Daily Hand Quiz

hmm…. I don’t like checking here.
When I face a reraise after my bet I at least know where I might stand.
Otherwise I have no idea what I’m against and I don’t think that we can make any money on the river.
So I like to make a small bet here and find out if Capone has a real hand or just a bit of a hand.

btw: don’t like the PF play here…

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I think the key thing here is that this is a cash game not a tourny. How I have learnt not to be greedy in Cash game Poker!!

On the flop you had the nuts and played it perfectly, at this point I would only be worried about a larger 8 say K8 or A8 but the liklihood of that is so low you have to get on with it. He re-raised pre-flop so I think even HU he has to have some kind of holding.

When the Q comes and is checked I would check aswell, these are my reasons:

1. Because if you have the best hand you are hiding it and can wait and see on the River what he does. I think it gives you the best chance of getting more chips.

2. The Q is not a great card to see. It opens up the range of holdings that have you beat from a higher paired 8 to QQ, Q8, but would he have raised so high Pre Flop with anything other than A8 or QQ? Even so I think erring on the side of caution here is OK.

3. You are going to call a bet on the river, have only 1 or 2 hands to worry about so keep the pot as small as you can. I personally think this stinks of AQ or AK where it was re-raised Pre-flop and then continue betted. I would check it down and if faced with a bet on the river, grit my teeth and call!!!

If on the River you get betted into really heavily then its a tough call. If its checked you can decide then what to do. But don’t get greedy!!!

I’m still learning so any critisism is welcomed!

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I’d take almost exactly the same line that Townsend did. I’m almost positive I’m ahead here, and there’s no way I’m not getting it all in with trips. I like a 2/3 bet in this spot, with an instacall should he raise.
Bummer that he had us with the case 8. That sure as hell isn’t a bullet I’m going to dodge.
I’m instacalling the push, then thanking FT for that river (while cursing it for putting me in that spot to begin with), and playing the next hand.

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Dave, your thoughts aren’t bad except I couldn’t disagree more with #2. That Q is just about the best turn we could see (other than obviously an 8 or 6). The ONLY hand that catches up to us with that card is QQ. I don’t think we’re getting 2-outed here by QQ, and I’ll take that turn card any day of the week. I’m happier getting it all in on the turn than I am on the flop, because that’s one of the safest cards we could ask for.

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Check. I’ll let him bet his AQo.

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I voted bet more than half pot, but I like the check aswell.
You don’t want to look like a value bet, you want to look like some pocket pair that wants to know if its good. That is why I don’t like the small bet. The check is OK too, migth get him to valuebet two pairs on river.
And for the risk of being beat: In an aggressive game HU with trips, I can’t consider that, just bad luck.

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It’ll be fun to see what Ally says on this one

Yes playing trips at full speed is the ‘right’ thing to do, but I picked check and here’s why:

It’s standard heads up that he’ll re-raise you with a face card and a rag as long as it’s suited (I can almost guarantee that his J-8 was suited.)
However what else would he raise with? A pocket pair of course, you can’t be afraid that it was queens (although it’s possible) and you have to assume you are WAY ahead here. Despite the reality that he did indeed have the 4th 8 in the deck, it’s not likely at all – I’d do the math but it’s boring, and we all know it’s very unlikely with a draw of 4 on the deck preflop that two eights came out, then the other two on the flop.
Checking on the turn tells your opponent that you have an overpair to the board but one that can be beat by the Q that fell – you’re telling him you have nines tens or jacks – which fits your betting story sofar, and this is why he is now waiting for the check raise or to take control of the betting next round.
Checking is the correct play to getting all of his chips – if you think about it, it was your opponent that got lucky with this hand in general by picking up the other 8.

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Joe, you get your wish…

I’m playing exactly as Townsend played it and exactly as Jeremy would have played it.

Sure, a bet here is folding out quite a few hands that we have beat, and is pot committing ourselves to any hand that we do not beat. I’m not folding my trips heads up. If he’s got 22, QQ, Q8, or a higher 8, God bless him.

So, we have to assume that we have the best hand and if we don’t have the best hand we have to be willing to go broke here.

Now, let’s look at value. If we assume that he has a worse hand (again, if he has a better hand, it’s irrelevant since we’re going broke), how do we extract the most value?

Well, if he doesn’t have anything at all (no pair, no draw), we’re not getting any more value here on the turn, unless he decides to make a play on the pot.

If he’s holding nothing and we check the turn, there’s only a 12% chance or so for him to improve (a hand like AK with 6 outs) in which case he will check/call on the paired board. So, 12% of the time, we gain a 2/3rd pot bet (about $27k), by checking the flop. Of course, there still is the chance he makes a move with air here as well.

If he’s holding a hand like KQ/AQ, he’s going to have a tough time getting away here and may even jam it in on the turn even though he drawing to only two outs. But, if we check the turn, we lose a ton of value, about $40k of value if he’s holding one of these hands.

If he’s holding a hand like AA/KK, again, he may get it all in if we bet the turn; otherwise he may check/call the river and we lose $40k in value.

If he’s holding a hand like JJ/TT/99, I’m not really sure we can get any more value anyway. The Q just hit and there are now a ton of hands that have him crushed.

So, do we check here, giving away the free card and do we gain value? I don’t think so. It’s possible that he makes a play on the pot if we check here, but it’s not a really good spot. There is a slight chance that his hand does improve on the river to get us a little more value, but the odds of that are unlikely. While it’s unlikely, we could let our villain hit a two outer for free and river a full house to beat us. If he’s holding TT/JJ and hits his set on the river, we’ve now made a huge mistake.

I just don’t see us gaining a lot of extra value on the river. Maybe the Q helped him to give us more value, otherwise, I’ll be fine taking it down right here.

Again, if he has us beat, I’m fine going broke here (and, of course he does have a better hand), but we luckbox the river and come away with our money back. While in this case we were behind, I just think that we have to go with this hand. There are seriously only two hands that beat us on that flop and I don’t see either of those re-raising; 22 or a higher 8. A8 is reraising there? Well, maybe, but it depends on how the session is going.

Anyway, just raise here, but leave yourself some room to fold to let him occassionally make a play on you and then you can call and take his whole stack.

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its heads up and what are the chances of him having an 8. 46/1. and thats good enough for me

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