little under 3x to go. He’s been raising about 35% of the time when he can open from the hijack or later. The button, who has been fairly tight, flat calls.

It’s your action in the SB. What’s your play with sevens?


11 COMMENTS  (Jump to comment form)

Patrick Cherry


Reraise all-in!!!

You have just over 4 orbits left in your stack, and now is a time you have to make a move, you just have to gamble – sooner or later you will have to do it.

I believe this is a perfect timing to reraise for all your chips!!

First of all, the original raiser’s raise is not one I am really scared from. He might be raising with absolutely anything. His hand (most of the times) will not be good enough to call an all-in reraise, with a caller behind him! At other times, when he has a decent hand, he will have 2 overcards. He will definitely call with A-10 or better due to the small size of your reraise. In that case, it will be a coin flip, and in a situation like this, where I really need chips, I will take a 50-50 gladly, especially that I am a very slight favorite in the hand. There will be times where he will actually have a hand ofcourse! So don’t be surprized if he called with a pair greater than yours, but against an aggressive bully like him, I just wouldn’t think he really has a big hand. The chances are much bigger that he has a weaker hand than mine.

As for the caller, I also am not worried. I really do think he will fold. He has a huge stack, yet decided to just call the raise. To me, that just shouts weakness. If he had a decent pocket pair, any pair higher than a pair of 7s he would have reraised for sure. He will try to protect his hand, if his pocket pair wasn’t a monster, or if he had a big hand really he could juice up the pot for later. The fact that he did not reraise shows me that he has got a marginal hand. Some sort of suited connector or a small pocket pair, or also some kind of Q-J or J-10 hand. He is not calling wth these hands I think if we reraise all-in!

Due to us being in the SB, we are in good position, preflop only that is, to move in too. There is only one player that has not acted yet, and I would not worry much about him.

So now, to sum up our situation, it is a clearly all-in or fold situation as our stack size does not allow any other move.

We have a raiser and a caller, who we believe are probably not too strong, our hand is decent, and we are desperate for chips, so what do we do – WE JUST HAVE TO MOVE IN!!

Sure if any one of the two calls, we are probably in a tough situation, most probably even-money or 4-1 dogs, but the call is not likely, and the gamble is necessary! In the worst cases, you never know when you will strike a seven on the board!!

Just one last thing. If you read Harrington’s book, there was a move (which I forgot the name of), where Harrington says that if there is a raiser and a caller, you can come over the top, with a bluff, and most probably succeed. I believe our all-in here is very similar to that move. Even though it’s not completely a bluff, we really don’t want to get called. So, given that our reraise all-in will most probably work, and with over 700k in the pot, if we pick up the pot there and then, we will almost double up!!

It’s definitely worth the all-in!

[Reply]

Geronimo


Your stack is too small to make them fold to an all-in. So your best hope is the big stack has A5 and the button has AT or something. That way the probability of an Ace showing up is smaller and you’re only afraid of the T. If however they’re holding QT and AJ you’re screwed! I’d still go all-in because you’re quite desperate and have a decent chance of tripling up.

[Reply]

Rallenkov


Your M ist just a little over 4, so shove and Gamble because thats what you got to do sooner or even sooner anyway.

[Reply]

drhoho


This is a tricky spot imo.

Reasons to fold:
You will get at least one caller, and there is a chance that you will get two or face a higher pair. If you fold, you will be in a good position to pick up a few blinds in the hands to come.

Reasons to push all in:
In case you only get one caller with two overcards, you will be racing for a pot with ½mil added, which is an excellent chance for getting back in the game. And still, you are rather shortrstacked as it is.

I am a wuss, I would fold most of the time.

[Reply]

Cristiano


Even know I am hoping to push with any reasonable hand (low M, raiser has being agressive), and it is indeed a push/fold situation, having a tight player and the original raiser with the proper odds to call, I believe 7s is too much of an underdog against these two guys. Were against one single player it would be all in for sure, but as explained by the staff, there is always another hand.
Imo, pushing with any two cards (depending on the action that comes to the button) has good folding equity for the next couple rounds.

[Reply]

matt tag


The Harrington play you’re referring to is the “squeeze” play. You’re squeezing the original raiser with the caller behind. If you can get him to fold, you have a good chance to take the pot down preflop.

Gordon also calls it the “fish n chips”. Usually this is done when in position, but since we’re pushing all in, position doesn’t really matter.

I agree with pushing all in – it’s the perfect spot. If the caller has 88+, oh well, I’ve still got 12% chance to catch my set.

[Reply]

Ally


Aw-in-baby!

No question it’s push or fold here. And, I’m not sure who rights up the analysis here, but I think they’ve taken a vacation today. No offense.

Let’s look at what happens when we shove:

Hijack:
–folds from squeeze. His opening requirements are very low (any two cards) and there is another big stack in the hand.
–calls? I don’t think so; either reraise or fold; I doubt a call here.
–reraises? possibly to isolate.

Button: If Hijack folds, button really has to call with any two cards here, but they still may fold. They may be playing a hand for implied value against other big stack–a lower pp, 65ss types of hands, along with two broadway. If the Hijack isolates, button is probably folding. In the rare case of a hijack call, the button probably calls as well.

So, I really do like a shove here. While it may be unlikely to take the pot without showdown, we are likely to force at least one fold (especially if the hijack isolates) and we will most likely get our money in in a coin flip situation but getting 3-1 on our money. I’ll take those odds any day.

And, if the hijack folds and the button calls with 55, you’re going to be a huge favorite to triple up.

Fold is not awful either, but the odds of us getting AA or KK in the next couple of hands is not good. We’ve got to try to double up soon to help us make it deeper in this event.

[Reply]

Zot95


Re-raise, all-in.

Even if the levels don’t go up, by the next time the blinds hit us, we’ll be facing an M of under 3… that’s dire. In this situation, I would be under a lot of pressure to win some chips by the end of this orbit. I agree with the analysis that you’ll have some chances over the next 4 hands to make a move, since you’re dealing with smaller stacks that you can scare. Let’s just hope that you can get in first and/or get some cards. But based on the read, I think this is a pretty good situation.

Based on the profile on the hijack, he has a fairly wide range here. You’re probably not facing total garbage, but I think you’re mostly ahead here. The button I think you’re definitely ahead of. I would expect a premium pair to re-raise here. I guess you could be facing slow played aces, or something like 99 taking a flop… but I think you’re in good shape here.

The only thing I’m worried about is a higher pocket pair, which due to the reads and how the hands have been played, is not terribly likely. Even other worst case scenarios (such as both opponents calling, having 4 distinct high cards) leaves us at 33% equity, which is fine when you’re looking at tripling up.

[Reply]

HIDAMAN


Check to see if you have balls. Go all in.

[Reply]

Yaba


Raise all-in.

There is a small chance you will it right there (say 10%) and a smaller chance you are dominated by a bigger pair (say 10%) so lets cancel those two scenerios out (essentially a push).

So if you are up against AK, AQ, etc.you are slightly ahead. You are desparate and those small percentages add up over time, so get your chips in when you are mathematically correct to do so.

There may also be value added (table image) but probably not.

[Reply]

Yaba


btw , I think that the all-in isolation play with AQ makes tons of sense as the player in the middle will most certainly fold.

He definitely oesn’t have AK or QQ or he would have re-raised pre-flop.

He might still have AA or KK if he is a poker guru (I might slow play those hands against a aggressive big stack in that spot).

[Reply]

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