Jacks facing a third raise, high stakes no limit hold em cash game

I’m a little confused with the answer choices here - options one and two seem pretty parallel. They should be combined as one choice (which coincidentally is the choice I’m making).

Staff is on the money here. Since we’ll have first crack on the flop, I think there’s really no problem here with calling and seeing if we like it. I don’t think there’s a whole lot that raising will accomplish here that you can’t do with a call/flop shove. QQ isn’t folding to a repop. Nothing we can really chase out with a raise that we don’t want to play against.
So my line is pretty straightforward. I’ll shove any flop with no overs and probably one with a Q, and be most likely to check/fold on an A or K flop.

wielded Muslims chubbiest herbs Braun:plowshare sew

This one had me stumped at first, but I figured he’s unlikely to make this play with AA or KK and so I agree with the staff. Check-folding to an A or K on the flop.

When you die and see a poker table in front of you with an empty seat - you’ll think you’ve gone to heaven. But after sitting down and getting dealt pocket Jacks 10 times in a row, you’ll know for sure you’re in hell.
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I agree that A and B are the same choice. I think it’s worth a call - lots of low flops leave you ahead, not to mention the 1 in 8 chance for the trips. I love when A J 5 come up in these situations - I stand to make a lot of money. Of course, I could be playing against AA with the 4-bet and stand to lose a lot of money, too…

The different choices for A and B are based on the fact that many hands playing the way OMG has played his so far would have an A or a K in them, so if the flop did not have either of those two cards, you would push. I would choose A, and DHQ rationale for why is spot on.

A and B are the same. That was a test … yeah, a test. To see if you were paying attention. Yeah. It certainly was not a half-drunken typo.

Alright, I voted to fold and at first having read the staff response and the comments thought that I was dead wrong. And, maybe I am, but I’ve done some math which seems to make this very close and perhaps showing that folding here is the more profitable play.

I guess for me, this really comes down to the hand range we can put him on here. If his range is a lot wider than what I’d put him on, then calling and shoving a flop without an A or K does make sense.

I, however, put him on QQ+ or AK here. Given our hand, the odds of him having any specific pocket pair are about 0.45% and the odds of him holding AK is about 1.21%. The odds of AA, KK, or QQ is then about 1.36%. Given his range then, it’s slightly more likely that he has an overpair than AK.

A couple other things and then the math.

The odds of AK hitting the flop is about 33%.
The odds of us hitting our set is about 12.5%.
The EV of folding is $0.

What is the EV of calling $9k more and then shoving the flop with no A or K?

50% overpair X 12.5% we hit set X +48,000 = +$EV 3000
50% overpair X 33% AK on flop X -9000 = - $EV 1485
50% overpair X 54.5% all other flops X - 34000 = -$EV 9265
50% AK X 33% AK on flop X -9000 = -$EV 4500
50% AK X 67% no AK X +24000 = +$EV 12000

Add these up to get to -$EV of 250.

Obviously, these numbers are very rough and I discount the times when we hit our set against an overset or the other types of flops we can see where AK might call our shove with two overcards and a flush draw. And I do not include the times when AK pairs and we also hit our set. And, I discount the times when we shove against an overpair and we hit our set on the river. I guess someone could use pokerstove to calculate the equity vs. these ranges, but I think it general, it’s very close between the call/shove play and the fold.

I can tell you with certainty that every single time I’ve ever taken the call shove approach on a hand like this, the villain flips up an overpair and I lose an entire buy-in. I realize that I don’t play these stakes, but a 3rd raise is almost always AA/KK, sometimes QQ, and on occassion AK.

If our hand was just slightly better; QQ, I like this play a lot more as it takes away one more overpair and gives us one more pair (JJ) that could give us action and is behind. I really don’t think that TT is making this play very often…

Anyway, I do like the call/shove approach, kind of a stop and go move. But, it’s close between this and a fold.

I agree with Ally’s 1st impression.
This is my least favorite hand because it is the most difficult for me to lay it down. Brunson considers this a ’small pair’ And I have to remind myself of that also.
Know this - in all of your opponents holdings but 9-9 or 10-10 he has at least one overcard and that makes you a 70% favorite at best and that’s in the best case scenario of your more likely situations on his holdings.
I’ve been playing tight lately (or at least trying to remind myself to, and I’d fold it and wait for a better spot.)

This is a range question, which determines the answer. We might be behind his range however we must look at the odds we have and the equity we need to make a break even call.

What I must say though is that calling here is definitely 100% wrong. We are either 5bet raising AI or folding. Once you reach a certain level calling becomes a bad play. If we think we are ahead, villain is not folding AK, AQ, AJ, TT 99 once we go all in here nad by calling we are creating a difficult decision on the flop.
What happens when an A or K (comes 43% of the time). You really wanna fold this. He may not have hit and we are giving him a free card to check or an opportunity to bluff if we do.

Anyway I do not have enough information to state what his range is, but the decision of AI or fold is pretty marginal. I usually go AI but thats the style I play and I know I will get called by a lot worse.

Ohh btw Ally.

In shorthanded scenarios it is quite frequent to see a lot of light 4bet and 4 bets bluffs so his range will not be that tight.
Though our decision is still pretty marginal